NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 9
The back-and-forth battle to be named the 2023 NFL Most Valuable Player took a few more twists in Week 8.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had his first truly bad game of the season, finishing 24-of-28 for 241 yards and two interceptions in a loss to the Denver Broncos. Mahomes' disappointing performance knocked him from the top spot in the MVP odds and reinserted Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in that position.
Tagovailoa had another 300-yard game and three touchdowns in Sunday's win over the New England Patriots.
Mahomes and Tagovailoa remain among the favorites entering Week 9, but it's anything but a two-player race.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 9
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Tua Tagovailoa +300 (bet $100 to win $300)
Jalen Hurts +400
Patrick Mahomes +400
Lamar Jackson +550
Josh Allen +1300
Joe Burrow +2000
Trevor Lawrence +2000
Christian McCaffrey +2000
Brock Purdy +2200
Jared Goff +3500
Avoid Jalen Hurts Among the Heavy Favorites
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Tagovailoa is the favorite again, but he's not far ahead of Mahomes and Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts—both of whom carry +400 odds.
Bettors considering one of the top three should look to avoid Hurts for a couple of reasons.
For one, Hurts has started a troubling trend of turning the ball over this season. He didn't throw an interception against the Washington Commanders in Week 8, but he did lose his third fumble of the season.
Hurts has now lost fumbles in back-to-back games and has six turnovers in his last three. He's already thrown more interceptions this year (eight) than he did in all of 2022 (six).
Secondly, Hurts hasn't been quite as effective as he was a year ago. His yards-per-attempt average (7.6) and passer rating (94.3) are both good but also down from 2022. Hurts is also averaging a full yard per carry less than he did last season.
Hurts could still wind up being the quarterback on the team with the league's best record—which would give him a viable case for MVP—but at these odds, Tagovailoa is the far safer play.
Miami's quarterback leads the league in passing yards, passer rating and passing touchdowns. With Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins headed to injured reserve with a torn Achilles, Tagovailoa feels like a virtual lock to finish as the league's most prolific passer.
Consider Buying Back into Joe Burrow
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Ahead of Week 5, we suggested backing off of Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow because of his calf injury—which, at the time, felt like it could be a season-long issue.
Burrow against looks healthy, though, and while Cincinnati's offense still has issues, the 26-year-old could be headed back toward the MVP conversation.
Make no mistake, Burrow has a lot of catching up to do, and the Bengals aren't even guaranteed to secure a playoff berth. Their defense has struggled against the run, and Burrow doesn't have the support of a consistent ground game.
Cincinnati's remaining schedule is also very difficult.
However, Burrow just had a statement game on the road against the San Francisco 49ers. He completed 87.5 percent of his passes for 283 yards and three touchdowns and looked every bit like the emerging star he was before the injury.
Awards voters love a good story, and if a healthy Burrow can flip the Bengals' season, it'll be one of the top stories of 2023.
Burrow represents a solid wager at +2000, but if he strings together a couple more strong games, his odds won't be as enticing.
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Don't Sleep on Tyreek Hill
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Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill set a lofty 2,000-yard goal for himself before the start of the 2023 season. With nine games still to go, the 29-year-old is more than halfway there.
Hill has caught 61 passes for 1,014 yards and eight touchdowns, and he's confident that he'll finish strong.
"A lot of people doubted me, saying I couldn't do this and do that, but it's all about believing in yourself," Hill said, per Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.
At +4000 odds, Hill represents a great value play as midseason approaches. While a non-quarterback hasn't won the award since Adrian Peterson did it in 2012, Hill could absolutely do it if the quarterback flip-flopping continues.
Hill is 950 yards away from breaking Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving record with more than half of the season remaining. He may very well make history this season, and that alone could warrant an MVP nod.
Another factor to consider is that if Tagovailoa ends the year as the league's most prolific passer, Hill is going to get a ton of the credit.
Given how things have unfolded thus far, Hill is a bargain at the current odds.
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