Biggest Risers and Fallers of MLB's Top Prospect List in 2023
Prospect rankings are anything but an exact science, and while many of the game's top prospects go on to develop into MLB stars, there are always a handful who fail to live up to the hype.
Development is rarely linear for most prospects, with ups and downs along the way in the minor leagues, and for every top prospect who has a down year and falls off leaguewide Top 100 prospect lists, there are just as many who put together breakout performances and send their stock soaring.
Ahead we've taken a look back at our preseason Top 100 prospect list to highlight the biggest risers and fallers relative to our most recent update, which was published Sept. 6.
Only players who still hold prospect status were considered for this list, though some of the league's top rookies who exceeded preseason expectations were highlighted on one of our honorable mention slides.
As another minor league season winds to a close, these are the prospects who have seen their stock shift the most in 2023.
Standout Rookies Who Exceeded Their Preseason Ranking
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Before we get started, let's take a look at where some of baseball's most unexpected rookie standouts checked in on our preseason Top 100 list:
Pitchers
LHP Andrew Abbott, CIN (Unranked)
RHP Tanner Bibee, CLE (Next 50)
RHP J.P. France, HOU (Unranked)
Hitters
C Patrick Bailey, SF (Unranked)
IF Zack Gelof, OAK (Next 50)
OF Nolan Jones, COL (Unranked)
SS Matt McLain, CIN (Next 50)
OF James Outman, LAD (Next 50)
IF/OF Spencer Steer, CIN (Next 50)
Other Notable Fallers
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Fallers
OF Brennen Davis, CHC (No. 52 to Unranked)
RHP Cade Cavalli, WAS (No. 53 to Unranked)
RHP Jack Leiter, TEX (No. 60 to Next 50)
C Drew Romo, COL (No. 61 to Unranked)
3B Jacob Berry, MIA (No. 63 to Unranked)
C Kevin Parada, NYM (No. 67 to Next 50)
OF Alex Ramirez, NYM (No. 71 to Unranked)
OF Gavin Cross, KC (No. 75 to Unranked)
OF Andy Pages, LAD (No. 79 to Unranked)
RHP Gordon Graceffo, STL (No. 84 to Unranked)
LHP Mason Montgomery, TB (No. 97 to Unranked)
RHP Taylor Dollard, SEA (No. 99 to Unranked)
Other Notable Risers
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Risers
3B Coby Mayo, BAL (Next 50 to No. 36)
RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, ATL (Unranked to No. 37)
1B/OF Heston Kjerstad, BAL (Next 50 to No. 40)
LHP Noah Schultz, CWS (Unranked to No. 42)
SS Luisangel Acuña, NYM (Unranked to No. 43)
C Jeferson Quero, MIL (Unranked to No. 44)
SS Cole Young, SEA (Next 50 to No. 45)
C Samuel Basallo, BAL (Unranked to No. 47)
RHP Jacob Misiorowski, MIL (Unranked to No. 48)
OF Yanquiel Fernandez, COL (Unranked to No. 52)
LHP Anthony Solometo, PIT (Unranked to No. 57)
SS/OF Jett Williams, NYM (Unranked to No. 61)
RHP Ben Brown, CHC (Unranked to No. 67)
RHP Jared Jones, PIT (Unranked to No. 69)
RHP Nick Frasso, LAD (Unranked to No. 71)
LHP Jordan Wicks, CHC (Unranked to No. 77)
LHP Frank Mozzicato, KC (Unranked to No. 81)
LHP Robert Gasser, MIL (Unranked to No. 82)
RHP Chase Hampton, NYY (Unranked to No. 85)
3B Tyler Black, MIL (Unranked to No. 87)
OF Owen Caissie, CHC (Unranked to No. 89)
RHP Caden Dana, LAA (Unranked to No. 95)
RHP Jairo Iriarte, SD (Unranked to No. 99)
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No. 5 Biggest Faller: OF Elijah Green, Washington Nationals
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Preseason Rank: 50
Current Rank: Unranked
Elijah Green was a candidate to go No. 1 overall in the 2022 draft before raising some red flags with more swing-and-miss than expected during his senior year of high school, but that didn't stop the Washington Nationals from rolling the dice on his huge five-tool upside with the No. 5 overall pick.
