Biggest Winners and Losers from Week 1 of The 2023-24 NBA Season
We're only a week into the 2023-24 NBA season, but it's never too early for takes. And you'll find plenty below in the form of the tried and true "winners and losers" exercise.
Which teams and players are off to the best start? Which offseason moves seem to be working? And who's on the opposite ends of those spectrums?
The answers to those questions and more are here.
Winner: Luka Dončić
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No one has started the season on a heater quite like Luka Dončić's. After dropping a 35-point triple-double on the Memphis Grizzlies, he's averaging 39.0 through three games.
And more importantly, his Dallas Mavericks are off to a 3-0 start without getting big production from Kyrie Irving (who missed Monday's win).
Five years and change into his NBA career, we know Dončić can produce some absurd individual stat lines. He has nothing left to prove on that front, but his team missed the playoffs last year.
And despite already having a conference finals appearance to his name, the "what have you done for me lately?" nature of NBA analysis has put the 24-year-old and Dallas under a microscope in 2023-24.
So far, both are passing that examination.
Loser: Scoot Henderson
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This is premature, especially for a rookie, but technically, everything's early right now. That doesn't mean we can't talk about anything happening in the league. Just bear in mind that things can change quickly. With one huge performance, Henderson's numbers could change dramatically.
Through three games, though, he was having one of the worst starts to a season we've seen. Seriously.
Box plus/minus "is a basketball box score-based metric that estimates a basketball player's contribution to the team when that player is on the court," and Henderson was rocking a minus-16.4 after that third contest.
Among the 2,980 campaigns in the last 30 years in which a player logged at least as many minutes as the No. 3 overall pick, that three-game start ranks 2,980th in box plus/minus.
Henderson isn't making shots. He's turning the ball over. He's trying to squeeze the ball into windows that aren't open (or in some cases, aren't even there). He looks like he has a ways to go in terms of reading his opponents on both ends of the floor.
And that's all fine. He had a hint of a bounce-back in his fourth game with 11 points on 12 shots and seven assists (though he had six fouls and four turnovers). If you were high on him before the draft, there's obviously no reason to jump ship now.
But being a contender for "worst start ever" certainly isn't ideal.
Winner: Celtics
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The Boston Celtics look like a full-fledged juggernaut.
After blowing out the Washington Wizards on Monday, they're now 3-0. Kristaps Porziņģis' long-range shooting is dragging defenses away from the paint. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White may be the best defensive backcourt in the league. Al Horford looks ready to dominate reserves. And Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown look primed to average a combined 50-60 points again.
Early on, the pieces of this puzzle appear to fit together perfectly. If Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser one of the other deeper-bench reserves pop, even better.
But contending for a title is all about the talent at the top of the roster, and it looks like Boston might have the league's best top six.
Loser: Rockets
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The Houston Rockets poured a ton of money into accelerating their rebuilding timeline this summer.
They're paying $63.4 million this season to Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks (just under 47 percent of the salary cap). Add Jock Landale, and you're up to $71.4 million.
Those veterans were supposed to support an exciting young core that includes Alperen Şengün, Jabari Smith Jr., Jalen Green and Amen Thompson. They were supposed to show those guys how to win. New coach Ime Udoka was supposed to help on that front, too.
But the Rockets don't look much different than they did last season.
Houston hasn't won a game. It's getting outscored by 14.2 points per 100 possessions (the worst net rating in the league).
And VanVleet, Brooks and Reggie Bullock (another veteran addition) are all way below replacement level in box plus/minus.
Winner: Stephen Curry
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Stephen Curry looks like a bona fide MVP candidate right now.
After dropping 42 in Monday's win over the New Orleans Pelicans, he's now averaging 33.5 points and shooting 47.1 percent from three. His Golden State Warriors are a solid 3-1.
However, the biggest reason he's a winner through this early portion of the season is how perfectly Chris Paul has fit in.
Throughout his career, the Warriors haven typically gotten dominated without Curry on the floor. During the 14 seasons prior to this one, they were plus-8.3 points per 100 possessions with him and minus-3.0 without him.
With CP3 stabilizing the non-Curry minutes, Golden State is plus-31 without him this season.
Of course, as was noted in the Henderson slide, things can change quickly. A few bad games, and we might have to look at this a bit more cautiously. But it really shouldn't come as a surprise that Paul, even at 38 years old, can dominate backups.
His ability to engineer good possessions out of nothing has worked against the best defenders in the league for almost 20 years.
Loser: Jimmy Butler
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After his team came up short in the pursuit of Damian Lillard this summer, Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat lost to Lillard and the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday.
That in itself may not have been a huge deal, but the Eastern Conference champs are now 1-3. Butler has already rested a game (so much for the player participation policy). And Miami doesn't look anywhere near as ready to contend as the Celtics and Bucks.
Of course, the Heat didn't enter the 2020 or 2023 postseasons on many people's short lists of title contenders, and they made the Finals in each of those years.
Counting out coach Erik Spoelstra and his star duo of Butler and Bam Adebayo is dangerous, but this can't be the start they wanted after winning three playoff rounds a few months ago.
Winner: Orlando Magic
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The Orlando Magic had two shots to tie the game in the waning seconds of Monday's loss to the Los Angeles Lakers and came up short on both.
The three-point defeat shouldn't erase the encouragement of their 2-1 start, though. They had an eight-point second-half lead in Los Angeles against a 2023 Western Conference finalist. And they won each of their first two games, despite the fact that they haven't really gotten huge performances from Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner yet.
On the short season, Wagner is shooting 35.6 percent from the field, while Rookie of the Year Banchero is at 37.5 percent. Both of those numbers will come up.
And if Orlando continues to defend the way it has (it's currently first in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions) while those percentages rise, the young Magic will be in the hunt for a playoff spot.
Loser: Grizzlies
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During the 2021-22 season, the Memphis Grizzlies were actually better when Ja Morant was off the floor.
But that team had Tyus Jones (who's now a Washington Wizard) and Steven Adams (who's out for the year with a knee injury).
And what's left of the Grizzlies, even with the addition of Marcus Smart, have gone 0-4 to start this campaign.
They'll put a notch in the win column soon, but surviving Morant's 25-game absence feels a lot dicier than it did a few weeks ago. And something like a 9-16 or 10-15 start could put them in too deep a hole to get out of in the West.
Winner: Nuggets
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There were no question marks about the Denver Nuggets' starting five coming into this season. It's an obvious "best lineup in the league" contender, but there was some concern about the loss of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green.
Through the Nuggets' 4-0 start, though, it looks like this year's second unit could be significantly better than the one that backed up the champs.
Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Zeke Nnaji and Reggie Jackson bring length, switchability and a level of defensive activity that last year's reserves weren't even close to. And Jamal Murray looks plenty comfortable being the first offensive option for that group.
If the Nuggets are suddenly winning the minutes without Nikola Jokić, their chance to repeat feels mighty strong.
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