Fantasy Football Week 5: Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Options for Redraft and Dynasty
With a full month of the 2023 NFL season in the books, we now have enough data to comb through and spot some trends. It's the ideal time to for fantasy football managers to make roster adjustments.
However, it's also important not to read too much into some early performances. In fact, you can even capitalize on overreactions from this relatively small data set.
Some noteworthy fantasy performers from years past are off to slow starts but are still seeing enough volume to eventually shine again. Other players are coming off an injury and aren't 100 percent yet but could soon thrive when healthy. These are the types of ideal buy-low candidates you should take off the hands of impatient managers at a discount.
Conversely, this is also the time to try to maximize the returns you can get for players whose performance may not be sustainable.
Some may be off to blistering hot starts but won't be able to keep scoring at their current rates once teammates return from injury and surpass them on the depth chart. Others may be coming off a great game or two but are likely to regress sooner than later. You'll want to get ahead of this impending drop-off by selling high and maximizing your returns.
Fantasy points and rankings are based on FantasyPros' PPR data.
Sell High: Zack Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts
1 of 6
Zack Moss has stepped in for injured Indianapolis Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor the past three games to the tune of 322 yards on 72 total touches with two touchdowns. That's 4.47 yards per touch and over 100 total yards per game. Moss has had an every-down role whether playing with developing rookie QB Anthony Richardson or veteran reserve QB Gardner Minshew.
The aforementioned Taylor, who is now eligible to return from the PUP list and can begin practicing with the team as early as this week, has not formally rescinded his trade request made this offseason.
Head coach Shane Steichen said he could play as soon as Sunday. But there is no guarantee Taylor will immediately step into the lineup this week as the team has 21 days before he is required to be activated to the 53-man roster. In fact, he hasn't played in an actual football game since December 17 of last year. With Moss playing well, the Colts do not have to rush things. That's the manager's selling point on Moss right now.
Taylor's talent is undeniable, but his status is uncertain. Moss, meanwhile, is exactly the type of player desperate fantasy managers whose postseason hopes are starting to fade must consider overspending on for immediate help even if there is long-term risk.
Taylor could return to his previous role sooner than later and Moss gets relegated to handcuff-only value. There's also a chance Taylor doesn't get rushed back or is actually traded away, leaving Moss as the bell cow. There is no shortage of potential scenarios here right now.
Use that uncertainty as leverage to get away from this situation while you can to bring in a more stable player in the event Moss' value diminishes completely.
Buy Low: Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
2 of 6
Josh Jacobs was the NFL's rushing champion last year, but he's off to a tepid start this season. The Las Vegas Raiders' feature back looked out of sync to start the year, especially in Week 2, when he had minus-two yards on nine carries.
He's begun to turn things around, though, and he could continue to trend upward as the team tries to snap its three-game losing skid. While Jacobs has fared poorly on the ground and is averaging an abysmal 2.68 yards per carry this year—a far cry from the 4.9 he posted last season—he's finally starting to get more involved as a pass-catcher.
After tallying only 10 receptions on 14 targets over the first three weeks, the Alabama product had his first double-digit target day of his career against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 4. Jacobs salvaged a mediocre 17-carry, 58-yard showing on the ground by scoring a rushing touchdown and hauling in eight receptions for 81 yards.
That didn't result in a Raiders victory, but it at least proved the offense is working to get Jacobs more involved. He also remains Vegas' main contributor out of the backfield by a wide margin, as he is logging 76 percent of the offensive snaps—the highest mark of his career and up from the 75 percent he played last year.
With no one pushing Jacobs for volume and a workload that has been steadily increasing, expect him to have far more strong fantasy days than bad ones moving forward. Try to get him on your roster now before he has another good performance and raises his value.
Sell High: Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
3 of 6
Puka Nacua has been arguably the top story of the 2023 fantasy football season. His out-of-nowhere ascendance from an unheralded fifth-round pick to one of the top five scorers at his position has been remarkable, but this incredible run may soon come to an abrupt end.
Nacua is coming off his best outing yet, reeling in nine of 10 targets for 163 yards and a game-winning touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts. He posted a career-high 31.3 fantasy points and finished in the top five receivers for the second time in three weeks, but the impending return of Cooper Kupp will likely put a damper on this magical run.
Kupp landed on IR right before the 2023 campaign began with a nagging hamstring injury. He's been steadily rehabilitating and is set to return to practice this week, opening a 21-day window to be activated. Head coach Sean McVay said "the hope" is that the veteran receiver will suit up and plays in Week 5 against the Philadelphia Eagles.
