Which 22-and-Under NBA Prospects Are Shining Brightest?
The kids of the NBA are all right.
Heck, they're better than all right. As a collective, they're great, intriguing, polarizing, beacons of hope, the whole shebang.
They are also plentiful. The league has so many awesome youngsters right now that distilling the field down to five standouts is a torturous game of mental gymnastics, self-doubt and existential loathing.
But this was the mission I was asked to carry out. I've chosen, reluctantly, to accept it. And to properly frame it, I've cobbled together a set of criteria that both narrows the field and, I believe, accurately reflects the spirit of the term "prospect." The criteria for inclusion is as follows:
- Players must be no older than 22.
- Players cannot be on or have agreed to their second contract.
- This is not a ranking of careers or the rest of this season. These kiddies have shined the brightest, to me, so far relative to expectations and their track record.
- Players must have logged at least 50 total minutes this season to make the cut. That leaves us with a field of 300ish under the age of 23 from which to choose.
- Bigger, more proven names are eligible, but the bar for inclusion is higher, since they must be outstripping already-glitzy or -inflated reputations.
That about covers it. Let's spotlight some #youths.
Notable Exclusions
1 of 6
Notable Age-22-and-Under Players Who Already Agreed To Their Second Contracts
- LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets (signed five-year max extension)
- Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (signed five-year max extension)
Players Who Would Garner More Consideration If We Were Writing About Career Ceilings Rather Than Early Season Standouts Relative to Expectations and Resumes
- Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
- Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
- Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic
- Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
These Players Are Older Than Age 22 So Please Don't Be #ThatPerson Who Gets Mad and/or Inexplicably Enraged They Don't Appear Here
- Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers (age 23)
- Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers (age 23)
- Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics (age 25, not age 19)
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
2 of 6
Turning over a huge portion of the offense to Scottie Barnes hasn't always gone smoothly for the Toronto Raptors. But it has allowed him to showcase a more comprehensive package reflected in the 21.5 points and 6.0 assists he's averaging per game.
Barnes' passing has improved. He's more patient when surveying the floor from standstills and more comfortable and decisive making live-dribble swings in traffic.
The scoring arsenal is both deep and efficient. He could stand to embrace more contact and abandon some fadeaways below the free-throw line but is more at home using his body to create separation when going downhill and with his back to the basket.
His growth from the perimeter is a potential franchise-changer. His three-point clip still sits above 38 percent and features an efficient mix of spot-ups and pull-ups that's heavy on above-the-break attempts. He's also nailing 68.4 percent(!) of his pull-up twos. Defenses will eventually play him more tightly on these looks, but he's busted out the 0-to-full-throttle speed necessary to exploit crowded contests.
Speaking of defense, Barnes looks the part of a difference-maker on the rise. He isn't guarding on the perimeter straight up as often, which suits him. But he's turning close-out blocks into his catnip. He has swatted a league-leading five treys, according to PBP Stats.
Nationally, the Scottie Barnes megaleap has many wondering whether the Raptors must trade Pascal Siakam. Really, the strides being made by the 22-year-old should have us pondering just how many All-NBA teams he'll make for his career, across multiple iterations of a Toronto franchise built around him.
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
3 of 6
So many people gave the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year award to some spindly giant in San Antonio before the season ever tipped off.
As it turns out, Chet Holmgren has other ideas.
The 21-year-old has fit like a glove on the Oklahoma City Thunder, averaging 16.8 points and 2.5 blocks per game on—[brace yourself]—71.9 true shooting. His floor spacing has opened up new frontiers for an offense that suddenly ranks seventh in points scored per possession. He won't knock down 55-plus percent of his triples forever (54.2 percent above the break!), but defenses are already inching closer toward him while he's away from the ball.
Holmgren routinely uses this attention to transition into a hot-knife-through-butter floor game. Defenders seem genuinely flummoxed when he puts the ball on the deck and blows by them, sometimes adding some derring-do to his handle for good measure. His 0.85 points per drive rank ninth among the 80 players who have finished at least as many as him.
Though he can get overpowered by larger frontlines, Holmgren is battling—and stronger than he looks. He rumbles with thicker bodies on the glass, and he's done a nice job leveraging his hips to create separation when screening burlier bigs.
Then there's his shot-blocking radius, which extends into interstellar space. He is erasing field-goal attempts from every imaginable angle and spot on the floor. They're not just clippable highlights, either. Holmgren is leaving a meaningful defensive dent, infusing the kind of fear in opponents that has them belting out mid-rangers rather than chancing three-point attempts he can reach or challenging him at the basket.
Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets
4 of 6
The Alperen Şengün breakout League Pass junkies have been predicting is here at last. And it's both accelerating the Houston Rockets' present and future.
More of the offense is being run through the 21-year-old this season, and it looks great on both player and team. Şengün continues to set up teammates from all over the court. He can grab and go, facilitate out of the post and from the elbows, survey or attack from the middle of the floor, fling passes out of the short roll, toss entry lobs from the wing—the list goes on and on, potentially without end.
Şengün's development as a scorer is an equally big deal. He's shooting 14-of-20 on drives and scoring 0.83 points per post touch (up from 0.53 last year) and 0.74 points per elbow touch (up from 0.52). Nikola Jokić is the only other player who has made as many shots and dished as many assists from the elbows.
Bringing up the free-throw (60.9 percent) and three-point clips (33.3) would go a long way. But Şengün is taking more triples than last year, which helps open the floor by itself. His 18.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 6.6 assists on 62.7 true shooting are numbers that will have him hovering around, if not outright party crashing, the All-Star conversation should they hold.
Most important of all, the Rockets are outscoring opponents by 15.8 points per 100 possessions with him the court. The team's net rating without him? Minus-8.1. It's still early, but that differential matches the eye test: Şengün has been one of the NBA's most impactful players, bar none, in the early going.
Cam Thomas, Brooklyn Nets
5 of 6
Cam Thomas will miss at least two weeks with a left ankle sprain, which is both a bummer (he's been too fun!) and relief (it could have been worse). This hopefully short absence does little to detract from the intrigue he's fomenting so far.
Whether Thomas will continue to average around 27 points on career-best true shooting is debatable—not just because early-season noise remains a thing, but because he's entering uncharted territory. His minutes have nearly doubled, and his overall volume has skyrocketed. Scoring at this clip for the entire year is a tall order when you've never played 1,200 minutes in a single campaign.
And yet, the 22-year-old's rise isn't merely about the raw numbers. It's also about the methods by which they're coming. As we previously discussed, Thomas is displaying poise and patience with his live dribble, surveying and reacting to defenses in a way that suggests total control.
Even an uncomfortably heavy mid-range workload—and suboptimal three-point shooting—doesn't warrant concern for serious regression. Thomas is exploring different levels of the middle, varying the depths and speeds at which he attacks on the catch and coming around ball screens. Among the 15 players who have finished 100 drives, he leads the field in points per play.
It isn't immediately clear what the next frontier will be for Thomas. Live-dribble passing is a biggie. Ditto for an improved clip from deep. His defensive energy may always ebb and flow. But the degree to which he's shined without monopolizing the Brooklyn Nets offense is nothing if not a harbinger of more good things to come.
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
6 of 6
Look, in all honesty, I'm running out of words to describe the Victor Wembanyama experience. He entered the NBA as one of the most touted draft prospects of all time, a surefire generational talent whose only roadblock to transcendent longevity was the "as long as he stays healthy" qualifier that, quite literally, applies to everyone.
Even by these skyscraping, near-unprecedented standards, Wembanyama is exceeding—annihilating—expectations.
The counting stats speak for themselves. And frankly, they're yelling "all-time great in the making." Wembanyama is averaging 18.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 2.4 blocks...in under 30 minutes per game. His efficiency has room to grow from virtually everywhere, but he's still drilling nearly 52 percent of his twos, And while the sub-30-percent clip from three is far from divine, the form and fluidity and comfort firing both on the catch and off the dribble are all positives.
Perhaps most captivating is the variability in how Wembanyama plays. The San Antonio Spurs have not shoehorned him into a play-finishing role. Most of his buckets come off assists, but he has the freedom to self-create. He's also operating, both on- and off-ball, from everywhere—the wing, the middle of the floor, the post, around the basket, in transition, you name it.
Wembanyama's defense, meanwhile, is as advertised: otherworldly. The blocks are cool and unreal and brain-bending, but there's substance to how he moves. He's already one of the league's most effective rim protectors.
What we're witnessing now is universes from projectable. Wembanyama, at freaking 19, in only his second NBA appearance, took over a game featuring Kevin Durant. This is someone, a kid, without limits.
Honorable Mentions: Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, Jalen Johnson
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering games on Friday, Nov. 10. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
.jpg?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft 📝")