NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 11
In an NFL season filled with wild finishes, unexpected upsets and some extremely tight playoff races, the battle to be named league MVP has featured some of the biggest surprises.
We're just over halfway through the season, and there's absolutely no clarity on who might take home the NFL's top individual honor.
Lamar Jackson was knocked from the top spot among favorites after a mistake-filled loss against the Cleveland Browns. Three of the top four favorites—Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes—were all on bye this past week.
There's nothing close to a sure thing in this year's race, but that shouldn't keep fans so inclined from making a wager or two along the way. Let's examine the latest MVP odds and a few betting tips for Week 11.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 11
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Jalen Hurts +280 (bet $100 to win $280)
Patrick Mahomes +300
Lamar Jackson +425
Tua Tagovailoa +550
Joe Burrow +1000
Christian McCaffrey +1800
Brock Purdy +2000
C.J. Stroud +2500
Jared Goff +3000
Josh Allen +3500
Beware of Jalen Hurts as the Favorite
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Hurts' stop atop the favorite's list feels like a product of him quarterbacking the team with the league's best record. The Philadelphia Eagles signal-caller has been quite good at times, but he's playing at a level below last year's.
Hurts has already thrown more interceptions (eight) than he did in 2022 (six) and he's averaging a full yards per rushing attempt less.
On a positive note, Hurts' QB rating is on the upswing and is just below where it was at the end of last season (97.0 versus 101.5). However, his odds aren't all that enticing, and the Eagles have some very tough games on the horizon.
Hurts will play Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs this week, and Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in Week 12. After that are the San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks before an "easy" three-game stretch against the New York Giants (twice) and Arizona Cardinals.
While Hurts could cement his case for MVP in games against Mahomes, Allen and Brock Purdy, some stout defenses lie ahead that could force mistakes and knock him from the top spot.
Abandon Ship with Josh Allen
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Mistakes are precisely why it's time to abandon Allen as an MVP candidate. The Buffalo Bills' signal-caller had a horrific game in Monday's loss to the Denver Broncos, finishing with two interceptions and a fumble lost on a botched handoff.
Allen now leads the NFL with 11 interceptions, and his mistakes are costing the Bills games. On Tuesday, they helped cost offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey his job.
Quarterbacks coach Joe Brady will take over as Buffalo's playcaller, but there's no guarantee that he'll get Allen trending back in the right direction. At this point in the season, it may already be too late.
And it may be too late for Buffalo to mount a playoff push. The remaining schedule is extremely tough, highlighted by games against the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, New York Jets, Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins.
It's highly unlikely that we'll see a regular-season MVP playing from a non-playoff team. If Allen plays an active role in keeping Buffalo out of the postseason, there's no chance that he'll even garner consideration.
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Buy into C.J. Stroud While There's Still Value
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Last week, we suggested buying into Houston Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud at the immense value of +13000. The reasoning was that if Stroud somehow managed to out-duel Joe Burrow and lead the Texans to an upset victory, his odds would shift dramatically.
That's exactly what Stroud did, throwing for 356 yards, one touchdown and one interception while rushing for a touchdown and leading a game-winning field goal drive at the end of regulation.
Unsurprisingly, Stroud's odds have jumped from +13000 to +2500. There's still value in betting on Stroud, but the time to buy in is now.
Stroud has already broken one rookie record, passing for 470 yards in the Week 9 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He's on pace to break Andrew Luck's rookie season-long yardage record, and that would probably be enough to win the MVP award if Houston also makes the postseason.
Through 10 weeks, Stroud also leads the NFL in yards per game and touchdown-to-interception ratio—a double feat only achieved by Mahomes, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning before Stroud, according to ESPN Bet.
If the Texans avoid a letdown against the Arizona Cardinals this week and beat the Jaguars in Week 12, they'll be in the driver's seat in the AFC South—and Stroud could very easily become the MVP favorite.
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