While McVay also said he believes Nacua will "continue to play at a high level" upon Kupp's return, that doesn't mean the rookie will remain a fantasy superstar. Kupp and quarterback Matthew Stafford have a rare brand of chemistry that resulted in Kupp becoming one of the few players to ever notch the receiving triple crown during the team's Super Bowl-winning 2021 campaign.
Rather than waiting for Kupp to usurp Nacua, fantasy managers should consider moving him now for the best possible return. Nacua is likely to be a WR3 with Kupp in the lineup rather than the WR1 he is now, so try to get a WR2 worth of value in exchange for him.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Buy Low: Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
4 of 6
The Green Bay Packers have a litany of young skill-position talent on their roster right now. While some of their up-and-coming players are performing well in fantasy—Romeo Doubs just had a breakout nine-catch, 95-yard showing in Week 4—others, such as Christian Watson, have been disappointments.
Watson has been a non-factor for managers in 2023. He missed the first three weeks of the season because of a hamstring injury and then caught only two passes for 25 yards and a touchdown in his season debut against the Detroit Lions last Thursday.
With Watson accounting for only 10.5 PPR points over the first month of the season, his fantasy managers may be growing frustrated. Watson may not be living up to his 55.3 ADP, but that should soon change.
The 6'5", 200-pound Watson is an ideal weapon for young quarterback Jordan Love to lean on in the red zone. His massive frame helps him create mismatches against smaller defensive backs, while his strong hands and leaping ability give him an advantage in jump-ball situations.
Expect Watson to continue getting plenty of looks around the end zone, especially as he gets more in sync with Love and shakes off the rust from an extended layoff.
Sell High: Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
5 of 6
The Chicago Bears are in disarray after they dropped to 0-4 following a disheartening defeat to the Denver Broncos. Justin Fields, considered one of the top quarterbacks to have in both redraft and dynasty leagues going into the season, has been at the center of this disaster.
Fields managed to finish Week 4 as the No. 3 scorer at his position thanks to a career-high 335 passing yards and four touchdowns. However, it feels like it's only a matter of time before Chicago is forced to make some sweeping changes.
Despite limited success in the win column last year, Fields came into the 2023 season with tons of fantasy hype. He finished as the No. 6 quarterback last season largely thanks to his rushing contributions—he amassed 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns on 160 carries—but the Bears aren't properly utilizing that skill set this year.
The Bears dialed up only three designed runs for Fields over the first three weeks, per Derek Brown of FantasyPros, and he has rushed for only 134 yards and one touchdown on the year. While he finally had a good passing day in Week 4, it's tough to envision that becoming a trend considering it occurred against a Broncos squad that gave up 70 points the prior week.
Fields also lost a fumble midway through the fourth quarter which the Broncos returned for a game-tying touchdown. It was the latest in a string of mishaps that make it harder to project a real turnaround for the 24-year-old.
Rather than sticking it out with Fields, make the most of his recent explosion and any lingering hype by selling as high as you can. Act fast, too, as the Bears face a tough Washington Commanders defense on Thursday Night Football in Week 5.
Buy Low: Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
6 of 6
The Cincinnati Bengals have had a trying start to their 2023 season and hit a low point Sunday when they lost 27-3 to the Tennessee Titans. They were expected to be a Super Bowl contender this year but have seemed completely out of sync on both sides of the ball.
Joe Burrow is slogging through the worst start of his young career. Those struggles are being amplified by the nagging calf injury that has plagued him since training camp.
Through four games, Burrow has completed only 57.6 percent of his throws for 728 yards and two touchdowns. He's been intercepted twice and sacked eight times while leading an offense that ranks last in both yardage and points scored this year.
It's clear that Burrow isn't his normal self right now. The calf strain he suffered in the offseason is severely limiting his ability to command the offense. His longest completion on Sunday was only 17 yards, and his rushing ability is basically nonexistent, as evidenced by the one yard he gained on three carries this week.
However, it's not time to give up on the 26-year-old, especially not in dynasty leagues where he has become perhaps the best buy-low candidate of all. While there's a chance that the Bengals shut Burrow down for a stretch—some injury experts believe that he may need an IR stint—that could actually help fantasy managers in the long run.
Having a full-strength Burrow in the lineup later in the year could be the edge your squad needs to make a championship push. It isn't the type of injury that should linger for long, making his dynasty outlook for the next decade-plus as bright as ever.
If you can get Burrow for pennies on the dollar, make the move and consider him a backup quarterback at best for now. You'll be able to reap the rewards by starting him when he's healthy down the line.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
