1 Thing Every NBA Team Can Be Thankful For
'Tis the season to be thankful for the silver linings and big-time victories, both seen and unforeseen, being delivered by each NBA team.
Some of these prayer-hand emoji developments and realities are a few of Captain Obvious' favorite things. Wherever appropriate, though, macro surprises and less-blatant good times and vibes will take center stage.
Bleacher Report NBA staff writers Grant Hughes and Dan Favale will be your guides throughout this trip down Optimism Lane. And they are #thankful for the opportunity to spread some holiday cheer—especially among the fanbases most desperate for a break in the clouds.
Atlanta Hawks: Jalen Johnson Is Breaking Out
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Dumping John Collins over the offseason always cleared the way for the Atlanta Hawks to lean on Jalen Johnson. But even those highest on his talent could not have predicted this.
Johnson has emerged as no worse than Atlanta's third-most important player. His impact runs the gamut of utility, stretching across both ends of the floor, manifesting in balanced-but-filled box scores.
The 21-year-old may not comfortably nail more than 40 percent of his threes all season. Defenses are beginning to view him as more of a threat, closing out harder on his catch. That could erase some of his wide-open triples.
But Johnson counters the extra aggression with tough-to-plan-for speed attacking those closeouts. Defenders get thrown off balance when he goes downhill, and he has the on-ball acceleration to pass almost anyone who reaches him at a standstill. Johnson is breaking out a nifty mix of floaters and fades and is a reliable finisher when he gets all the way to the basket. His capacity to push off rebounds juices what's so far been the league's fastest offense by average possession time in those situations, per Inpredictable.
"Scalability" is the operative word for Johnson at the other end. Atlanta often tethers him to bigger forwards and asks him to fight through ball screens, but he has the chops to hang in space with the Tyrese Maxeys and Shai Gilgeous-Alexanders of the world.
His help around the basket offsets the low moments he'll still turn in. No other Hawks rotation player is surrendering a lower clip at the basket. And the team's half-court defense improves by 20ish points per 100 plays with him in the game—a differential that (mostly) matches the eye test and leads the league among everyone who has logged at least 225 minutes.
—Favale
Boston Celtics: Spacey Drive-and-Kicks
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Skeptics like yours truly worried the Boston Celtics conceded too much playmaking and defensive versatility by acquiring Kristaps Porziņģis at the expense of Marcus Smart. Landing Jrue Holiday pacified some of the concern but didn't entirely dissipate it. This team still felt too reliant on jump-shooting, murky health bills and average-to-below-average ball movement.
As it turns out, this is why skeptics such as myself do not run the Celtics.
Certain warts in Boston endure. The ball can stick. Their rim pressure and free-throw-attempt rate are suboptimal. And Porziņģis will be a durability question mark no matter how many appearances he makes. But there is no denying how much more armed the offense has become.
Space is available in abundance. Plopping Porziņģis beyond the arc, both in the corners and above the break, annihilates a defense's margin for error, boxing it into a torrent of no-win situations. Boston has parlayed this back-busting floor balance into a truly terrifying drive-and-kick dynamic.
Yes, the Celtics' downhill attacks are down from last season, going from 46.8 per game then to 39.4 now. And sure, their efficiency isn't any better. Nor are they getting fouled at a higher clip. But their assist rate has spiked, a trend that's been more pronounced during a streak in which they won six of seven. The Celtics are racking up dimes on 11.3 percent of their drives in this span—a top-five-mark anchored by a top-five pass rate.
Appreciating subtle differences is paramount with a team this good. Boston's best-case scenario was always tops-in-the-league-at-both-ends. But even spacier drive-and-kicks have unlocked a variance in how the Celtics can play—and, more importantly, win.
—Favale
Brooklyn Nets: An Emergent Supporting Cast
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Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie and Cameron Johnson aren't off to the most efficient start. And the Brooklyn Nets offense feels it.
But not nearly as much as it could.
Cam Thomas was absolutely balling before getting sidelined with a left ankle sprain. What he lacks in rim pressure and bankable three-point shooting, he makes up for with a burgeoning live-dribble variance from the in-between. Among 65 players to finish at least 100 drives, only Joel Embiid is yielding more points per play.
Lonnie Walker IV might be the best minimum signing from this past summer. The early Sixth Man of the Year candidate is posting career clips from both inside and outside the arc while ranking as one of the league's most efficient pull-up shooters. His 54.7 effective field-goal percentage on those looks ranks eighth among players who have attempted at least as many field goals, trailing only those of De'Aaron Fox, Luka Dončić, Tim Hardaway Jr., Tyrese Haliburton, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Khris Middleton and Dejounte Murray.
Dorian Finney-Smith is receiving tons of credit for banging in more than 45 percent of his triples. Rightfully so. But after shooting just 29.6 percent on drives last year, he's currently at 53.8 percent this season.