With a strong 6'3", 225-pound frame and an elite combination of speed, power and athleticism, he had arguably the highest ceiling in the entire 2022 class, but he also had significant boom-or-bust risk, and so far he is trending toward bust.
The 19-year-old has struck out 150 times in 83 games this season between rookie ball and Single-A, hitting .218/.336/.327 with 21 extra-base hits and a 41.6 percent strikeout rate in 361 plate appearances.
It will take significant adjustments in his approach at the plate to unlock his potential.
No. 5 Biggest Riser: LHP Robby Snelling, San Diego Padres
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Preseason Rank: Unranked
Current Rank: 31
A 4-star football prospect at 247Sports, Robby Snelling has been the prototypical two-sport high school standout who takes off once he turns his full attention to one sport, and in this case it has been pitching in the San Diego Padres system.
The No. 39 overall pick in the 2022 draft has pitched at three different levels this season while reaching Double-A before his 20th birthday, and all told he is 10-3 with a 1.82 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 115 strikeouts in 98.2 innings.
Despite a strong, athletic 6'3", 210-pound frame, he does not have overpowering stuff, with a mid-90s fastball and a good slider headlining his repertoire, but his advanced pitchability and plus command gives him an extremely high floor.
Could we see him in the majors next year as a 20-year-old?
No. 4 Biggest Faller: OF George Valera, Cleveland Guardians
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Preseason Rank: 43
Current Rank: Next 50
Outfielder George Valera has been hyped as having the highest offensive ceiling in the Cleveland system since he signed for $1.3 million as part of the 2017 international class, and while he has shown flashes, his development has fallen flat at Triple-A this year.
The 22-year-old underwent offseason surgery to remove a broken hamate from his right hand, and he did not make his 2023 debut until mid-May as a result.
Since returning to action, he is hitting .212/.343/.374 with 18 extra-base hits and a 26.9 percent strikeout rate in 271 plate appearances, and in a year where he was expected to make his MLB debut, he has instead been a non-factor.
Perhaps he bounces back in 2024 another year removed from the hamate surgery, but for now his stock is down.
No. 4 Biggest Riser: OF Roman Anthony, Boston Red Sox
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Preseason Rank: Unranked
Current Rank: 22
The Boston Red Sox signed outfielder Roman Anthony to an above-slot, $2.5 million bonus as the No. 79 overall pick in the 2022 draft, and that is quickly shaping up to be one of the biggest steals of that draft cycle.
The 19-year-old got off to a slow start to the season at Single-A but caught fire following a promotion to High-A, where he hit .294/.412/.569 with 14 doubles, 12 home runs and 38 RBI in 54 games as one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League.
That performance earned him another promotion to Double-A earlier this month, and in five games he has gone 5-for-19 with three doubles, one home run and three RBI, looking right at home as a teenager in the upper levels of the minors.
Don't be surprised if he overtakes Marcelo Mayer as the top prospect in the Boston system at some point in 2024.
No. 3 Biggest Faller: OF Robert Hassell III, Washington Nationals
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Preseason Rank: 22
Current Rank: Unranked
Viewed as one of the best pure hitters in the 2020 draft class, Robert Hassell III was taken No. 8 overall by the San Diego Padres. He quickly lived up to the hype by hitting .303/.393/.470 with 33 doubles, 11 home runs, 76 RBI and 34 steals in 110 games between Single-A and High-A the following year.
It was more of the same last season, as he posted a .299/.379/.467 line in 75 games at High-A Fort Wayne before he was traded to the Washington Nationals as part of the Juan Soto blockbuster deal at the deadline.
His numbers dipped following the trade, but that's not uncommon for a prospect moved at midseason, and his stock was still extremely high entering the 2023 campaign.
However, after he hit .214/.320/.312 this year while seeing his strikeout rate spike from 22.0 to 29.8 percent, there are some legitimate questions starting to surface about his ability to handle upper-level pitching.
