What Comes Next for NBA's Top Players Who Didn't Sign Extensions?
From July 6 to October 23, 14 of the 31 eligible players signed multi-year extensions, including three max deals (Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball and Tyrese Haliburton).
Check out B/R's grades for the executed rookie scale extensions.
Thirteen of the 31 will be eligible for restricted free agency in July 2024, including Chuma Okeke, who was drafted in 2019 but first joined the Orlando Magic for the 2020-21 season. Four didn't get through their initial rookie-scale contracts (Jalen Smith, Leandro Bolmaro, RJ Hampton and Udoka Azubuike).
For those without deals, the 2023-24 campaign is huge. Atop the list is guard Tyrese Maxey, who is off to a blistering start to the 2023-24 campaign with the Philadelphia 76ers.
Others are are still hoping to crack their team's rotation, including James Wiseman in Detroit. Wiseman was taken initially No. 2 by the Golden State Warriors but is behind (a blowing up) Jalen Duren and Marvin Bagley III in Detroit with the Pistons.
What's next for the 2020 draft class?
Guidelines
1 of 14
Restricted free agency is more favorable for teams than players. That's why the goal for a player negotiating an extension is to lock in financial security to avoid playing a final season without any future seasons under contract. So much can happen in that last year, from injury to coaching/front office turnover.
The first step after the season (specifically, in late June) is for a team to give a qualifying offer based on the player's rookie scale. Not every player will get that offer, opening the door for unrestricted free agency, like Cam Reddish with the Portland Trail Blazers. The Blazers didn't give him a qualifying offer, and he signed a two-year $4.6 million minimum contract with the Los Angeles Lakers.
A player's qualifying offer can rise above his scale if he is considered a starter (41 starts or 2000 minutes in the final year, or on average over the last two seasons) like Grant Williams heading into restricted free agency with the Boston Celtics. But it's not all good, as a player's qualifying offer may drop if they don't reach that starter criteria.
Once a player is restricted, he must find a team willing to issue an offer sheet. But NBA front offices often hesitate to tie up their spending power for a week on a player they may not get—when the bulk of free agency is resolved by July 2. A player can't sign an offer sheet until July 6, and the original team has a full day to decide if they want to execute their right of first refusal.
Only four offer sheets were issued over the last four seasons. Recently, the Dallas Mavericks tried to pry away Matisse Thybulle from the Blazers with a three-year, $33.1 million offer, but Portland decided to match. In 2022, Deandre Ayton solicited a max offer from the Indiana Pacers but the Phoenix Suns didn't let him go (though he's now on the Blazers).
Without an offer, a player doesn't have as much negotiating leverage and may find their current team is paying less in July than they were willing to give in the prior October. The alternative is to take that one-year qualifying offer, like Miles Bridges with the Charlotte Hornets ($7.9 million). Bridges can explore unrestricted free agency next year, though he has outstanding legal issues that complicate his future.
Finally, while sign-and-trade transactions are rare in the NBA, restricted free agents are the most likely to find a new home that way, like Williams from Boston to the Dallas Mavericks. That's difficult to predict, but it's a potential answer if a negotiation stalemate can't be overcome.
Each player will walk their path, with the best case, a healthy breakout season—provided their coach will give them that opportunity. The following list is in descending order by how big of a role they currently play in their team's rotation.
No. 21 Pick: Tyrese Maxey
2 of 14
With James Harden in limbo, Maxey has shined in the early days of the 2023-24 season. Under normal circumstances, the Philadelphia 76ers would have given an extension, but the team is positioned to have significant spending power next summer (with Tobias Harris, Harden and others coming off the books).
As a restricted free agent, Maxey will take up $13 million of Philadelphia's cap, far less than what he's projected to earn. Conservatively, Devin Vassell got $29.3 million from the San Antonio Spurs. Still, Maxey may get closer to Desmond Bane's $34 million (from the Memphis Grizzlies).
Projected Qualifying Offer: $8.5 million (starter criteria, up from his scale amount of $6.3 million)
Projected Outcome: He's almost sure to return to the 76ers, probably on a five-year near-max deal with the 76ers. Maxey is an explosive scorer, and if Philadelphia doesn't come with a strong pitch, he may be the most likely on the list to get an offer sheet in July.
No. 5 Pick: Isaac Okoro
3 of 14
The Cleveland Cavaliers need a strong defensive wing who can space the floor with some shooting, but Okoro has yet to fill that role consistently. He's begun the 2023-24 campaign well as a starter, playing almost 32 minutes a game. Perhaps Okoro will cement his place on the team in that role moving forward.
Part of the issue is Cleveland's other commitments to players like Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen, among others. Evan Mobley is due an extension before the start of next season, and the Cavaliers may be unwilling to pay out $20 million a season to Okoro.