—Favale
Charlotte Hornets: People Were Too Quick to Disparage the Brandon Miller Pick and Fit
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Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller are inextricably tied to one another. The debate over who's better, who's more valuable and who should have been drafted by the Charlotte Hornets at No. 2 in 2023 will rage on for years, if not their entire careers.
Public sentiment has generally assumed Buzz City gave itself the short end of the stick. It's much too early to refute that claim. It's also too soon to even say such a thing in the first place.
Miller is currently proving why we play the games. His shooting splits aren't the most efficient, but his process on and off the ball looks the part of plug-and-play with the bandwidth to do more. Cutting and floor-running is already hardwired into his functional DNA, and he's splashing down a rock-solid 48.3 percent of his pull-up twos.
The defense is even more impressive. Miller's size is translating across the best perimeter assignments, including point-of-attack guards. Featured options not named Jordan Poole are deferring more when they pull him, and he has contested about as many looks at the rim as P.J. Washington.
Charlotte's direction is hazy. But its building-block cupboard is far from empty. And it just might have added its second-most important centerpiece behind LaMelo Ball.
—Favale
Chicago Bulls: Forcing Opponent Turnovers Remains a Thing!
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Spinning any part of this Chicago Bulls season into a meaningful positive rings hollow when the aura around the organization seem downtrodden beyond measure. But hey! We're here to persevere in the name of optimism.
Also: Chicago's defense continues wrecking opposing possessions at a bonkers rate. Only the Orlando Magic force turnovers at a better clip so far.
It starts and ends on the perimeter for these Bulls. They get incredible ball and passing-lane pressure from Jevon Carter and Alex Caruso and house a smattering of peskiness in Torrey Craig, Ayo Dosunmu and even down-year Patrick Williams.
No other squad is causing turnovers more often in transition. And only the Oklahoma City Thunder generate more giveaways against pick-and-roll ball-handlers.
Chicago doesn't really parlay its forced turnovers into opportunities on the break. The Bulls are 25th in average possession time after getting rivals to cough up the ball, per Inpredictable.
That's pretty darn unforgivable. But the defensive activity does buttress an otherwise weak offense. The Bulls are still playing faster than normal in those spots, and their 1.43 points per possession after forcing a turnover ranks eighth.
—Favale
Cleveland Cavaliers: Infusion of Offensive Pace
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Slower, methodical, over-dribbly sets dominated the Cleveland Cavaliers' offensive profile last year. They're not letting that happen again this season.
Cleveland is looking to run and get into its offense noticeably faster. Ranking 21st in average possession time isn't akin to warp speed, but that's up from 29th in 2022-23, according to Inpredictable.
This added wrinkle is most evident off opponent misses. The Cavs get out in transition 31.2 percent of the time after snaring live rebounds—a top-nine rate and appreciable uptick over last year's 28.5 percent (17th).
Donovan Mitchell is helping lead the charge (when available). He will still dominate the ball against set defenses—and amid roster injuries—but is actively looking to push more often. Evan Mobley has also quickened his center-floor decision-making on most nights. And Max Strus has brought a quick-fire twitchiness that goes beyond his three-point volume and includes speed-demon ball and body movement.
—Favale
Dallas Mavericks: Sweet Silence
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The alarmists among us made plenty of noise about the dangers of the Dallas Mavericks acquiring Kyrie Irving last season.
Recent history suggested Irving would be a distraction, unavailable, injured or otherwise damaging to his new team's operation. When—not if—Irving turned things upside down, the fallout for a Mavs team that surrendered draft equity and players superstar Luka Dončić loved in exchange for Irving would be catastrophic.
In a worst-case scenario, a Dončić trade demand was a louder possibility than ever.
Listen closely now, though, and you'll note dead silence on that front.
The Mavericks are off to a hot start fueled by a faster pace, the most efficient scoring season of Dončić's career, the energy injection of rookie center Dereck Lively II and a surprisingly available and so far non-disruptive Irving. A 9-5 record has the team looking like one of the West's prime threats to the reigning champion Denver Nuggets.
Dallas isn't perfect. Its defense is among the 10 worst in the league, and no one on the roster profiles as an ideal matchup for the most dangerous opposing wing threats. But the wins are piling up, and Dončić seems content.
-Hughes
Denver Nuggets: Dissatisfaction
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It seems nobody told Nikola Jokić he was already atop the NBA mountain. Fresh off his first title, the two-time MVP could have rested on his laurels—if not coasting to start the 2023-24 season, at least throttling back a bit to manage the fatigue of last year's championship run.
Everyone would have excused a little complacency, but Jokić is playing as if he still has everything to prove. If you think about it, that defiance of expectation is pretty on-brand for a superstar whose unconventional game keeps opponents off-balance at all times.
