Bleacher Report's Expert Week 5 NFL Picks
We're about a quarter of the way into the 2023 season, which gives our expert panel a decent sample size of the NFL landscape. Though a lot can change over the next four months, we can already see which teams have great value on the sportsbooks and the squads that will cost you money.
Bleacher Report's NFL expert panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford, took some lumps from several underdogs last week, but the crew managed to stay above .500 against the spread and registered its best record for straight-up picks this season.
This week, our panel only came to a unanimous decision for one game, which means plenty of analysis to go around on split decisions.
Before we get into our picks, check out the ATS and SU standings heading into Week 5 with last week's records in parentheses.
ATS Standings
T-1. Davenport: 35-27-2 (8-7-1)
T-1. O'Donnell: 35-27-2 (8-7-1)
T-3. Gagnon: 33-29-2 (8-7-1)
T-3. Sobleski: 33-29-2 (6-9-1)
T-5. Hanford 30-32-2 (8-7-1)
T-5. Knox: 30-32-2 (8-7-1)
T-5. Moton: 30-32-2 (7-8-1)
Consensus picks: 32-30-2 (8-7-1)
SU Standings
T-1. Hanford: 42-22 (11-5)
T-1 O'Donnell: 42-22 (11-5)
3. Sobleski: 41-23 (10-6)
T-4. Davenport 40-24 (12-4)
T-4. Knox: 40-24 (11-5)
T-4. Moton: 40-24 (11-5)
7. Gagnon: 38-26 (9-7)
Consensus picks: 40-24 (11-5)
Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Oct. 4, at 4 p.m. ET. Check the latest lines at DraftKings. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Chicago Bears (0-4) at Washington Commanders (2-2)
1 of 14
DraftKings Line: Washington -6
When NBC Sports' Peter King speaks, people listen to him with attentive ears.
During a segment on 670 The Score, King shared a belief that Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus' seat may be hot enough that the team could eject him from it after a bad loss.
"You can not lose 14 games in a row and think you should hold on to your job," King said.
King's thought matters because if the team feels change is on the horizon, the players could put together their best performance to keep the status quo, or they could come out flat in clear need of new direction.
Moton thinks Justin Fields will have some success against the Washington Commanders' underwhelming defense.
"The Bears have yet to cover ATS this season, but Fields played fairly well against the Denver Broncos' bottom-tier defense last week, throwing for 335 yards, four touchdowns and an interception (lost one fumble). He'll get another porous defense Thursday night, which gives him an opportunity to gain more momentum.
"The Commanders and Bears rank 29th and 31st in points allowed, respectively. We may see both clubs score more touchdowns than anyone expected in this contest. Bettors should take the points in a matchup between two subpar defenses and perhaps a desperate Bears coaching staff."
Predictions
Davenport: Commanders
Gagnon: Bears
Hanford: Commanders
Knox: Commanders
Moton: Bears
O'Donnell: Bears
Sobleski: Bears
ATS Consensus: Bears +6
SU Consensus: Commanders
Score Prediction: Commanders 24, Bears 20
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) at Buffalo Bills (3-1)
2 of 14
DK Line: Buffalo -5.5
Last week, the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Atlanta Falcons 23-7 at Wembley Stadium. On Sunday, they'll play the Buffalo Bills at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
The Jaguars easily covered against the Falcons, but most of our crew doesn't see how Jacksonville keeps pace with Buffalo's red-hot offense.
Over the previous three weeks, the Bills have averaged 41 points per game, and they've turned the ball over once in that stretch. In that same span, the Jaguars haven't scored more than 23 points in a single game, reaching the end zone only four times.
Based on those scoring numbers, Buffalo should cover by a touchdown or more, but Sobleski thinks Jacksonville benefits from staying over in London.
"The Bills should be heavily favored over the Jaguars after their performance against the Miami Dolphins," Sobleski wrote. "As a straight-up pick, Buffalo is an easy choice. However, Jacksonville holds a significant advantage this week to keep the contest close.
