NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 5
We've seen a shift in the 2023 NFL MVP odds this week, which should surprise no one. Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa entered Week 4 as a heavy favorite, but he and the Dolphins got thumped 48-20 by the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.
Allen is now the favorite following his 320-yard, five-touchdown (one rushing) outing at home against the Dolphins. The question now is whether Allen can sustain his high level of play for the rest of the season.
We shouldn't just write off the fact that the 27-year-old has committed five turnovers in four games—though he's had only one over the last three.
Can fans finally trust Josh Allen to play measured, mistake-free football? How do other MVP candidates stack up entering Week 4? Let's take a look.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 5
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Josh Allen +380 (bet $100 to win $380)
Tua Tagovailoa +500
Patrick Mahomes +550
Jalen Hurts +700
Lamar Jackson +1100
Justin Herbert +1800
Christian McCaffrey +2000
Brock Purdy +2200
Wait a Week Before Jumping on Josh Allen
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Allen may have indeed abandoned the reckless style of play that has oftentimes gotten him into trouble—and cost Buffalo against the New York Jets in Week 1. In 21 games (including playoffs) dating back to the start of last season, Allen has thrown 21 interceptions and lost seven fumbles
It's hard to be considered the league's "most valuable" with that sort of turnover rate. However, Allen has done a much better job of playing within the game plan and protecting the football over the past three weeks.
Sunday's looming game against the Jacksonville Jaguars will tell us a lot about whether Allen's more careful style of play will last.
After routing the Dolphins, the Bills are ripe for a trap game. The Jaguars haven't looked great this season, and Buffalo is a little over two weeks out from a game against the rival New England Patriots.
This game will also be played in London, where the Jags played last week and have stayed between contests. Buffalo's routine will be altered significantly, while Jacksonville's will not. If the Bills start slow, Allen could begin pressing and open himself to mental miscues.
If Allen has a so-so game, his odds could become more favorable. If he has a great one, well, he's already the favorite, and they're unlikely to shorten significantly.
Buy the Retrace on Tua Tagovailoa
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Tagovailoa's odds didn't grow substantially following Miami's Week 4 loss, but +500 is more attractive than +380, which was where Tagovailoa was a week ago.
With a game against the New York Giants upcoming, now's a great time to buy into Tagovailoa's slight dip. The Dolphins will be at home and not subject to the crowd noise they face in Buffalo. They'll also be motivated to rebound after what Tagovailoa called a "humbling" loss.
"It's very humbling, and it's, you know, for some, it's much needed," Miami's QB told reporters after the game.
While it was a rough outing for the Dolphins, Tagovailoa didn't exactly have a terrible game. He finished 25-of-25 for 282 yards, one touchdown and one interception with a 92.8 passer rating. It's a very similar performance to what the 25-year-old had against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2—21-of-30 for 249 yards, one touchdown, one interception and a 92.2 rating—though, of course, Miami won that one.
Sunday's loss could be a mere blip in Tagovailoa's MVP campaign, and he'll now get a demoralized Giants defense that ranks 27th in yards per pass attempt allowed and has failed to secure a takeaway this season.
Tagovailoa could easily be the favorite again by Monday.
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It's Time to Back off Joe Burrow, Consider Christian McCaffrey
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We've all seen how great Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow can be when he's healthy. If he ever becomes a true dark horse, it could be worth taking a flier on him just in case he returns to the Pro Bowl form we saw last year.
At +5000, Burrow hasn't quite hit that level yet. Sure, it could yield a hefty payout, but there are just too many concerns to trust that Burrow can return to form this year.
Burrow's calf isn't healthy, and the issue isn't just going to resolve itself. And Burrow's performance with the injury has been downright bad. His 69.1 quarterback is the lowest in the league, and the Bengals offense has been laughably bad.
Despite ranking fifth in pass attempts, the Bengals rank 31st in yards per attempt, 29th in passing yards, 32nd in total yards and 31st in scoring. According to Zachary Pereles of CBS Sports, Burrow's 4.8 yards per attempt is the lowest mark of any NFL quarterback through four games since 1950.
Burrow is all but officially out of the MVP race.
Fans looking for a better value play should consider San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey.
Non-quarterbacks don't win MVP (Adrian Peterson last did it in 2012), but McCaffrey can make a strong case. He's already compiled 600 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. While it's not fair to prorate statistics after only a month, McCaffrey is on pace for 2,500 combined rushing and receiving yards and 20 touchdowns.
McCaffrey is likely to do more enough to push Brock Purdy (+2000) out of the MVP race and to make a serious push to end the QB streak entirely.
If any of the top quarterbacks slip up, McCaffrey could pay huge dividends at +2000.
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