Jokić is on pace to match or set new career highs in everything from points per game to Player Efficiency Rating and Box Plus/Minus. He's in line to lead the league in rebound rate for the first time and, despite the highest usage rate of his career, is turning the ball over less often than at any point since his rookie season.
Already established as the best player in the world, Jokić is clearly making an effort to get even better. You can't put a price on that particular type of superstar dissatisfaction.
-Hughes
Detroit Pistons: Ausar Thompson is Already a Problem...for Other Teams
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Since I already gave some shine to the demonstrative force that remains Jalen Duren, let's throw our hands up in celebration of Ausar Thompson.
Sticklers harp on his jumper, which needs work. And the Detroit Pistons will need to plan lineups and roster construction accordingly if it never comes along. But he is not useless on offense. He will beeline toward the basket off screens and away from the action when given enough space and is already an impact passer. He has a top-eight assist rate on drives among players who have finished as many.
There's little to nitpick on the defensive end. Thompson can get foul-happy and struggle against some more explosive assignments, but his body of work as a rookie bends the brain. Consider how opponents have fared when looking at his top-seven matchups:
- Chicago has scored 0.98 points per possession when he guards DeMar DeRozan
- Milwaukee has scored 1.04 points per possession when he guards Damian Lillard
- Portland has scored 1.02 points per possession when he guards Shaedon Sharpe
- Atlanta has scored scored 0.80 points per possession when he guards Dejounte Murray
- Oklahoma City has scored 0.97 points per possession when he guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Golden State has scored 0.98 points per possession when he guards Klay Thompson
- Philadelphia has scored 0.79 points per possession when he guards Tyrese Maxey
Both the breadth of these assignments and results are absurd. Thompson is everywhere in the half-court—and smart about it.
Grabbing over 10 boards and placing in the top five of "stocks" at his size is super cool. But he's also limiting opponents to 46.4 percent shooting at the rim—a top-three mark among nearly 80 players who have contested 40 or more looks near the basket.
Detroit is headed nowhere fast this season. But Thompson arms them with as much long-term intrigue as anyone else on the roster.
—Favale
Golden State Warriors: Passable Bench Play
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The Golden State Warriors' top five players in net-rating differential all come off the bench, which is a somewhat wordy way to say the Dubs have finally figured out how not to get smothered whenever Stephen Curry rests.
For years, Curry's absence from the floor coincided with ballooning deficits as reserves gave back the starting unit's gains.
Though the numbers are already normalizing during a difficult stretch, Golden State's backups have still contributed much more to the team's success than any set of reserves in recent memory. Chris Paul's on-off impact remains a team-best plus-14.5 points per 100 possessions, and the energetic defense produced by units featuring Gary Payton II, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody is undeniable.
The Warriors will go as far as their title-tested first unit takes them, which is why it's so concerning that Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson are playing the worst basketball of their careers.
Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney have gone from being the best five-man unit in 2022-23 to one that gets outscored by 12.7 points per 100 possessions this year. Thanks to a rebuilt bench made up of offseason acquisitions and developing youngsters, Golden State is still treading water in circumstances that would have sunk it last season.
-Hughes
Houston Rockets: They Don't Have James Harden
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If it's true that new head coach Ime Udoka's opinion on James Harden ended the team's pursuit of the former MVP, that man needs a raise. And if it was more of a collective decision to turn away from the oft-disgruntled star, well...big holiday bonuses all around.
Houston would be in a far worse position if it had consummated last year's conspicuous courtship of Harden. Even if the Rockets' record were better than their current 6-6 mark, and even if Harden had entered camp in shape (stop laughing) and committed to winning (seriously, quit it), what's happening right now would still be preferable to that hypothetical alternative.
Sans Harden, Houston is playing some of the most surprisingly solid basketball in the league. Better still, the main driver of that success is homegrown rising star Alperen Sengün, who never would have had the chance to expand his game with the ball-dominant Harden on the roster.
Just 21, Sengün is Houston's offensive hub. On pace to become the youngest player to average at least 19.0 points, 8.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists with a true shooting percentage north of 60.0 percent, the big man has also improved his defensive performance to the point that his team is actually better on that end when he's in the game.
The on-ball skill, post game and passing were apparent early in Sengün's career, but the defensive growth was far from a given. That he's worked hard enough to become a complete player so quickly suggests Sengün still has the capacity to become even greater.
Houston dodged a franchise-altering bullet by walking away from Harden.
-Hughes
Indiana Pacers: Half-Court Stability
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Marveling over the speed at which the Indiana Pacers get up the floor is standard fare—and by no means misses the mark. But their offense is now fully weaponized against set defenses, as well.
"Set," of course, is a relative term. The Pacers are a blur of pace and smarts even in the half-court. No team operates faster following an opponent make, per Inpredictable.
Still, the Indiana of last year was 24th in half-court efficiency. The team has so far skyrocketed all the way up to—*checks notes*—first. And that mark somehow includes its Sunday night shellacking at the hands of the Orlando Magic.