"The Jaguars played in London this past weekend as part of this season's first international game. With back-to-back games in Merry Old England, the team chose to stay and practice overseas all week. The Jags already adjusted to the time difference with no extra travel. The Bills don't have the same luxury."
Predictions
Davenport: Bills
Gagnon: Bills
Hanford: Bills
Knox: Bills
Moton: Bills
O'Donnell: Bills
Sobleski: Jaguars
ATS Consensus: Bills -5.5
SU Consensus: Bills
Score Prediction: Bills 31, Jaguars 21
Carolina Panthers (0-4) at Detroit Lions (3-1)
3 of 14
DK Line: Detroit -9.5
At some point, the Carolina Panthers must do more to help rookie quarterback Bryce Young. He's taken 11 sacks in three games, and the team has a mediocre pass-catching group that's led by 33-year-old Adam Thielen.
According to NFL insider Jordan Schultz, the Panthers would like to acquire a "No. 1-caliber wide receiver."
Well, the Panthers haven't made a move on that front yet, and they'll go on the road to play the Detroit Lions, who are eighth in scoring and total yards.
While six of our panelists laid the points with Detroit, Gagnon picked Carolina because he believes that a couple of streaks will come to an end.
"EVERYONE I've encountered on the planet is taking the Lions to win and cover here, and I'm big on anti-trend. How likely are the Lions to win three consecutive games by double-digit margins? How likely are the Panthers to lose their first three road games by double-digit margins?
"I know it feels a bit like the gambler's fallacy to reason this way, but it's been successful for me because it's not chance in a parity-drenched league. Plus, the Panthers have too much talent on both sides of the ball to keep losing like this. Three of their four losses have come by 10 points or fewer, so I at least expect them to keep this close."
Predictions
Davenport: Lions
Gagnon: Panthers
Hanford: Lions
Knox: Lions
Moton: Lions
O'Donnell: Lions
Sobleski: Lions
ATS Consensus: Lions -9.5
SU Consensus: Lions
Score Prediction: Lions 34, Panthers 21
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New York Giants (1-3) at Miami Dolphins (3-1)
4 of 14
DK Line: Miami -11
Coming off a Thursday night game in Week 3, the New York Giants had extra time to prepare for their following game with the Seattle Seahawks, who traveled cross country, and still failed to score a touchdown.
On top of their offensive struggles, the Giants have allowed the third-most points leaguewide.
This week, Big Blue will face the Miami Dolphins, who scored 70 points against the Denver Broncos' 32nd-ranked scoring defense in Week 3.
Do the easy math, and you'll see why we heavily leaned toward the Dolphins. O'Donnell, who usually finds value in the Giants ATS, couldn't find a reason to back the G-Men after their embarrassing loss to Seattle.
"The Dolphins scored more points in one game this season…well, actually, we can even shorten that to just three quarters (49 points) than the Giants have scored in four games combined this season (46 points). Anyone who has watched the bruised and battered Big Blue team can see things aren't getting better any time soon even if Saquon Barkley is on the field. It's hard to envision things getting worse, but it's actually possible given the lack of direction and execution on display from the offense.
"I won't get into further specifics, but 11 points is a very big number to cover, and this is still football where anything can happen. But I've already wasted four picks in the Giants' favor this season. I will no longer back a team that has scored only five, yes, five touchdowns this year. I'll take 11 points in a quarter, maybe, but I'll lay them all day on an actual four-quarter game."
Predictions
Davenport: Dolphins
Gagnon: Giants
Hanford: Dolphins
Knox: Dolphins
Moton: Dolphins
O'Donnell: Dolphins
Sobleski: Dolphins
ATS Consensus: Dolphins -11
SU Consensus: Dolphins
Score Prediction: Dolphins 38, Giants 17
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
5 of 14
DK Line: Baltimore -4
In Week 4, the Pittsburgh Steelers took their second 23-plus-point loss of the season and finished the game with a list of key injuries.
