Predicting Victor Wembanyama's Complete Rookie Stats
Victor Wembanyama has all the makings of a generational NBA talent. But what will his first year in the league look like, statistically, when he's not yet a finished product and when the San Antonio Spurs aren't in the urgent stages of their competitive timeline?
It's a tantalizing question. And we are about to tackle it—together.
This exercise will spotlight every major per-game stat category: points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. We'll wrap up with an overview of his final stat line.
Remember, the goal here is not to be perfect, hyperbolic or overly cautious. We're trying to ballpark how he'll fare, based upon what we know about his anomalous size, length and functional bag as well as how the Spurs plan or might wind up using him.
Points Per Game
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Getting to 20 points per game or more is the clear launching pad for this discussion. It's not particularly rare for rookies to leapfrog that bar. Over 50 first-year players on record have now spit out more than 20 points per game.
But this feat is far less common for newbies as young as Victor Wembanyma. Just nine rookies age 20 or younger since the three-point era have met the bar. Three have done it since 2010, all of them in the past half-decade: Luka Dončić (2018-19), Zion Williamson (2019-20) and Paolo Banchero (2022-23).
Wembanyama is engendering the same generational hype as Dončić and Williamson—if not more. Assuming the Spurs resist the urge to cap his minutes in the 20s, he will average 20 or more points per game.
Whether he easily skirts past that number, and how efficiently he'll do, remain debatable. Head coach Gregg Popovich doesn't seem to have a concrete plan for how the Spurs will use him. It's possible Wemby tilts toward more play-finisher than hybrid creator as a rookie.
Role functionality shouldn't do much to repress his scoring, though.
"I called one play for him all night and I think he got over 20," Popovich told reporters after the 19-year-old dropped 23 points in 23 minutes against the Portland Trail Blazers on Oct. 13.
San Antonio has afforded Wembanyama the runway to experiment off the dribble. I expect that type of usage to continue given the relatively low stakes of the Spurs' season, albeit on a slightly smaller scale.
That may not be a boon for Wemby's overall efficiency—especially from three, where he cleared a 32 percent clip on real volume while overseas just once. But higher usage itself will keep his scoring lines in the clouds, and he'll get spoon-fed enough to maintain comfy efficiency levels closer to the basket.
Prediction: 20.9 points per game on 53.2 percent two-point shooting, 31.4 percent three-point shooting and 73.9 percent free-throw shooting
Rebounds Per Game
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Many might may be bracing for Victor Wembanyama to grab a trillion rebounds per game. I get it.
He is 7'5" with a standing reach approaching 10 feet. Rival frontcourt players may be strong enough to bounce him around, but you don't need heft to get up over the top of tinier humans or snare long rebounds everyone who doesn't have an eight-foot wingspan simply cannot hope to grab.
At the same time, the Spurs have clearly telegraphed that they'll play Wemby with another big. (That's the right call, for what it's worth.) Guarding more 4s and wings will invariably leave him higher in the half-court and remove him from rebounding sweet spots.
Counterpoint to the counterpoint: Wembanyama's reach and strides are so long it might not matter. And teams should find it hard to scheme him out of the help-side shot-blocking role.
Air Alamo's Noah Magaro-George and myself also wondered on a recent episode of Hardwood Knocks whether San Antonio might employ more zone defense with the Frenchman. Having him as one of three low men should keep him in position not only to protect the rim but also crash the glass.
Still, expecting Wembanyama to average double-figure boards out of the gate feels steep. It's been done just 20 times by rookies in the three-point era, and he just snagged fewer than eight rebounds per 36 minutes during the preseason.
Prediction: 8.4 rebounds per game
Assists Per Game
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Passing might be the biggest question mark of Wembanyama's game. And yet, I'm already sold.
Going up against stronger, athletic NBA defenders may limit some of his opportunities as he gets deeper inside the paint, but he is so darn tall and smart that every other level will be open to him. He can toss less-obvious passes, across the court and over the top of defenders, others wouldn't dare try. He can dime up cutters after leaving his feet or from standstills. He will defer to trailers and sprinters in transition when defenses have eyes for only him.