Tyrese "Assist-to-Turnover Deity" Haliburton remains the driver of everything. But the arrival of Bruce Brown has layered optionality upon steadiness. The Pacers' half-court efficiency improves by 9.0 points per 100 plays with him in the game, an on-off bump that speaks to his value outside the starting five just as much as inside it.
In particular, the trio of Brown, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith has brought a lethal balance of creativity and versatility to the no-Haliburton minutes. If the Pacers as a team can ever figure out how to get stops—or at least cease excessive fouling—the Eastern Conference will have a materializing giant on its hands.
—Favale
LA Clippers: Russell Westbrook's Growth
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Alongside his work ethic and elite athleticism, Russell's Westbrook's refusal to compromise made him great. For over a dozen years, Russ played a defiant, relentless, hard-charging style that overwhelmed opponents—one that served him well until physical decline and changing team circumstances called for adjustments.
His reluctance to accept a new role led to a poor fit with the Los Angeles Lakers, and it almost certainly contributed to the former no-questions-asked max-salary superstar settling for a $3.8 million salary this season.
The rude awakening clearly changed Westbrook for the better. He accepted a bench role with the Lakers last year, and he's done it again to accommodate Harden with the Clippers.
LA produces a minus-18.5 net rating with all four of Harden, Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on the floor and a plus-21.5 when the other three stars play without Westbrook. That's a massive difference that probably won't last as the sample of playing time grows, but some portion of it owes to Westbrook's non-threatening presence off the ball. Though he could have protested that the out-of-shape and late-arriving Harden should be the one to hit the pine, Westbrook instead volunteered to reduce his own role.
That's a level of growth worth praising.
-Hughes
Los Angeles Lakers: Historic Agelessness
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LeBron James is the only player to average at least 25.0 points and 10.0 assists after turning 35 and the only 36-year-old to average at least 25.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists. He also owns the highest scoring averages for a player in his age-37 and age-38 seasons.
In one sense, what James is doing in his age-39 campaign should be the expectation. He's lifted the bar so often that it can't really come as a surprise when he raises it again.
At the same time, tossing off James' late-career dominance as par for the course feels foolish. This'll turn off the roughly 50 percent of NBA fans suffering from Chronic LeBron Fatigue Syndrome, but here it is anyway: We're not talking about James enough!
The NBA's all-time leading scorer has established himself as the best "old" player the game has ever seen, and he's only extending his dominance of that category this season. Karl Malone is the only other 39-year-old to top 20.0 points per game, but James is on pace to blow past that with his current figure of 25.7 points per game.
Multiple fourth-quarter takeovers and a team-best plus-26.8 on-off split add to the legend, and if James finishes the season at his current level of efficiency, he'll set a new career high in true shooting percentage.
We can't take for granted what he's done over the last half-decade of his career, and you can bet the Los Angeles Lakers won't either.
-Hughes
Memphis Grizzlies: Time
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Ja Morant's suspension was always going to make life tougher on the Memphis Grizzlies, but nobody could have foreseen the litany of other hardships that befell the league's most disappointing team.
Put it this way: Bismack Biyombo, John Konchar, Jacob Gilyard, David Roddy and Xavier Tillman Sr. have all appeared in Memphis' starting lineup—stopgaps and fall-back plans amid injuries to Steven Adams, Marcus Smart and just about everyone other than Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr.
Losers in 10 of their first 13 games, the Grizzlies look nothing like the team that won over 50 games in each of the past two seasons. In fact, a start this bad might mean the 50-win plateau is already out of reach.
Memphis' only ally is time. The six-month NBA season is only one month old, and there's a precedent for good finishes after beginnings this bad. Just last year, the Los Angeles Lakers started 3-10 and wound up in the Western Conference Finals. Granted, the Lakers remade their roster at the deadline and had to scrap their way to the the postseason's penultimate round by way of the play-in tournament. But it's still true that the season is far from over in November.
That's particularly applicable to the Grizzlies, whose best player has yet to suit up. Reinforcements are inbound. If Memphis can avoid despair and play its next few weeks at roughly a break-even clip (a fairly large ask in light of how the last few have gone), all won't be lost. Time is on the Grizzlies' side.
-Hughes
Miami Heat: Bam Adebayo Continuing to Grow
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Fans and members of the Miami Heat have plenty to be thankful for right now. Their team is rolling after a crummy start.
Jimmy Butler has flipped the switch—and is taking and making more threes. Jaime Jaquez Jr. is filling gaps and starting to hit triples of his own. Caleb Martin is still finding his way, but he's at least back. Duncan Robinson's inside-the-arc dynamism has carried over from the playoffs. Haywood Highsmith is defending up and down the positional spectrum.