Head coach Mike Tomlin told reporters that quarterback Kenny Pickett (bone bruise in knee) will practice this week, but his participation during those sessions will determine his status for Sunday's game.
Tomlin has already ruled out Dan Moore Jr., which means rookie first-round offensive tackle Broderick Jones will get his first start. The Steelers' lead skipper also said that tight end Pat Freiermuth is "very doubtful" for the contest. Defensive lineman DeMarvin Leal is in concussion protocol.
Even if Pickett plays, Hanford has no confidence in offensive coordinator Matt Canada's ability to put his players in position to score enough points to cover a thin spread.
"The Steelers had a chance to build positive momentum last week and failed in spectacular fashion against Houston. Now they're in dire straits with injuries to key players piling up and have a QB coming to town in Lamar Jackson who is in the NFL MVP conversation after four weeks of play.
"The Steelers have beaten Baltimore in five of the last six meetings, but the Steelers haven't faced Jackson in Baltimore's revamped offense, and I expect Pittsburgh's defense to struggle to contain Jackson both through the air and on the ground.
"Whether it's a banged-up Kenny Pickett or a healthy Mitch Trubisky, it's hard to imagine the Steelers finding much success against a Ravens defense allowing fewer than 15 points per game.
"I'll likely repeat that line every week as long as Matt Canada still has a job. T.J. Watt could always make a game-altering play and turn this game on its head, but the Steelers will need more help than that against Baltimore. I like the Ravens to win by a touchdown to earn their third AFC North road win to start the season."
Predictions
Davenport: Ravens
Gagnon: Ravens
Hanford: Ravens
Knox: Ravens
Moton: Ravens
O'Donnell: Ravens
Sobleski: Ravens
ATS Consensus: Ravens -4
SU Consensus: Ravens
Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Steelers 16
Houston Texans (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
6 of 14
DK Line: Atlanta -2
Coming into this contest, the Houston Texans have won consecutive outings while the Atlanta Falcons have dropped their last two games.
As these teams trend in opposite directions, we will see a clash of styles.
The Falcons want to establish the run with Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and perhaps design a few plays that allow quarterback Desmond Ridder to use his legs as well.
The Texans may have found their franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud, who can toss the pigskin all over the field. He's fourth across the league in passing yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions.
With the exception of Moton and O'Donnell, our crew took the Texans with their high-flying aerial attack over the Falcons' methodical offensive approach.
"The Falcons are a fun team to watch—if you're from 1957 and hate watching Kyle Pitts come anywhere near a football," Davenport quipped. "Otherwise, Atlanta's ground-and-pound approach and Arthur Smith's hatred for the forward pass can be a little—yeah.
"Meanwhile, someone forgot to tell the Houston Texans they were supposed to be terrible, largely because rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is already exponentially better than Patrick Mahomes, Joe Montana, Tom Brady and Johnny Utah combined. I may have gotten a little carried away with that last part, but the Texans are playing well, while the Falcons are, well, playing. Texans win outright and move above .500 for the first time since Week 1 of the 2021 season."
Predictions
Davenport: Texans
Gagnon: Texans
Hanford: Texans
Knox: Texans
Moton: Falcons
O'Donnell: Falcons
Sobleski: Texans
ATS Consensus: Texans +2
SU Consensus: Texans
Score Prediction: Texans 24, Falcons 21
Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
7 of 14
DK Line: Tennessee -1
The Indianapolis Colts offense has become a joy to watch with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson under center.
While Richardson has to improve his completion rate (57 percent), he forces defenders to come downhill to stop the run. The rookie signal-caller has 23 carries for 131 yards and four touchdowns. Don't sleep on Richardson's arm, though. He's thrown for three touchdowns and only one interception.
Even though the Titans found their groove on the ground in a 27-3 win over the Cincinnati Bengals (173 rushing yards) and have won five consecutive matchups with the Colts, most of our experts believe Richardson's playmaking ability tips the scale in Indianapolis' favor, especially Sobleski.
