MLB MVP 2023: Full Odds, Predictions for Newly Named Finalists in AL, NL Races
The races for the American League and National League MVP awards are officially down to three players each.
The six finalists were revealed Monday night along with the finalists for all of MLB's top awards.
The MVP is the most coveted, of course, but is it the most compelling? That depends if you think anyone but the favorites—Shohei Ohtani in the AL, Ronald Acuña Jr. in the NL—has a chance to pull an upset.
We'll check the latest odds and see what our crystal ball thinks.
AL MVP Odds, Prediction
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AL MVP Odds*
- Shohei Ohtani (-20,000)
- Corey Seager (+2,000)
- Marcus Semien (+15,000)
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (h/t Covers.com) as of September 25, when they went off the board.
When these odds went off the board, they actually included two other names: Julio Rodriguez (+5,000) and Bobby Witt Jr. (+20,000). It seems fitting, though, in the afterglow of the Texas Rangers' first World Series title for the champs to be represented by two finalists.
Seager and Semien earned these spots, too. Seager, the World Series MVP, had a spectacular season held back only by the injury issues that limited him to 119 games. Incredibly, that was all the time he needed to tally 33 homers, 96 RBI and 88 runs. Semien, meanwhile, played all 162 games for the Rangers, contributing 29 homers, 122 runs, 100 RBI and 14 steals.
Both are deserving candidates and could win the award in a normal season. Ohtani, though, made this a unique race by dominating as both a hitter and pitcher before elbow and oblique injuries forced him off the field.
Even though his campaign closed in early September, it was still the best seen in the American League. At the plate, he slugged 44 homers, swiped 20 bags and contributed a combined 197 runs and RBI. On the mound, he went 10-5 with a 3.14 ERA and 167 strikeouts in 132 innings.
This feels as obvious as the oddsmakers saw things in late September.
Prediction: Ohtani wins the AL MVP by a wide margin
NL MVP Odds, Prediction
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NL MVP Odds*
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (-600)
- Mookie Betts (+300)
- Freddie Freeman (+11,000)
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (h/t Covers.com) as of September 25, when they went off the board.
While the NL side of the playoff bracket told a different tale, the regular season was all about the Braves and Dodgers. So, it's not surprising to see the two teams taking up all three spots here. In fact, the only other player with listed odds when these went off the board was Acuña's teammate, Matt Olson (plus-9,000).
Freeman is clearly the third banana in this bunch, and award-voters will view him that way when they cast their ballots. He was spectacular—29 homers, 131 runs, 102 RBI and 23 steals—but with competition like this, spectacular actually isn't good enough.
Not when Betts and Acuña spent the campaign doing otherworldly things.
Betts exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. His versatility was ultra valuable in the field, and at the plate, he was nearly impossible to retire. He wound up posting a .307/.408/.579 slash line with 39 homers, 126 runs, 107 RBI and 14 steals.
Those would be award-winning numbers in a lot of years, but they won't hold up this time. Not after the historic season Acuña just had.
He not only gained entry into the vaunted 40-40 club, he established the 40-50, 40-60 and ultimately 40-70 clubs. When the curtains finally dropped on his magical season, he had paired his 41 home runs with a colossal 73 stolen bases, rounding out his stat line with 149 runs scored, 106 RBI and a .337/.416/.596 slash line.
Prediction: Despite the competition, Acuña wins in a landslide
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