NBA Scout Predicts Rule Change on Contracts Could Lead to More Trades, 'Lock Out' FA

Free agency is already falling out of favor in the NBA, but at least one person working in the league believes the new collective bargaining agreement is going to make it even less of a factor going forward.

One Eastern Conference scout told ESPN's Tim Bontemps trades will likely be the primary source of player movement because the new extension rules could ultimately "lock out" free agency.

While most of the attention in the new CBA was on the penalties teams would incur if they exceed the second apron of the luxury tax, one of the biggest changes was to veteran contract extensions.

Per an April 1 report from ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, teams are now eligible to offer players an extension that increases their salary by 40 percent in the first season of a new deal instead of the usual 20 percent.

The example Wojnarowski cited at the time involved Boston Celtics star Jaylen Brown, who would've been eligible for a four-year, $189 million extension under the new rules as opposed to $165 million over four years under the previous CBA.

Brown's situation turned out to be a moot point when he was named to the All-NBA team and became eligible for a supermax deal worth $304 million over five years that he signed in July.

But the main point is players will be more financially incentivized than they already are to re-sign with their current team rather than try to test the market. We've seen this play out with a number of top stars in recent years anyway.

There have been a number of top stars that were technically free agents in recent years, including Kawhi Leonard in 2021 and Anthony Davis in 2020, but no one expected them to leave their respective teams at the time and they both re-signed.

The 2019 offseason is arguably the last time there have been superstar-level talents who were true free agents willing to explore the market. That was the summer when Leonard originally signed with the Los Angeles Clippers and Kevin Durant joined the Brooklyn Nets.