Bam Adebayo's continued offensive evolution stands out above all the rest. He is averaging a career high in points while playing a tick less per game, an upswing owed largely to taking more free throws per 36 minutes.
The bones of Adebayo's offensive skeleton aren't dramatically different from last year. His rim frequency has dropped by nearly 10 percent for the second straight season, but that dip is in service of increased agency and patience as both playmaker and scorer. His isolations are up year-over-year yet again, and he's knocking down those looks at an unreal clip. More of his buckets are going unassisted than ever.
When Adebayo gets paint touches, he's making the most of them. He's upped his efficiency on fadeaway jumpers, and just two other players have made as many field goals and free throws on those possessions while matching Bam's efficiency: Anthony Davis and Chet Holmgren.
Miami is losing the minutes Adebayo tallies without Butler, but that does little to detract from the former's offensive mystique. He's being asked to spearhead lineups nearly devoid of secondary creation in those situations. This version of Bam is more self-sufficient and central than before, and the Heat should be better off for it.
—Favale
Milwaukee Bucks: Adrian Griffin Listening to His Players
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Through the first four games of the Milwaukee Bucks' season, head coach Adrian Griffin didn't have Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Brook Lopez working in drop coverage nearly as often. The results were, um, bleak.
Milwaukee ranked first in opponent rim frequency (22.2 percent) but was dead last in shooting accuracy surrendered at the hoop (80.9 percent)—a colossally crappy mark that heavily contributed to a No. 24 half-court defense.
Then, during a Nov. 3 victory over the New York Knicks, Griffin told ESPN that the players asked to move Lopez back into drop as a base coverage. He obliged.
The returns since this stated switch speak for themselves. And they're loud as hell.
The Bucks are forfeiting more looks at the rim (30.6 percent of opponent field-goal attempts) but are now fourth in shooting accuracy allowed (60.7 percent). Their half-court defense has recovered to a good-not-great-but-much-better 14th.
There's no overstating the significance of this reversal. Frosty opponent three-point shooting has helped, and Milwaukee's guards continue to get left behind in transition, creating a volume dilemma that could prove problematic. But an average-or-better defense is all the Bucks need when their offense is now certified Thermonuclear AF™.
—Favale
Minnesota Timberwolves: Vindication
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The Minnesota Timberwolves didn't swing last offseason's blockbuster Rudy Gobert deal with the intention of waiting a year to see results.
Roundly criticized after surrendering a half-decade's worth of draft equity for a big man who overlapped with Karl-Anthony Towns, whom it had already inked to a max extension, Minnesota never really got a chance to see how its revamped roster could perform in 2022-23. Towns suffered a calf strain early in the year, D'Angelo Russell (later replaced by Mike Conley) struggled to find chemistry with Gobert, and Anthony Edwards never seemed quite sure how to adjust.
Now, the Wolves sit atop the West on the strength of a fearsome first unit that still has significant upside.
The Gobert-led defense was a little lucky to see opponents start out so cold from long range, but those numbers have normalized a bit, and Minnesota is still toting a top-three defensive rating. Edwards has taken the next step toward perennial All-NBA status, Towns is heating up after a chilly first couple of weeks and Conley keeps everything organized.
This team is deep, with Naz Reid, Kyle Anderson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker deserving consideration as the best 6-8 rotation pieces in the league. Jaden McDaniels remains among the best defenders at his position, and the chemistry is clearly improving now that the core has had a few reps together.
It took longer than they hoped, but the Wolves are finally getting the payoff for their bold gamble. Better late than never.
-Hughes
New Orleans Pelicans: Jordan Hawkins' Fit
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Jordan Hawkins is nowhere near a perfect prospect. The rookie guard is a rail-thin 6'5" and struggles to make an impact defensively. Limited athleticism prevents him from doing much inside the arc, and it's unclear if he'll ever be more than a shooting specialist.
But for this particular New Orleans Pelicans team, which needs quick-trigger snipers to capitalize on the defense-shrinking presence of Zion Williamson, Hawkins was the correct pick.
"He's fearless," Pelicans coach Willie Green told William Guillory of The Athletic. "When he's open, he's going to shoot it. He's aggressive, and the beauty of it is (his teammates) are looking for him. It's beautiful to watch."
Second among 2023 draftees in total points, Hawkins has actually become a starter for the injury-hit Pels. He's on pace to hoist 9.1 three-point attempts per 36 minutes, which would put him right in line with noted sharpshooter Buddy Hield's career rate. Though Hawkins is only hitting 36.0 percent of his triple tries so far, the volume is what matters. Defenders can't leave him alone, and a quick release means Hawkins needs to be guarded even more closely than most perimeter threats.
Drafting for fit is always a risky proposition, but New Orleans found the right guy at No. 14.