The challenge for most players on this list is getting a franchise with cap room to give them a sheet. Relatively few teams will go under the cap. The heavy spenders will range from the minimum to the taxpayer mid-level exception (approximately $5.2 million). The rest will have their non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE), projected at $13 million—and that may be the best a player like Okoro can get if he tries to leave as a restricted free agent.
Of course, if he's that cheap, the Cavaliers would be more likely to match.
Projected Qualifying Offer: $11.8 million (dropping to $7.7 million if he doesn't get enough starts)
Projected Outcome: Okoro could take his one-year qualifying offer unless the Cavaliers are willing to pay out closer to what Onyeka Okongwu got with the Atlanta Hawks (four years, $62 million). This is a tough one to predict, and the outcome may depend wholly on how well Okoro and the team perform in the postseason.
No. 19 Pick: Saddiq Bey
4 of 14
The Atlanta Hawks acquired Bey in trade last season from the Detroit Pistons, but he mostly came off the bench in a supporting role. This year, so far, he's a starter playing about 27.5 minutes a game.
The more significant issue for the Hawks is avoiding luxury taxes with heavy commitments to Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, De'Andre Hunter, Clint Capela and others. Is there room in the budget for Bey? There may not be, which is probably why Atlanta didn't give Bey the price he was asking for in an extension (believed to be in the $20 million-a-season range).
Projected Qualifying Offer: $8.5 million (up from $6.5 million, assuming he reaches starter criteria).
Projected Outcome: The Hawks may not have the budget to pay Bey and Jalen Johnson's development may be a part of the equation. A lot is possible for Bey, including the one-year qualifying offer, an extension similar to Okongwu (four years, $62 million) or moving on via sign-and-trade or an offer sheet at another team's NTMLE.
No. 7 Pick: Killian Hayes
5 of 14
Hayes looked promising through the preseason but has struggled a bit for the Detroit Pistons as a starter through three games. Will he keep his spot long-term in the rotation with Monte Morris sidelined with a quadriceps injury and Jaden Ivey behind him on the bench?
With Cade Cunningham hurt last season (shin), Hayes started 56 games—his most significant flaw is the lack of an outside shot (27.4 percent career from three). Still, he competes hard and may still be part of the plan in Detroit.
Projected Qualifying Offer: $9.9 million
Projected Outcome: Hayes is a tough one to project. The Pistons may try to develop Marcus Sasser as that extra guard. Or they may value Hayes' intangibles. For now, put him down on a short-term Pistons-friendly deal, perhaps $27 million over three years, with partially guaranteed salary.
No. 25: Immanuel Quickley
6 of 14
Quickley and the New York Knicks couldn't reach a deal before the deadline. Per an NBA source, the team was near $20 million a season, but Quickley was seeking $25 million. Either is a significant salary for a sixth man, and the lower figure is on par with Bogdan Bogdanović with the Atlanta Hawks (adjusting for inflation in the salary cap, Bogdanović is at $17.3 million next season).
But Quickley may need a suitor willing to give an offer sheet to get New York to invest fully at the price he seeks. The team recently paid guard Donte DiVincenzo, but he's still finding his way.
There's a world where the Knicks cut bait on Quickley and look to trade him, but the more likely outcome may be that he sticks long-term.
Projected Qualifying Offer: $8.5 million (up from $6.1 million, assuming he continues to play enough minutes to reach starter criteria).
Projected Outcome: There's a compromise to be worked out, eventually, between the Knicks and Quickley. He may be looking at Vassell money, but a four-year, $80 million contract could be in his future.
No. 4 Pick: Patrick Williams
7 of 14
Williams started 65 games last year for the Chicago Bulls and all three this season, but he's playing relatively light minutes (21.7) and is struggling to contribute.
The Bulls had high hopes he'd be a rangy, mobile forward to defend and score, but the consistency has been lacking. Williams, sources said, was expecting a lucrative extension, but the sides appear to be pretty far apart.
Projected Qualifying Offer: $13 million
Projected Outcome: Because William's qualifying offer is so high, he may be the most likely player on this list to take it. That's assuming the Bulls issue it because they may not. The team has more significant decisions ahead, primarily with DeMar DeRozan, whose contract expires after the campaign.
If he continues to play as he has, they won't—and he may struggle to near NTMLE money as an unrestricted free agent.
No. 20 Pick: Precious Achiuwa
8 of 14
As an undersized center (6'8"), Achuiwa fits nicely as a change-of-pace player behind seven-foot starter Jakob Pöltl. How much will the Toronto Raptors pay for a key reserve? At best, that's probably just above NTMLE money.
While the Raptors and Achuiwa didn't extend, the franchise doesn't seem likely to let him go. The team may change course with its roster (Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. are nearing the end of their current deals), but the safer bet is that Achiuwa returns next season.
