Knicks' Way-Too-Early Overreactions After 1st Week of 2023-24 Season
The New York Knicks have opened the 2023-24 NBA season playing championship-level defense.
If only there weren't also playing lottery-level offense.
It's been tough sledding to start for coach Tom Thibodeau's team, which has only cleared 110 points once and fallen south of 90 points in two of its past three outings. Is this something Knicks fans should expect going forward, though?
To help set expectations, we'll tackle three early season takes to determine if they are overreactions or not.
Julius Randle Is a Pumpkin Again
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Julius Randle has always put up numbers, but they haven't always been super impactful or the most efficient. Before getting to the Big Apple in 2019, he seemed a bit like a source of empty stats.
He, of course, turned things around in a major way and wound up earning All-NBA honors in two of the past three seasons. However, that one year in between was rough, and his shooting start to this campaign has been even worse. Bricklayers might marvel at his disastrous 27.6/25.8/64 shooting slash.
Verdict: Overreaction
Knicks fans should now by know there's some inherent inconsistency in Randle's game. His shot diet isn't always the easiest to succeed with, and he can be prone to bouts of tunnel vision.
This doesn't look like his worst form, though. Setting aside the shooting rates, he is taking smarter shots (plenty of threes and paint looks) and not forcing the issue. He has rarely had a wider gap between his assist percentage (24.3) and turnover percentage (14.7), per Basketball-Reference.
Lack of Star Power Is Holding Them Back
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The Knicks might have multiple All-Star candidates, but they don't have a superstar. That's why any time one hits the market, you're sure to hear a mention of this team.
New York needs a go-to option who can unlock this offense when it gets stuck in the mud. Randle, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett just don't have enough to ace that role night after night.
Verdict: Not an overreaction
Not only is this not an overreaction, it's also not a new development. The Knicks have been linked to superstars for years now, and that keeps happening for a reason.
Super-high-end talent is a must to contend for a championship, and New York just doesn't quite have that. Brunson was the highest-rated Knick in B/R's top-100 ranking for this season, and he only came in at 36th overall.
RJ Barrett Found a Three-Ball
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Shooting has long been labeled as a swing skill for Barrett and for good reason. He is a really skilled scorer inside the arc, but he can spoil his own attack lanes when defenses are allowed to sag off of him.
That's what has made his early showing from long range so encouraging. If he shoots anywhere close to how he has been—9-of-21, 42.9 percent—he becomes infinitely harder for opponents to handle.
Verdict: Overreaction
Barrett came into this campaign with a career 34.3 percent connection rate on 1,300 triples. It'll take a whole lot more than three decent showings from distance—he had a 1-of-6 stinker in his third outing—for him to change his reputation as an outside shooter.
He did have one strong season from outside, as he hit 40.1 percent of his perimeter looks as a sophomore, so it's possible he can keep this up. However, there's a lot more evidence suggesting that regression will hit him at some point and could hit him hard.