No. 3 Biggest Riser: RHP Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs
9 of 13Preseason Rank: Unranked
Current Rank: 17
No one did more to raise their draft stock during the 2022 College World Series than Cade Horton, who closed out his junior campaign with terrific outings against Notre Dame (6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 11 K) and Ole Miss (7.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 13 K).
The Chicago Cubs called his name at No. 7 overall in what initially looked like a bit of a reach given his middling production during the regular season, but his star turn during Oklahoma's postseason run has proved to be just the tip of the iceberg.
In his first full professional season, he has made 20 starts across three minor league levels and posted a 2.77 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 114 strikeouts in 84.1 innings, showcasing the stuff to be a future front-line starter at the highest level.
The 22-year-old belongs in the conversation with guys like Andrew Painter, Paul Skenes and Kyle Harrison for the title of top pitching prospect in baseball in 2024.
No. 2 Biggest Faller: OF Zac Veen, Colorado Rockies
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Preseason Rank: 20
Current Rank: Unranked
Zac Veen appeared to be on the cusp of the big leagues after he hit .333/.444/.444 with 16 steals in 21 games in the Arizona Fall League, but an injury-plagued 2023 season has derailed his development and cratered his prospect stock.
The 21-year-old hit just .245/.340/.384 in 541 plate appearances during the 2022 season before his impressive run in the AFL boosted his stock, and he has continued to show limited extra-base pop at Double-A this year.
Surgery on his left wrist ended his 2023 season after just 46 games, and prior to being relegated to the sidelines he hit .209/.304/.308 with 11 extra-base hits in 201 plate appearances.
The 2024 season will be pivotal if he is going to develop into the player the Rockies hoped he would be when they selected him No. 9 overall in the 2020 draft.
No. 2 Biggest Riser: 3B Colt Keith, Detroit Tigers
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Preseason Rank: Next 50
Current Rank: 15
Signed for an above-slot $500,000 bonus in the fifth round of the 2020 draft, Colt Keith has quickly developed into one of baseball's most promising offensive prospects.
The 22-year-old got off to a hot start during the 2022 season, but a shoulder injury in early June brought his season to a premature end. He made up for lost time with a trip to the Arizona Fall League and turned heads with a .344/.463/.541 line in 80 plate appearances.
That performance has carried over to a breakout 2023 season, and he is hitting .311/.381/.550 with 34 doubles, 24 home runs and 93 RBI in 115 games between Double-A and Triple-A.
After all the hype surrounding Spencer Torkelson as the No. 1 overall pick, it could wind up being Keith who is the team's best selection from the 2020 draft haul.
No. 1 Biggest Faller: C Diego Cartaya, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Preseason Rank: 13
Current Rank: Next 50
Young catchers who are ahead of the developmental curve and have shown impact upside offensively tend to fly up prospect lists. Case in point, Ethan Salas this year for the San Diego Padres.
Diego Cartaya fit that same profile and entered 2023 as one of baseball's top prospects after hitting .254/.389/.503 with 22 doubles, 22 home runs and 72 RBI in 95 games between Single-A and High-A.
The power production and strong on-base numbers made it easy to overlook his 26.7 percent strikeout rate between Single-A and High-A, but he has been completely overmatched this season against Double-A pitching.
The 22-year-old is hitting .189/.278/.379 with a 29 percent strikeout rate, and while he has still shown solid pop with 19 home runs, his profile is too offense-reliant for his stock to not take a major hit based on that downturn in production.
No. 1 Biggest Riser: SS/3B Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
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Preseason Rank: Next 50
Current Rank: 2
Junior Caminero showed enough during the 2022 season to earn a spot on our "Next 50" list heading into this year, but that was far from a prediction that he would end the year in the conversation for top prospect in the sport.
Acquired from the Cleveland Guardians in an under-the-radar deal for Tobias Myers prior to the 2022 season, Caminero hit .314/.384/.498 with 20 extra-base hits in 63 games between rookie ball and Single-A in his first year in the Tampa Bay system.
That has been a springboard to a huge 2023 campaign, and he is hitting .330/.391/.604 with 18 doubles, 30 home runs, 92 RBI and 82 runs scored in 112 games between High-A and Double-A.
The 20-year-old could be one of the front-runners for 2024 AL Rookie of the Year honors.
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