Projected Qualifying Offer: $6.3 million
Projected Outcome: Achiuwa may end up with a contract similar to Isaiah Stewart with the Pistons (four years, $60-64 million with a team option on the final deal).
No. 8 Pick: Obi Toppin
9 of 14
It's difficult to say on Toppin, a fan favorite with the Knicks, though he never fully clicked in New York behind All-Star Julius Randle. Getting dealt to the Indiana Pacers has led to a starting spot, though Toppin is still finding his way with his new team (18.5 minutes a game thus far).
Optimistically, he will blossom in Indiana, but he has competition from other bigs like Jalen Smith, Isaiah Jackson and rookie Jarace Walker. The Pacers like to keep quality talent on team-friendly contracts. This is a make-or-break year for Toppin to earn that commitment.
Projected Qualifying Offer: $9.1 million (down to $7.7 million if he loses his starting spot before reaching 41 games)
Projected Outcome: A three-or-four-NTMLE-level deal to stay with the Pacers if he pans out (similar to teammate Aaron Nesmith's three-year, $33 million extension). If not, he could end up sticking on the one-year qualifying offer—or even get cut loose into unrestricted free agency. Pencil him in with the Pacers next season, but keep an eraser handy.
No. 13 Pick: Kira Lewis Jr.
10 of 14
Lewis has struggled to stay healthy with the New Orleans Pelicans (suffering an ACL tear in 2021). The team seems hopeful he can contribute, but time is running out.
Historically, the Pelicans don't pay the luxury tax, and the team happens to be over in the neighborhood of Lewis' $5.7 million salary. It just seems inevitable that the Pelicans look to move him, perhaps even including cash to slip under the luxury tax line ($165.3 million).
Projected Qualifying Offer: $7.9 million
Projected Outcome: The Pelicans trade him before the deadline. If he lands on a team with room in the rotation, he might get his qualifying offer. But that's a bit much to assume; instead, he's more likely to reach unrestricted free agency, looking for a new home on a minimum contract.
No. 29 Pick: Malachi Flynn
11 of 14
Flynn played a regular role as a rookie for the Raptors, playing 19.7 minutes a game, but that quickly diminished. The coaching change from Nick Nurse to Darko Rajaković hasn't led to an uptick.
Projected Qualifying Offer: $5.8 million
Projected Outcome: The Raptors decide not to give him an offer, letting him go in free agency. Flynn's next contract may be a non- or partially- guaranteed minimum deal, where he's fighting in camp to make a team's opening night roster.
Flynn is talented. Perhaps a trade before the deadline will allow him to showcase his skills.
No. 17 Pick: Aleksej Pokuševski
12 of 14
The Oklahoma City Thunder have had Pokuševski in and out of the rotation since he joined the league. When last year's No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren suffered a season-ending foot injury before his NBA debut, Pokuševski seemed to be the primary beneficiary for those open minutes.
Instead, rookies Jaylen Williams and Jalen Williams emerged, and Pokuševski has yet to retake his place in the rotation. He's turning 22 in December and has legit height (7'0") but is still building up his strength/body (up to a still-light 210 pounds, given his size).
Projected Qualifying Offer: $7.1 million
Projected Outcome: It may be time for the Thunder to cut bait, and barring a trade, Pokuševski seems fated to unrestricted free agency. He may have other suitors willing to give him a look, but the Serbian native could head back to Europe to play overseas.
No. 16 Pick (2019): Chuma Okeke
13 of 14
The Orlando Magic have drafted players at Okeke's position, but isn't yet in the rotation. Last year, he played 19.2 minutes a game in just 27 appearances. His time with Orlando appears to be nearing an end.
Projected Qualifying Offer: $7.4 million
Projected Outcome: Okeke doesn't get an offer from the Magic and enters unrestricted free agency, where he seeks to catch on elsewhere on a minimum contract.
No. 2 Pick: James Wiseman
14 of 14
Wiseman will undoubtedly get a shot in the Pistons' rotation at some point this season, but he's behind Duren and Bagley and has yet to play a minute. It's stunning that he's last on the list, given his draft position.
Last season, Wiseman played 24 games for Detroit (22 starts), averaging 18.1 points and 11.5 rebounds. If he's not part of the Pistons' future, look for the team to try and trade him to a team willing to invest in his development.
Projected Qualifying Offer: $7.7 million (missing starter criteria, down from his scale amount of $15.8 million)
Projected Outcome: Another trade and possibly a qualifying offer into restricted free agency. Wiseman may not get anything near the NTMLE, so he may be best served either taking the offer—or, if he doesn't get one, whatever he can get on a short deal. The best guess is that Wiseman gets more than a minimum contract (pencil it in at $5-10 million), just off on that potential.
Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @EricPincus.
.jpg?w=600 "Most Exciting NFL Camp Battles ⚔️")