"The NFL should be worried, because Anthony Richardson is starting to figure things out. After falling behind 23-0 to the Los Angeles Rams in the third quarter last week, Richardson and Co. pushed the game into overtime. The amount of fight found in this squad compared to last year is night and day.
"Richardson is a large reason the team is so competitive, because he's physically capable of doing it all. Furthermore, the Colts are stout in the middle of their defense. Tied for fifth overall in sacks, they'll overwhelm the Titans' subpar offensive line."
Predictions
Davenport: Colts
Gagnon: Colts
Hanford: Colts
Knox: Colts
Moton: Titans
O'Donnell: Titans
Sobleski: Colts
ATS Consensus: Colts +1
SU Consensus: Colts
Score Prediction: Colts 26, Titans 23
New Orleans Saints (2-2) at New England Patriots (1-3)
8 of 14
DK Line: New England -1
The Bill Belichick facepalm meme basically summed up the New England Patriots' 38-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week.
This offseason, New England hired offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien to fix a unit that sputtered throughout the 2022 campaign under former offensive play-caller Matt Patricia, who's now a senior defensive assistant on the Philadelphia Eagles staff.
Even with the coaching change, New England's offense is still inefficient and non-explosive. The Patriots have turned the ball over multiple times in three out of four games, and they're 30th in scoring.
Last week, Belichick benched Mac Jones for Bailey Zappe in a blowout loss, but he told reporters that the former will start against the New Orleans Saints.
On top of their offensive woes, the Patriots lost edge-rusher Matthew Judon (indefinitely) and cornerback Christian Gonzalez (for the season). To patch up a banged-up defense, they acquired cornerback J.C. Jackson, who played his first four seasons in New England.
Knox believes the Patriots have to overcome too much on both sides of the ball to win this game.
"The Patriots are coming off their worst loss of the Bill Belichick era, and he's looking for the 300th win of his career. We've become so accustomed to seeing New England rebound from big losses and shine in big moments that a Patriots victory and an 'on to Las Vegas' postgame quote might feel inevitable.
"However, this isn't the Patriots of the 2010s. New England has zero faith in Jones and serious offensive issues that can't be solved with the current roster. I see a low-scoring, defensive battle here. With Gonzalez and Judon both injured for New England, I'll take the Saints."
Predictions
Davenport: Patriots
Gagnon: Patriots
Hanford: Patriots
Knox: Saints
Moton: Patriots
O'Donnell: Saints
Sobleski: Saints
ATS Consensus: Patriots -1
SU Consensus: Patriots
Score Prediction: Patriots 20, Saints 17
Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2)
9 of 14
DK Line: Philadelphia -4
The Philadelphia Eagles will go into Week 5 as one of the league's two undefeated teams. Though the Eagles had some hiccups with four turnovers and a 27th-ranked pass defense that's susceptible to big plays, they're plus-28 in point differential.
Most of our experts don't see Philadelphia stubbing its toe in a matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, but Hanford made a strong case in favor of the home underdog.
"The Eagles may be undefeated, but things haven't been easy," Hanford wrote. "I don't think things get any easier traveling to Los Angeles to play against a Rams team that's 3-0-1 against the spread.
"Matthew Stafford is second in the NFL in passing yards and could get Cooper Kupp back this week. Even if he doesn't, Puka Nacua's production has been inevitable. The Eagles have allowed only one WR to go over 100 receiving yards this year, but Nacua will test their banged-up secondary.
"The Eagles should have success running the ball, but things haven't looked as easy for Jalen Hurts this season, and now he will face a Rams defense allowing the seventh-fewest passing yards per game.
"The Rams have been one of the bigger surprises this season. I like the Eagles to hold off this feisty Rams team for the win, but I'd take L.A. to cover."