Sheer usage should drum up his assist totals, too. There is more connectivity to how he plays than we often see; he doesn't need dribbles or head starts to keep the ball moving. But the Spurs will plumb his half-court deliberation with extended touches.
Kick-outs and dump-offs will materialize in droves whenever he breaks down defenses, grinding coverage into a fine powder. He and Jeremy Sochan already seem to operate on one wavelength.
Don't be surprised if and when Wembanyama has games in which he racks up more turnovers than assists. Heck, averaging more of the former than the latter is on the table. Rest assured, though, a floor general-light San Antonio squad will ask him to be a playmaker—through both the beautiful and brutal.
Prediction: 3.7 assists per game
Steals Per Game
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While this entire exercise is something of a stab in the dark, "steals" is the stat category for which I have the least feel.
When you have the wingspan of an aircraft, you're bound to stumble into a fair amount of them. Wembanyama should be able to poke the rock away from streaking ball-handlers and seize 11th-hour kick-outs from unsuspecting drivers who had their backs to the three-point arc just nanoseconds before.
Will he also look to gamble in passing lanes by shooting longer gaps? Do the Spurs nix some of that potential by having him predominantly play below the free-throw line? How aggressive will he be with his hands in one-on-one situations?
Could his standing reach turn deflections into steals when San Antonio elects to trap? Also: How often will the Spurs look to trap with him? (Please let it be a lot.)
These are questions to which I don't have confident answers. So, I will default to the assumption that Wembanyama is long and will play a lot, and because he is long and will play a lot, he will also average over one steal per game.
Prediction: 1.1 steals per game
Blocks Per Game
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It's probably best to start with the record books.
David Robinson's 3.9 swats per game are the most for a rookie in NBA history. Should we just go ahead and pencil in Wembanyama for 4.0 blocks per night and the new-player record?
Probably not. Robinson averaged 36.6 minutes per game. If Wemby sniffs anywhere near that amount of court time, it's because the mothership came, accidentally grabbed Gregg Popovich and returned to Wemby's home planet in a galaxy far, far, far away.
Shaquille O'Neal (3.5), Alonzo Mourning (3.5), Shawn Bradley (3.0) and Dikembe Mutombo (3.0) are the only other newbies to average three or more blocks. Now those benchmarks feel more realistic.
Mutombo (38.3) and Shaq (37.9) both averaged more minutes than the Spurs will give the rookie. That's not really a problem. Overseas block totals tend to translate relatively well to the NBA. Wemby just averaged 3.0 on the button for Metropolitans 92 in 32.1 minutes per game. He also sent back eight shots in roughly 42 minutes of preseason action—the equivalent of over 3.4 per 36 ticks.
Logging reps beside another big shouldn't be too much of a factor here. Wembanyama may enter the league as the most dangerous help-side shot-blocker. More importantly, he doesn't need to be near the basket. He will erase jumpers and floaters, and he can travel from high-to-low to send back looks at the cup.
Ticketing him for the three-blocks-per-game rookie club is still ambitious. But Wemby as a concept is ambitious. If Shawn Bradley can do it in 28.3 minutes per game, I'm banking on Wemby joining the fray while getting closer to between 32 and 34 minutes per game.
Prediction: 3.2 blocks per game
Final Rookie Stat Line
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Here is where I landed on Wembanyama's final rookie stat line, with minutes projections added in for good measure:
- Minutes: 32.6
- Points: 20.9
- Rebounds: 8.4
- Assists: 3.7
- Steals: 1.1
- Blocks: 3.2
- 2P%: 53.2
- 3P%: 31.4
- FT%: 73.9
Am I too delusional? Not delusional enough? Both?
I honestly don't care whether Wemby proves me too optimistic and unimaginitive. I'm just excited, beyond measure, to watch the show.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
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