Canelo Álvarez vs. Jermell Charlo: Fight Odds, Live Stream, Predictions
Two world champions collide when Jermell Charlo moves up two weight classes to face Canelo Àlvarez for Àlvarez's title of undisputed super middleweight titles.
Charlo is the reigning light middleweight (154 pounds) champion, however, he will be stripped of his WBO belt once he enters the ring against Àlvarez. Tim Tsyzu and Brian Mendoza are set to square off for that championship on October 15.
Àlvarez was originally aiming to fight Charlo's twin brother Jermall Charlo, who happens to be the WBC champion at 160 pounds, but he has been inactive due to mental health reasons. Thus, the matchup between these two titleholders was born.
It's obviously a big jump up in weight to 168 pounds, but Charlo comes in at No. 7 on B/R's latest pound-for-pound rankings while Àlvarez is fifth.
Regardless of matchup, every Àlvarez fight is an event. Here's all the info you need to catch the bout as well as a preview and prediction for the championship tilt.
Fight Schedule, Live Stream and Odds
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When: Saturday, 9/30 at 8 p.m. ET (main event approximately 11 p.m. ET)
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Live stream: Showtime PPV
Odds: Àlvarez -475 (wager $475 to win $100); Charlo +350 ($100 wager wins $350)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Top Storylines
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Is Canelo Fading?
As the odds would indicate, Canelo Àlvarez in his prime would be a heavy favorite over Jermell Charlo. As good as Charlo is, Àlvarez is at least equally skilled and has already shown he can be successful at 168 pounds.
That makes the question of whether or not Àlvarez is still in his prime as the biggest question in this bout. Àlvarez is now 33 years old and time doesn't spare anyone. He is 2-1 in his last three fights but none have stood out as excellent performances.
He cruised to a unanimous decision over a clearly overmatched John Ryder and earned a razor-thin decision win over Gennadiy Golovkin after a loss to Dmitrii Bivol. Canelo has heard the criticism, but doesn't agree that he's on the decline.
"I agree that a couple fights I don't look the same, but that doesn't mean other things," Àlvarez said, per Mike Coppinger of ESPN. "I feel fresh, I feel young and I feel strong. I feel in my prime, and you will see Saturday."
This is a perfect opportunity for him to answer those critics. Charlo is a skilled opponent who should push him more than Ryder did. If Canelo isn't slipping he'll easily handle it. If he's losing a step, it'll show up Saturday night.
Will Charlo's Skills Translate at 168 Pounds?
From Charlo's perspective, the biggest story of the fight is how well he handles jumping two weight classes. The leap from 154 pounds to 168 pounds isn't insignificant.
The list of fighters who have been able to jump up two weight classes and win a title is short and prestigious. Àlvarez is one of the few to do it when he jumped from middleweight to light heavyweight (from 160 pounds to 175 pounds).
The fact that Charlo is attempting to do the same thing against a fighter with as much pound-for-pound significance as Canelo only makes it more impressive.
The question is whether Charlo is up to the task. His trainer, Derrick James, believes he is.
"He has the tools to do it," James said, per Tashan Reed of The Athletic. "He has the speed. He has the skills. He has the athleticism. All those things are coming together, and we've helped build and develop a great strategy around everything he can do. So, he'll go out there and put it to work."
If it's respect that Charlo is after, going up and taking down a giant in Àlvarez will certainly do it.
Prediction
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Àlvarez might follow through as the favorite here, but it isn't going to be easy.
Canelo can say that he isn't slipping and that he feels young. His performances in the ring lately say otherwise. He just looks a step slow and the punches don't have the impact they used to.
That being said, this matchup might be a bridge too far for Charlo. He's a talented and skilled guy but he hasn't fought in over a year and he's making a huge leap against a pound-for-pound mainstay.
Charlo's speed and movement are going to give him moments in this fight. It will be far from a clean sweep on the scorecards. Against Ryder, Canelo was aggressive in the early rounds before putting things on cruise control.
If Charlo can ride out the early onslaught from Canelo he has a shot to bank some of the middle rounds and make things interesting down the stretch.
At this point, it's hard to see a Canelo finish against any quality opponent. He's not washed enough to lose outright, but this should be an entertaining bout that at least makes the judges work a little bit.
Prediction: Àlvarez via decision
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