NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 6

The race for the 2023 NFL MVP award continues to be an unpredictable one. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen overtook Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa as the favorite last week, then went out and had a so-so game (359 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) in a London loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Tagovailoa tossed two interceptions in a win over the rudderless New York Giants, and Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow had his first good game (317 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) of the 2023 season.

All of this has pushed Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes back into the favorite spot. Can Mahomes win his third MVP despite not leading the league in any major category? Where can bettors find value entering Week 6? Let's take a look.

---

Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.

NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 6

David Berding/Getty Images

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes +450 (bet $100 to win $450)

Tua Tagovailoa +475

Jalen Hurts +700

Brock Purdy +700

Josh Allen +700

Christian McCaffrey +1400

Lamar Jackson +2000

Trevor Lawrence +2200

Justin Herbert +2500

Jared Goff +3000

Don't Buy Back into Mahomes Just Yet

David Berding/Getty Images

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - OCTOBER 08: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks on against the Minnesota Vikings in the first half at U.S. Bank Stadium on October 08, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Chiefs defeated the Vikings 27-20. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

Fans who bought into Mahomes early in the season found better odds than they're going to get now. Even after losing to the Detroit Lions in Week 1, Mahomes was still the favorite entering Week 2 at +700.

Doubling down at +450 doesn't make a ton of sense because if Mahomes wins, it'll be because Kansas City finishes with the AFC's best record.

Mahomes is incredible, and there's no denying that. However, he doesn't lead the league in completions, yards, passing touchdowns, yards per attempt, completion percentage or passer rating.

If you already have Mahomes at +700, stick with that wager.

Those who don't already have exposure to Mahomes, however, should consider buying in now. There's a chance that the 28-year-old makes a huge statistical jump this week against a bad Denver Broncos defense, which could make him an even heavier favorite entering Week 7.

The Broncos rank 32nd in yards per pass attempt allowed, passing touchdowns allowed, total yards allowed and points allowed—and Mahomes has never lost to Denver.

Beware Brock Purdy's Sudden Jump

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 08: Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers reacts after a 42-10 victory against the Dallas Cowboys at Levi's Stadium on October 08, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is playing incredible ball right now. He leads the league in adjusted passing yards per attempt (10.67), passer rating (123.1) and QBR (83.6). As Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson recently pointed out, Purdy has fully entered the MVP conversation.

"Not just due to the undefeated 49ers looking like the NFC bully this season, but also because Purdy is now the offensive centerpiece of it. He's officially a problem," Robinson wrote.

We suggested buying into Purdy back in Week 2, when he carried +2500 odds. He's far less enticing at +700 for one simple reason. He plays on the same team as Christian McCaffrey.

If you watch enough 49ers film, it's not hard to see that Purdy is legitimately good. However, there will undoubtedly be voters who point to his supporting cast—specifically, McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle—and suggest that any quarterback would thrive in that environment.

And with McCaffrey (670 scrimmage yards, 8 TDs) emerging as an MVP candidate himself, there's a chance that he and Purdy split too many votes to put either on top.

Consider Jared Goff for Value

Nic Antaya/Getty Images

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - OCTOBER 08: Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions warms up before the game against the Carolina Panthers at Ford Field on October 08, 2023 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

Purdy has put himself in the spotlight with strong play, but it helps that the 49ers have been bullying their opponents. The Detroit Lions are beginning to do the same, which makes Jared Goff an enticing sleeper value at +3000.

Goff's numbers aren't the gaudiest. He's thrown for 1,265 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. However, he ranks ninth in passing yards, seventh (tied) in touchdown passes, sixth in completion percentage (69.8) and sixth in quarterback rating (104.4) and fifth in QBR (71.2).

If Goff continues to play at a consistently high level and a couple of the favorites like Purdy and Tagovailoa cool off, there's a very real chance that he sneaks into the conversation.

Voters love a good story, and Goff can provide one. He was a two-time Pro Bowler and a Super Bowl participant with the Los Angeles Rams before he was offloaded to Detroit for quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Goff is back to Pro Bowl form, and if the Lions continue winning games in impressive fashion, he's going to end up with the other favorites with much shorter odds. Taking a flier on him before it happens would be a perfectly reasonable decision.

---

Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.