-Hughes
New York Knicks: Mitchell Robinson's Domination
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I'm not sure who needs to hear this, but Mitchell Robinson has been the New York Knicks' best player. Jalen Brunson is quickly catching up and far more important, and the RJ Barrett decision-making turn is legitimate. Wire-to-wire, though, Robinson has been more consistent and dominant than anyone.
Not enough credit is given for the load he shoulders on the defensive end. Yes, his on-off splits are all over the place. Opponents get to and shoot better at the rim with him in the game. But that says more about the personnel alongside which he plays as well as New York's relative unwillingness to switch.
Offenses go out of their way to avoid Robinson. They will station his assignment in the corner or on the wing to open the paint, and attacking the Brunson-Julius Randle combo in pick-and-rolls offers a comfy aversion point. Robinson is still doing things away from the ball and on the perimeter that can be reasonably described as Anthony Davis-esque coverage navigation.
He has arguably been more important on the offensive end. That's a backward thing to entertain for someone so low-usage. It's also true. Robinson is currently notching the best offensive-rebounding season on record. And New York needs the history he's making.
According to PBP Stats, he's boarding 24.7 percent of the Knicks' missed twos, including 29.2 percent on missed rim attempts and 25.0 percent of missed twos between four and 14 feet. That's a huge deal considering they're 30th in rim efficiency and 25th in short mid-range efficiency and 23rd in first-chance half-court offense. He's also snaring 11.06 percent of New York's missed threes.
Carving out his own offense isn't Robinson' specialty in these instances. But the Knicks make more out of the opportunities he creates. They are averaging 1.12 points per second-chance possession with him on the floor versus 0.89 points without him.
—Favale
Oklahoma City Thunder: Our Collective Gullibility
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Oklahoma City Thunder general manager Sam Presti pulled one over on all of us, downplaying the possibility of his team making a leap in 2023-24 and noting quite precisely that OKC hit the "7 percent high-end bandwidth" of possibilities with last year's 16-win improvement.
Next time you want to thoroughly confuse someone, feel free to tell them you hit the 7 percent high-end bandwidth of your forecast. It'll make you sound smart, and if what's happened with OKC is any indication, it'll offer the cover you need to exceed expectations.
Presti threw us off the scent in October, but his team's run through much of November reeks of sustainable success.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is indisputably a top-10 player in the NBA, which might be underselling him in light of his legitimate chance to lead the league in both scoring and steals. He was the best player on the floor in OKC's seven-point road win over the Golden State Warriors on Nov. 18, racking up 40 points on 18-of-29 shooting and out-dueling Stephen Curry down the stretch.
Jalen Williams is one of the most complete young wings in the league, Chet Holmgren is a far more developed offensive product than anyone could have suspected (a sandbagging Presti excluded), and rookie Cason Wallace is hitting over half of his threes.
The Thunder were the first West team to hit the 10-win mark and should be regarded as a threat to have home-court advantage in a first-round playoff series.
No word yet on where that result would rank as a percentage of high-end bandwidth.
-Hughes
Orlando Magic: The Defense Looks for Real
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Finding reasons to not believe in the Orlando Magic's top-ranked defense is getting harder by the game.
Which probably just means this is their new normal. Or at least close to it.
Opponents are downing only 33.5 percent of their wide-open threes thus far. That number will climb. The noise mostly ends here.
Nearly everything else Orlando is doing jibes with its personnel. No one does a better job limiting opportunities inside four feet, which makes sense when you consider the fleet of frenetic bodies they have on the perimeter.
Rookie Anthony Black navigates the floor like an All-Defensive veteran. Jalen Suggs is a unique meld of strength and eclipsing hands. Jonathan Isaac will be on an eternal minutes limit, but his dominant interchangeability shines in the half-court.
Markelle Fultz has missed a bunch of time with a left knee injury, but his size and length and smarts make him tough to move around at the point of attack. Wendell Carter Jr. was holding opponents to sub-40-percent shooting at the rim before undergoing left hand surgery. Franz Wagner is more of a nuisance on the wings than advertised.
Elite defensive returns aren't all sunshine and daisies. The Magic's half-court offense has predictably suffered relative to the makeup of their roster. But this team is built to caps-lock DEFEND—and to cover up for anyone on it who cannot. Right now, the roster construction is doing its job, scrapping and clawing as intended, with a one-off-the-dribble-shot-maker-away feel to its immediate ceiling.
—Favale
Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey Going Kaboom
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Is "Tyrese Maxey going kaboom" just another way of saying "Thank you for demanding a trade, James Harden?" I'll let you decide.
Maxey's numbers don't just leap off the page. They engulf the entire book. He's averaging 27 points and seven assists while downing over 42 percent of his triples. Luka Dončić, Stephen Curry, Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum are the only players who have made more pull-up treys, and Maxey has gone an out-of-this-world 15-of-27 on step-back threes.