Predictions
Davenport: Eagles
Gagnon: Eagles
Hanford: Rams
Knox: Eagles
Moton: Eagles
O'Donnell: Rams
Sobleski: Eagles
ATS Consensus: Eagles -4
SU Consensus: Eagles
Score Prediction: Eagles 26, Rams 20
Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) at Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
10 of 14
DK Line: Cincinnati -3
Clearly, Joe Burrow's lingering calf injury has impacted the Cincinnati Bengals offense. He hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since Week 2. Last week, the Tennessee Titans limited him to his fourth-lowest passing yards total as an NFL starter.
Yet Bengals head coach Zac Taylor told reporters that Burrow can operate the offense at less than 100 percent.
While Burrow is capable, he's been mostly ineffective since he reaggravated his calf injury during Cincinnati's Week 2 matchup with the Baltimore Ravens.
We came to a consensus in favor of the Arizona Cardinals, and Davenport spoke on behalf of the majority.
"I may have some residual heatstroke from living in Arizona for 17 years, but despite being burned by the Cardinals last week (for which I blame Christian McCaffrey personally), I'm taking Arizona to not only cover against the Bengals but win outright," Davenport said.
"It's not so much the Cardinals, although Joshua Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise, and James Conner has run the ball well. But the more the Bengals insist that Joe Burrow's injured calf isn't a problem, the surer I become that it is—probably because I've also watched what was one of the NFL's most prolific offenses play like the 2022 Broncos. The Bengals are dead last in the league in total offense and last in the AFC in scoring—you gotta score points to lay points."
Predictions
Davenport: Cardinals
Gagnon: Bengals
Hanford: Bengals
Knox: Cardinals
Moton: Bengals
O'Donnell: Cardinals
Sobleski: Cardinals
ATS Consensus: Cardinals +3
SU Consensus: Bengals
Score Prediction: Bengals 23, Cardinals 21
Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
11 of 14
DK Line: Kansas City -4.5
Last Sunday, the Minnesota Vikings earned their first victory of the season, and later in the day, the Kansas City Chiefs found a way to win a sloppy outing with the New York Jets.
Through the first four weeks, the Chiefs have scored more than 23 points in only one outing. They've scored 40.6 percent of their points this season in a 41-10 win over the Chicago Bears.
O'Donnell understands that Minnesota may fall under an avalanche of Kansas City's scoring, but he likes the Vikings to lose by a small margin, which had been a pattern for them before their Week 4 victory.
"I haven't been burned enough by the Vikings yet, apparently. There's no argument as to which is the better team. I can't put lipstick on a pig and tell you the Vikings defense has gotten better or more trustworthy, or that an underachieving offense is ready to break out. Heck, Minnesota barely held on to knock off the winless Panthers last week.
"But the Vikes have lost by margins of three, six and four this season while not looking too great, or even good, in the process. The Chiefs, outside of a beatdown of the winless Bears, don't look like world-beaters, and there has not been any indication of them rounding into their Super Bowl-caliber potential yet either. That could easily come in this game, which is apparently why I'm the only one chanting 'Skol' this week with a pretty favorable line for Kansas City to cover.
"But I'll stick with the numbers and hope for a backdoor cover from a team that is outscored by 4.3 points per game in its losses."
Predictions
Davenport: Chiefs
Gagnon: Chiefs
Hanford: Chiefs
Knox: Chiefs
Moton: Chiefs
O'Donnell: Vikings
Sobleski: Chiefs
ATS Consensus: Chiefs -4.5
SU Consensus: Chiefs
Score Prediction: Chiefs 31, Vikings 24
New York Jets (1-3) at Denver Broncos (1-3)
12 of 14
DK Line: Denver -2
We're going to see Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton's comments about New York Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett's short, unsuccessful tenure with the AFC West club pop up in headlines this week, though bettors should pay attention to Denver's defense.
Through four weeks, the Broncos have allowed the most points and yards. On Wednesday, they cut edge-rusher Randy Gregory, whom they signed to a five-year, $70 million deal during the 2022 offseason.
The Broncos hired Payton and the current coaching staff early this year, so they may have to turn over their defensive personnel to strengthen the unit.
