NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 10
The NFL MVP race saw some changes in Week 9. Notably, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson jumped to the top of the favorites list—now tied with Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes—after a strong game against the Seattle Seahawks.
Jackson finished 21-of-26 for 187 yards with 60 rushing yards.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow jumped up the list too, following a head-to-head victory over another early-season MVP favorite, Josh Allen. While we're only at the halfway mark in the season, the MVP front-runners are beginning to establish themselves.
Let's take a look at the favorites entering Week 10 and some MVP wagering tips.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 10
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Lamar Jackson +350 (bet $100 to win $350)
Jalen Hurts +350
Patrick Mahomes +350
Tua Tagovailoa +650
Joe Burrow +700
Christian McCaffrey +1400
Josh Allen +2000
Trevor Lawrence +2000
Brock Purdy +3500
Tyreek Hill +4000
Beware Jackson as a Co-Favorite
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We're not going to suggest that Jackson can't earn his second MVP award this season. In fact, we suggested buying into Jackson back in Week 3, when he carried +1200 odds. Fans should, however, exercise caution if targeting Jackson at the current odds.
The potentially reward no longer significantly outweighs the risk.
Jackson has been terrific more often than not this season. He's completing a league-high 71.5 percent of his passes with 1,954 yards, nine touchdowns, three interceptions and a 100.8 passer rating. He's also rushed for 440 yards and five touchdowns.
As is the case with Mahomes and Hurts, Jackson could wind up being named MVP simply by being the quarterback for the team with the league's best record. Yes, the Ravens have been that good over the past month. However, Jackson has had the occasional mistake.
The 26-year-old lost a fumble in Baltimore's loss to the Indianapolis Colts, and he had two turnovers in the loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. he's had nine turnovers on the season, equaling the number of his touchdown passes.
Jackson's lack of prolific passing numbers could cost him when it comes to MVP voting. He remains the preeminent dual-threat quarterback in the NFL, but his style of play is no longer a novelty.
The last time Jackson was named MVP, he rushed for more than 1,000 yards and led the league in touchdown passes. He's currently on pace to achieve neither feat.
Buy into Burrow Now
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Burrow is officially back to pre-injury form, which thrusts him right back into the MVP conversation. While he wasn't perfect against Buffalo on Sunday night, he was close to it.
The 26-year-old finished 31-of-44 for 348 yards and two touchdowns.
The Bengals have won four in a row, the last two decisively over playoff-caliber opponents, and it's fair to wonder if Cincinnati has many more losses ahead of them. Burrow's odds aren't as attractive as they were last week (+2000), but it's worth getting in now before he becomes the odds-on favorite.
This could transpire sooner than later. The Bengals will have a chance to establish themselves as perhaps the top threat in the AFC when they face the Ravens less than two weeks from now.
If Burrow bests Jackson in their Week 11 head-to-head matchup, he's likely to rocket to the top of the favorites list. The fact that Cincinnati played a horrible brand of football during Burrow's early-season calf ailment only further solidifies his claim as the league's most important player.
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Consider Taking a Flier on C.J. Stroud
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Houston Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud officially threw his hat into the MVP ring in Week 9. He threw for a rookie-record 470 yards and five touchdown passes and delivered the game-winning touchdown drive against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with less than a minute remaining.
"I'll tell you what—C.J. Stroud doesn't look like a rookie to me," Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield said, per ESPN's D.J. Bien-Aime. "That guy, he's so impressive. Looks like a polished NFL quarterback. So hats off to him. He played extremely, extremely well today."
Stroud has thrown for 2,270 yards with 14 touchdowns, only one interception and a 102.9 passer rating. He has Houston—which hasn't had more than four wins in any of the last three seasons—in the wild-card mix at 4-4.
At +13000, Stroud is a tremendous value at midseason. He leads the league in interception percentage (0.4), and he's looking like a lock for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He'll go head-to-head against Burrow this weekend, and Stroud's odds will shorten dramatically if he somehow guides Houston to the upset.
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