Mid-range efficiency remains an area for improvement, but harping on it is tough when he's polished his change of cadence going downhill. This year's 50 percent hit rate on floaters comes amid far more defensive attention and tighter spaces and is, above all, a testament to his growing unpredictability.
The playmaking fits a similar mold. Maxey has nearly doubled his assists per 36 minutes, and his potential dimes per 36 minutes have gone from 6.9 in 2022-23 to 10.8 now. Defenses are harder-pressed to coax him into picking up his dribble, and while his chemistry with Joel Embiid is telepathic, Maxey's table-setting doesn't require a superstar running mate.
To wit: The Philadelphia 76ers are winning the minutes he logs without Embiid by 10 points per 100 possessions, all while notching an offensive rating that would rank in the 85th percentile and, most critically, a half-court rating that's decidedly above average.
This is not your run-of-the-mill star arrival. It's more like an All-NBA turn.
—Favale
Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker Is a Point Guard
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No, Devin Booker probably won't turn into a conventional floor general who spams pick-and-rolls and micromanages the game like former teammate and lab-created point guard Chris Paul. Impressive as he's been in his brief time as the Phoenix Suns' main initiator, Booker may never look like he was born to play the position.
The Suns should be just fine with that, as Booker has managed to maintain his natural scoring instincts while dramatically expanding his playmaking skills.
Already known for posting assist percentages that ranked above the 90th percentile among wings, Booker is breaking new ground this season. His rate of 5.7 assists per 36 minutes in 2022-23 (a great number!) is all the way up to 9.8.
Perhaps he won't continue to average just under 10.0 assists per game if Grayson Allen and Kevin Durant quit canning nearly half of their three-point attempts, but Booker's comfort and effectiveness as Phoenix's main ball-handler will persist. We've seen enough good reads in the early going to trust the three-time All-Star has the vision and court sense to facilitate at a high level all year.
Depth was a concern when the Suns put together their star-laden, top-heavy roster. But so was the lack of a conventional point guard. So far, that second part looks like a non-issue.
-Hughes
Portland Trail Blazers: A Generous Grace Period
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There are a couple of different ways for NBA teams to get a pass from fans and evaluators. The first is to win a title, which shuts up doubters and turns the next season or two into something of a victory lap—even if a repeat is usually the goal.
Championships are insulation against criticism, even if citing them can seem a little petty. Just ask Klay Thompson.
The Portland Trail Blazers, 29th in net rating and off to an injury-plagued 3-11 start, have the other kind of pass. Mere months into their rebuild and laden with youth, their grace period is about a total lack of expectations.
Losing isn't necessarily the goal in Portland, but it's hardly a surprise—particularly with so many lead ball-handlers missing time. Anfernee Simons has played one game, while Scoot Henderson has seen action in only five. Trickle-down alert: Shaedon Sharpe, overburdened with playmaking duties, is struggling to score efficiently.
You can see the outlines of a successful team in Portland. Henderson, Simons and Sharpe profile as an exciting three-guard rotation, Deandre Ayton is rebounding at elite rates and rookie second-rounder Toumani Camara might be the defense-first glue guy who ties everything together...eventually.
The Blazers are almost certainly going to finish as one of the two worst teams in the West, and nobody's going to get bent out of shape about it. Grace periods don't last forever, though. In a year or two, Portland's young pieces will have to start delivering.
-Hughes
Sacramento Kings: De'Aaron Fox's Superhuman Healing
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It's an unscientific standard, but a full view of the bottom of a player's shoe generally indicates the ankle sprain he just suffered was a bad one. When De'Aaron Fox's left foot turned over far enough to showcase the entire underside of his Curry 11s, and when he stayed down beneath the basket for several minutes afterward, you could see the Sacramento Kings' season flashing before their eyes.
Fox missed just five games and returned looking every bit the All-NBA superstar he was prior to injury.
Sacramento is 2-3 without Fox and 6-2 when he's in the lineup. His presence on the floor coincides with a team-high plus-10.3 boost to the Kings' offensive rating, a jolt that comes with a notable dip in turnover rate.
The Kings entered this year with lofty expectations but a roster mostly unchanged from 2022-23. It always felt strange to pair such a growth mindset with a static lineup, but maybe we all forgot to account for Sacramento's best player improving—which Fox has.
As long as he's in the lineup, the Kings have a chance to beat anybody.
-Hughes
San Antonio Spurs: The Option to Experiment
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Though everyone hopes and expects Victor Wembanyama to work wonders immediately, the San Antonio Spurs won't really know what they have in the No. 1 overall pick for several years. As it stands now, they don't have clarity on what position Wemby should play, the types of support pieces that'll position him to succeed and the best ways to maximize his unique skills on both ends.
All that uncertainty extends past Wembanyama, and with it comes the opportunity to tinker. San Antonio is trying all kinds of strange tactics during this exploratory phase, not the least of which being Jeremy Sochan playing point guard.
The results have been ugly so far.