While Knox isn't sure whether Jets quarterback Zach Wilson can build on a solid Week 4 performance, he expects Gang Green to run the ball right through the Broncos defense.
"Will we see consecutive good games from Zach Wilson? I don't know. I do know that the Broncos are giving up 5.6 yards per carry. Nathaniel Hackett has something to prove against Sean Payton and the Broncos, and I'm going to assume that he has enough sense to craft a game plan that features plenty of Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook.
"New York's defense hasn't played like the same dominant unit it was a year ago, but I think it can do enough to slow a resurgent Russell Wilson and the Denver offense. I expect a 'welcome back to fantasy stardom' game from Hall and a narrow Jets victory on the first and only stop of the Hackett Revenge Tour."
Predictions
Davenport: Broncos
Gagnon: Broncos
Hanford: Jets
Knox: Jets
Moton: Jets
O'Donnell: Broncos
Sobleski: Broncos
ATS Consensus: Broncos -2
SU Consensus: Broncos
Score Prediction: Broncos 21, Jets 17
Dallas Cowboys (3-1) at San Francisco 49ers (4-0)
13 of 14
DK Line: San Francisco -3.5
The Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers will square off in the marquee Sunday Night Football matchup.
Under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys beat the 49ers 41-33 in Week 15 of the 2020 campaign but lost their two playoff matchups with San Francisco by an average of 6.5 points.
This season, both clubs are 3-1 ATS. Four of our experts picked the 49ers to cover, but Gagnon can't ignore the hook (.5).
"It wouldn't blow my mind if the red-hot 49ers pulled away and covered, but I have to use that hook to my advantage considering how closely matched these teams are. These clubs battled close in the last two matchups, and Dallas might be due to flip the script after falling in both," Gagnon said.
"I also wonder when the clock will strike midnight on Brock Purdy. This seems like an obvious potential spot for that. Either way, it looks and feels like a field-goal game."
Predictions
Davenport: 49ers
Gagnon: Cowboys
Hanford: 49ers
Knox: 49ers
Moton: 49ers
O'Donnell: Cowboys
Sobleski: Cowboys
ATS Consensus: 49ers -3.5
SU Consensus: 49ers
Score Prediction: 49ers 28, Cowboys 24
Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-3)
14 of 14
DK Line: Green Bay -1
Most of our crew expects the Green Bay Packers offense to pick up steam with running back Aaron Jones and wideout Christian Watson back from hamstring injuries. Both returned in a Week 4 Thursday night loss to the Detroit Lions. Jones recorded four carries for 18 yards, and Watson caught two passes for 25 yards and a touchdown.
Moton isn't so sure about the Packers offense even with a couple of starters healthy again. He thinks Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams and a much-maligned defense will help Vegas pull off an upset.
"The Raiders haven't scored more than 18 points in a single game, but that should change on Monday night whether Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion protocol) or rookie Aidan O'Connell starts under center," Moton wrote.
"The Packers have allowed 211 rushing yards in two of their first four outings, which means Jacobs should finally be able to get going on the ground. If he finds room to run, Vegas can break out of its offensive stupor.
"Opposing teams haven't been able to slow down Adams. He's tied with Justin Jefferson for third in receptions and ranks eighth in receiving yards. The All-Pro wideout will play against his former team for the first time, which may give him a little extra juice to put up big numbers.
"In Week 4, the Raiders defense limited Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert to career lows in completions (13), passing yards (167) and forced its first turnover of the season. Love has thrown three interceptions over the last two weeks; he may struggle against a defensive unit that shut out the Chargers in the second half of last week's game.
"Raiders eke out their first win at home since Week 15 of the 2022 campaign."
Predictions
Davenport: Packers
Gagnon: Packers
Hanford: Packers
Knox: Packers
Moton: Raiders
O'Donnell: Packers
Sobleski: Packers
ATS Consensus: Packers -1
SU Consensus: Packers
Score Prediction: Packers 26, Raiders 21
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