Jokić's Nuggets, Tatum's Celtics Deemed 2023-24 Title Favorites in NBA GM Survey

Two weeks away from the start of the 2023-24 NBA regular season, John Schuhmann of NBA.com is back with its annual survey of general managers to get their predictions for what will happen.

Asked to predict which team will win the NBA Finals, the reigning champion Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics tied for first with 33 percent of the votes.

Here are the top five teams from the GM voting:

• Denver Nuggets: 33 percent
• Boston Celtics: 33 percent
• Milwaukee Bucks: 23 percent
• Phoenix Suns: 7 percent
• Los Angeles Clippers: 3 percent

At the risk of angering Nuggets head coach Michael Malone, it's a bit surprising to see them atop the list. They certainly earned the right to be favored after winning the title last season with Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. returning.

But the loss of Bruce Brown Jr. to the Indiana Pacers in free agency is significant. He was a defensive stopper and averaged 12.0 points per game on 51.1 percent shooting in the playoffs. No other team in the Western Conference received overwhelming support. The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers were the only other west clubs in the top five.

One thing that's not a surprise is the Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks being the overwhelming favorites in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks started the race by acquiring Damian Lillard from the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Celtics responded by working out a deal with the Portland Trail Blazers for Jrue Holiday, who was dealt by Milwaukee in the Lillard trade.

In the conference rankings voting, the Miami Heat were the only other team in the Eastern Conference that received at least one first-place mention.

Here's how the GMs are predicting the top four in each conference will play out:

• Eastern Conference: Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers
• Western Conference:  Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors

Despite receiving enough support to be thought of as the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Philadelphia 76ers finished atop the list of teams whose success is toughest to predict because of the ongoing James Harden trade saga.

It's interesting the Clippers received the third-most support to win the Finals among west teams but are fifth in the overall conference rankings predictions. This is presumably due to concerns about how much Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will play.

If those two miss a lot of time during the regular season, the Clippers probably won't win enough games to crack the top four. But if they can stay healthy for an entire postseason, they would have as good a shot as any team of advancing to the Finals.

The same argument could also apply to the other Los Angeles team. The Lakers went to the Western Conference Finals last season because Anthony Davis and LeBron James were healthy after both missed significant time in the regular season.

Looking at the individual awards voting, Jokić is favored to win his third MVP award in the past four seasons. The Nuggets superstar received 43 percent of the vote, more than double the No. 2 vote-getter (Giannis Antetokounmpo: 20 percent). Jayson Tatum (13 percent) and Luka Dončić (10 percent) rounded out the top four.

Jokić also received the most support (33 percent) from GMs who were asked which player they would most want to start a franchise with, followed by San Antonio Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama at 23 percent. Antetokounmpo (13 percent), Dončić (10 percent) and Antony Edwards (five percent) were in the top five.

GMs also voted on the best individual player at each position:

• Point Guard: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
• Shooting Guard: Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
• Small Forward: Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
• Power Forward: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
• Center: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets

Antetokounmpo and Jokić were the overwhelming No. 1 choice at their respective position. Giannis got 97 percent of the vote. Kevin Durant was the only other player to receive a vote at power forward.

Jokić was voted the best center with 93 percent support. Reigning NBA MVP Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis both received a vote.

Not surprisingly, Wembanyama was at the top of the Rookie of the Year (50 percent) and rookie who will be the best player in five years (90 percent) polls. Last year's No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren, who missed the 2022-23 season because of a foot injury, finished third in Rookie of the Year voting with 20 percent. Portland Trail Blazers point guard Scoot Henderson was sandwiched between the two players with 27 percent of the GM vote.

Here are some of the other notable results from the survey:

• Most Promising Young Core: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Best Home-Court Advantage: Denver Nuggets
• Best Defensive Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo
• Best Defensive Team: Boston Celtics
• Best Head Coach: Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat
• Best Pure Shooter: Stephen Curry
• Best Passer: Nikola Jokić
• Best Basketball IQ: Nikola Jokić
• Best Leader: LeBron James

This survey could be bad news for the Nuggets and Celtics. The last time a majority of GMs correctly predicted the NBA champion was the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors.

The Bucks were last year's top choice to win the Finals with 43 percent of the vote. The Warriors, Clippers and Celtics were the other teams that received votes.

This season feels more wide open than last year, which is reflected in the voting. We get to see it all play out when the regular season tips off on Oct. 24.