Per Andrew Lopez of ESPN: "The Spurs are averaging 0.966 points per possession when Sochan brings the ball up the floor. That is last among the 50 players who have brought the ball up 200 times or more this season."
Beyond appalling inefficiency, there's a broader argument to be made that the Sochan-at-point gambit should go away immediately. It cramps spacing for Wemby and everyone else, and it's simply hard to envision a future in which a 6'9" forward with a slow release and no prior experience at the position winds up as the lead ball-handler when the team is ready to compete for real.
At the same time, you have to appreciate the Spurs' willingness to get creative. If you have a generational prospect, you might as well see if you can build a team around him that's as unusual as he is.
-Hughes
Toronto Raptors: The Scottie Barnes Mega Leap
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I have written about the Scottie Barnes mega leap in detail already. Though he has plenty of nits to pick—hesitance on drawing contact, some janky fadeaways—the book on his scoring and playmaking transformation needn't be rewritten.
Barnes is entrenching himself as a multilevel threat. Defenses don't treat him like a viable three-point weapon—and he's making them pay. His in-between decision-making isn't perfect, but he's more comfortable splitting traffic, angling his body to maintain separation after leaving his feet and consistently hurting opponents who drop too far when he's coming around ball screens. His 60 percent conversion rate on pull-up twos is at once unsustainable and a harbinger of how much broader his offensive package has become.
The same goes for his passing, which is measurably more dynamic. His live-dribble vision seems more comprehensive—especially in the open floor—and he's calmer and more collected when facing doubles and threading the needle over the length.
To top it all off, Barnes' growth spills over to the defensive end. The Toronto Raptors, for the most part, have him guarding like-sized players. And it looks good on him. He has the counting stats many adore (he's seventh in stocks); closes out with his speed and control dials both turned to 11; is recovering well when he gets behind the play; and has been a regular help presence around the basket.
Direction remains a murky concept around Toronto—but not because the Raptors don't have access to it. Barnes is good enough to give them one. Whether Toronto is fully optimizing what's around him is a separate matter.
—Favale
Utah Jazz: The Offense Is Encouraging
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Mike Conley's departure at last year's trade deadline was deeply destabilizing for the Utah Jazz's offense, and the team's options at point guard to begin this year didn't inspire hope for steadier play.
Thanks in part to rookie Keyonte George, the Jazz are defying that expectation.
We're thin-slicing the data, but in George's first five games as the starter, Utah put up 115.5 points per 100 possessions on offense when he was in the game. That's the equivalent of a top-10 offense over a full season. The full-season on-off numbers are much worse, but at least Utah got a sample of George's capability. His inexperience suggests he'll only improve as he gets more reps.
Utah is also the best offensive rebounding team in the league, and new addition John Collins seems to have rediscovered his missing three-point stroke. At 44.2 percent from deep through his first 14 games, Collins is providing vital stretch to an offense that needs it while giving George a reliable kick-out option beyond Lauri Markkanen.
Walker Kessler was one of the most defensively impactful rookies in years last season. If George is capable of piloting an above-average offense in his first campaign, Utah will have the outlines of a promising two-way squad.
-Hughes
Washington Wizards: The Bilal Coulibaly Experience
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So much for Bilal Coulibaly being a project.
Although the Washington Wizards have not saddled the 19-year-old with complicated offensive usage, he's exceeded expectations in his role. Defenses don't guard him on threes, and he's capitalizing by swishing 46.2 percent of his triples. That efficiency will slip, potentially plummet. But a willingness to uncork treys at all is a win right now.
Coulibaly has also shown he can contribute elsewhere on offense, mitigating whatever regression might hit his jumper. He can be chaotic on drives but is a willing kicker and doesn't let the ball stick. His half-court, off-ball floor navigation keeps defenses on tilt, and he's a lightning rod in transition. His 1.33 points per possession on the break rate is in the 86th percentile.
Washington is baptizing Coulibaly's defensive chops by fire. He has rumbled with everyone from guards Jalen Brunson and Damian Lillard to wings such as Jaylen Brown and Brandon Miller to combo-forward-big types along the lines of Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam.
The results aren't always pretty, and Coulibaly can be tossed around on screens. He doesn't look overmatched, either. He slides his feet well; closes out hard and at intelligible angles; rebounds well for someone of his size and build; and uses his length to disrupt shots and handles at every level both on- and off-ball.
With the caveat that it's still early, here's every other rookie shorter than 6'7" to post a steal rate of at least 1.5 and block rate of 2.0 or better while matching Coulibaly's defensive rebounding percentage and playing 25-plus minutes per game: Charles Barkley and Lonzo Ball.
—Favale
Unless otherwise noted, stats come courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and are accurate entering games played on Wednesday, Nov. 22. Salary information via Spotrac. Subscribe to Dan and Grant's NBA podcast, Hardwood Knocks.
