NFL Picks 2023: Early Week 4 Odds to Exploit after Final Week 3 Results
Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season concluded with a Monday night doubleheader. It was another exciting week of action, but things were dampened again by significant injuries.
Week 1 saw New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffer a season-ending Achilles tear. In Week 2, Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending knee injury.
The Dallas Cowboys lost cornerback Trevon Diggs to a torn ACL during Thursday's practice, while the Los Angeles Chargers lost wideout Mike Williams to the same injury on Sunday.
Significant injuries do impact the outcomes of games, as we saw during Dallas' defensive collapse against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.
Injuries also make it difficult to predict how teams will perform, but we're here to examine three matchups that feel like relatively "safe" plays based on the early lines.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Cleveland Browns -2.5 Versus Baltimore Ravens
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For at least a week, the Browns have managed to survive the loss of their best offensive player.
Jerome Ford, Pierre Strong Jr. and Kareem Hunt did just enough against an elite Tennessee Titans run defense to provide some balance. Cleveland got enough going from the passing game to pull ahead, and its defense took away any opportunity the Titans had to climb into the game.
The Browns defense is good enough that it can carry the team to a lot of wins this season. It ranks first in rushing yards allowed, first in passing yards allowed, first in yards allowed and first in points allowed through three weeks.
The Baltimore Ravens will present a greater challenge because of Lamar Jackson's mobility and penchant for creating big plays down the field. However, they are dealing with several key injuries of their own.
The Ravens played without the likes of Marlon Humphrey, Odell Beckham Jr., Tyler Linderbaum, Ronnie Stanley and Marcus Williams in Week 3. Several important names could miss Week 4 as well.
As long as Cleveland can avoid the sort of offensive disaster it had against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 2, it should win by a field goal in a physical defensive battle.
Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 Versus Las Vegas Raiders
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The loss of Williams will be felt in Los Angeles, but the Chargers still have playmakers in Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and rookie Quentin Johnston. They could also have star running back Austin Ekeler in the lineup against the Las Vegas Raiders.
NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported on Sunday that Ekeler is hopeful to play in Week 4, though L.A. could plan for a return after the Week 5 bye.
If the 28-year-old is looking likely to play, expect this line to shift significantly.
As long as it stays under a touchdown, the Chargers feel like a safe play. The Raiders offense has been far too inconsistent to trust on the road and in a divisional matchup.
It starts with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who has already thrown six interceptions and is making the offense no better than it was with Derek Carr under center. Las Vegas has scored no more than 18 points in a game this season, and its lone win came against a Denver Broncos team that just allowed 70 points to the Miami Dolphins.
There's a chance Garoppolo doesn't even play, as he entered the concussion protocol on Monday, per NFL.com's Kevin Patra. If that's the case, Las Vegas will rely on either journeyman Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O'Connell. It's hard to envision a QB change significantly benefiting the Raiders.
Even with Davante Adams capable of taking over a game—he had 172 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday night—the Raiders offense hasn't been good enough.
If L.A. can find a way to slow Adams to any degree, expect a convincing Chargers win in Week 4.
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 at New York Jets
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Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce looked like himself in his second game back from a knee injury. He caught seven passes for 69 yards and a touchdown, and the offense looked as explosive as it did a year ago.
To be fair, though, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were going against a Chicago Bears defense that has failed to slow anyone this season.
Kansas City will have a tougher time moving the ball against a very good New York Jets defense, but it's the Chiefs defense that should allow them to win big in Week 4.
The Chiefs rank inside the top 10 in both yards and points allowed, and they've logged eight sacks and four takeaways in three games. Kansas City will make life difficult for mistake-prone Jets quarterback Zach Wilson, who has completed 50 percent or less of his passes in his two starts this season.
Mahomes and Co. will do enough for Kansas City to pull ahead by two scores, while the defense smothers New York's hopes of a comeback.
The New England Patriots beat the Jets by five points on Sunday. The Chiefs should at least double that margin.
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