NFL Week 10 Survivor Pool Tips: Best Picks and Strategies to Stay Alive
We've reached the halfway point in the 2023 NFL season, which means a lot of survivor pools are probably looking pretty empty. Things are always difficult at this point in the season, but this year has provided a lot of upsets.
The Minnesota Vikings pulled off the latest shocker, riding Joshua Dobbs—who only arrived following a mid-week trade—to a 31-28 victory over the Atlanta Falcons.
This week, there are few heavy favorites to trust, and with the Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles on bye, survivor participants are running out of options.
Below, you'll find some advice for staying alive for another week, using the latest Week 10 odds as a guideline.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
General Survivor Tips for Week 10
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When it comes to survivor picks, it's best to start with the games to avoid. Prime-time matchups, short weeks and divisional games are all typically tricky to predict. So are volatile teams, so we'd suggest avoiding Thursday night's game between the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers.
Carolina has been one of the most consistent underperformers this season. However, Chicago hasn't been much better and has some quarterback uncertainty. Rookie Tyson Bagent might start on Thursday, or we could see the return of Justin Fields (thumb).
Bears coach Matt Eberflus has stated that Fields will start if he's healthy enough to go. While Fields played very well in his last two full games before the injury, his career has been highlighted by up-and-down performances.
The Bears are slight 3.5-point favorites over the one-win Panthers for a reason.
The Baltimore Ravens are bigger favorites (+6) over the rival Cleveland Browns, and they steamrolled Cleveland 28-3 in the first meeting. However, divisional games are unpredictable, and the Browns will have Deshaun Watson under center instead of ill-prepared rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
If you haven't used Baltimore yet, it might be best to save it for the Week 14 matchup with the Los Angeles Rams.
We'd also suggest avoiding the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 6.5-point favorites over the Houston Texans. The Bengals are arguably the hottest team in football, but rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has made Houston a legitimate threat.
The Bengals will probably win at home, but after watching Stroud set a rookie record with 470 yards and five touchdowns in Week 9, Cincinnati should be considered a back-end survivor pick.
Trust the Cowboys Against the Giants
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The closest thing to a true lock on the Week 10 schedule is the Dallas Cowboys over the New York Giants.
Dallas is a heavy 16-point favorite over the Giants, and that line might be too low. Dallas shellacked the Giants back in Week 1, racing to an early lead and cruising to a 40-0 victory.
That game was in New York, and the Giants had starting quarterback Daniel Jones under center. With Jones done for the year with a torn ACL and Tyrod Taylor on injured reserve (ribs), it'll be third-stringer Tommy DeVito against Micah Parsons and the Cowboys defense.
Dak Prescott is coming off one of his best games of 2023, albeit in a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, and he shouldn't struggle much against New York's up-and-down defense. If Prescott does have an off day, Dallas can always lean on Tony Pollard and the ground game against the Giants' 25th-ranked run defense.
Upsets do happen. Any survivor participant who picked Dallas to beat the Arizona Cardinals early in the year knows this. However, the banged-up Giants just don't have the overall talent needed to hang with the Cowboys in Arlington.
Sneak in the Bills If Possible
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The Buffalo Bills have been a very inconsistent team recently, and they're playing in the always risky Monday night slot. However, now is as good of a time as any to back Buffalo in a survivor pool.
The Denver Broncos are coming off an upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs and their bye. They have momentum, Russell Wilson has gained confidence, and the defense finally looks like a functional unit. However, Buffalo is still the better team by a significant margin.
After losing to the Bengals in a fairly decisive manner on Sunday night, Buffalo will also be motivated to get back into the win column. The Bills are 7.5-point favorites here, and if they can't beat the Broncos at home, they can't consider themselves title contenders.
Now is the time to sneak in Buffalo because the upcoming slate is daunting. The Bills have a rematch with the division-rival New York Jets in Week 11, followed by a visit to Philadelphia. The Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers are then on tap after the Week 13 bye.
The New England Patriots—who already upset Buffalo once—and Miami Dolphins round out schedule, making this the last "easy" win remaining for the Bills.
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