NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 3
The race for the 2023 NFL MVP award gained a new front-runner in Week 2, though the overall picture is still incredibly unclear.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the new favorite after a good-not-great performance. Tagovailoa was spectacular in Week 1 but finished Sunday night's game against the New England Patriots 21-of-30 for 249 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
Tagovailoa's rise may have more to do with the field than his own performance. Patrick Mahomes had another underwhelming game, while Joe Burrow had another dud. Now, Burrow could be out for a Week 3 matchup with the Los Angeles Rams.
"Bengals' HC Zac Taylor told reporters that it was hard to say whether Joe Burrow would be ready to play next Monday night vs. the Rams due to his aggravated calf injury," ESPN's Adam Schefter posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Heading into the season, this was not how the MVP battle was expected to go. Of course, it's still very early, which could allow bettors to take advantage of some enticing Week 3 values.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites
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Tua Tagovailoa +600 (bet $100 to win $600)
Patrick Mahomes +700
Josh Allen +800
Jalen Hurts +850
Lamar Jackson +1200
Trevor Lawrence +1500
Dak Prescott +1500
Justin Herbert +1800
Joe Burrow +2000
Target Lamar Jackson While Odds Are Still Favorable
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Back in 2019, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson was the NFL's unanimous MVP, but he's fallen off the map a bit since. Injuries have plagued his past two campaigns, and Jackson remains relatively low on the list of early favorites.
That could soon change. The 26-year-old has already seen his odds jump from 15-1 to 12-1 over the past week. If you like Jackson's potential, now is the time to jump in on his MVP futures.
Jackson hasn't been perfect. He's thrown one interception and lost a fumble. However, he's also completed 74.5 percent of his passes, thrown for 406 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 92 yards.
Perhaps more importantly, Jackson has Baltimore at 2-0 despite losing starting running back J.K. Dobbins to a torn Achilles and missing star tight end Mark Andrews in Week 1.
The quarterback on the team with the league's best record often finds himself in the MVP conversation at year's end. The Ravens could wind up being that team.
Jackson is still developing in new coordinator Todd Monken's offense, and he's been carrying the Ravens anyway. If he stays healthy and lifts Baltimore to the AFC's No. 1 seed, Jackson can become the MVP again.
Jump in on Jordan Love Now
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The Green Bay Packers are only 1-1, but they have to feel like big winners two weeks into the season. Quarterback Jordan Love has been fantastic since taking the reins of Green Bay's offense, aside from the occasional hiccup.
Love's baffling sneak attempt without the football in Week 2 was one of the few blunders we've seen from the 24-year-old this season.
"I messed that operation up," Love said, per Zach Kruse of Packers Wire. "I said the wrong thing. It's not a play until I give the 'live' word. I gave the wrong live word…just messed it up."
Love leads the league with six touchdown passes and a 118.7 passer rating. He has yet to throw an interception. He's made only three career starts.
Now, there's risk here because of Love's inexperience. He could continue to grow this season, or he could hit the proverbial wall as opposing defenses get more tape on him. There's also no guarantee that Green Bay will be a legitimate contender, and MVPs don't usually come from losing teams.
However, Love's +6000 odds are worth a flier at this point in the season.
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Avoid Deshaun Watson Entirely
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Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is still among the relative favorites for league MVP at +2800. Those are shorter odds than those of Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff and Tyreek Hill.
While the MVP award has become a quarterback accolade, Hill is a better bet than Watson at this point.
The reality is that Cleveland's quarterback has been a disaster. He played poorly in 2022, but after missing more than a year of football, that wasn't shocking. What's surprising is that Watson looks even more lost than he was last winter.
Watson's poor Week 1 performance was masked by a dominant Browns defense that got a win over the Cincinnati Bengals. In Week 2, he actively lost Cleveland the game with turnovers, bad decisions, undisciplined play and a total lack of pocket awareness.
Through two games, Watson has completed 55.1 percent of his passes for 389 yards with two touchdowns and four turnovers. His 69.1 passer rating is higher than only those of Zach Wilson and rookie Bryce Young.
With running back Nick Chubb done for the season, opposing defenses can now focus fully on making Watson look even worse. At this point, it's hard to envision Watson being an above-average starter ever again.
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