NFL Week 1 DFS: Cheap Targets and Pricey Fades on DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football
The 2023 NFL season officially got underway on Thursday night, as the Detroit Lions knocked off the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs 21-20.
There were few true fantasy standouts on Thursday, aside from regular daily fantasy sports (DFS) star Amon-Ra St. Brown. However, managers will have plenty of enticing options over the final 15 games of the Week 1 slate.
Of course, not all DFS options provide equal value. For every star that stumbles—like Patrick Mahomes (226 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 45 rushing yards) largely did against Detroit—there's a bargain sleeper waiting to emerge.
Managing values is a big part of the DFS game. Managers can't load up on top skill players without adding a sleeper or two to the budget. They can't overspend on a potential bust and hope to win.
Below, you'll find our picks for the top sleepers and bust-worthy targets to avoid in Week 1.
Get the latest DFS values at DraftKings.
Quarterback
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Target: Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: $5,300
Managers looking for a budget option at QB should eye New Orleans Saints starter Derek Carr.
Carr is still undervalued in DFS games, largely because we don't know what to expect from him in Pete Carmichael's offense. He'll have some solid targets, however, in Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Juwan Johnson.
The Tennessee Titans should also provide frequent opportunities for Carr to shine. Tennessee had the league's top-ranked run defense in 2022 but allowed more passing yards than any other team.
Tennessee also did shockingly little to upgrade their pass defense in the offseason. Expect New Orleans to take a pass-heavy approach to this game and for Carr to be a high-volume producer.
Fade: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: $7,900
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is one of the top dual-threat QBs in the DFS world. His rushing upside gives him a solid floor in Week 1, but I don't like the price point or the matchup with the rival New York Jets.
In two games against New York in 2022, Allen rushed for 133 yards and three touchdowns. That's the good. The bad news is that he passed for only 352 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and two fumbles.
The Jets defense isn't poised to suffer a sudden decline, and if they have a sound game plan for containing Allen as a scrambler, there's real bust potential here.
Allen is the priciest quarterback this week behind Lamar Jackson ($8K), and Jackson has a far more favorable matchup against the Houston Texans. It's hard to advocate using such a high percentage of the roster budget on a quarterback who will be so heavily dependent on the ground game.
Running Back
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Target: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $5,500
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren't carrying lofty expectations into the 2023 season, which is why starting running back Rachaad White can be had at a budget price.
However, White is likely to be a huge part of the game plan, especially early, as the Bucs evaluate what they have in quarterback Baker Mayfield. A capable dual-threat who caught 50 passes last year, White carries a very high PPR floor.
White will also be up against a Minnesota Vikings defense that has struggled to contain running backs in the past. Last year's squad ranked 22nd in yards per attempt allowed, and while the arrival of defensive coordinator Brian Flores will help, Minnesota also parted with a ton of veteran talent in the offseason.
With players like Za'Darius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson and Eric Kendricks no longer in the Vikings lineup, White should have a chance to shine.
Fade: Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals: $6,800
There's a solid chance that White out-performs Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon, who is significantly more costly.
Mixon is a solid runner and receiver with a strong PPR floor. However, I'm fading him at this price point. The Bengals offense has traditionally struggled against the Cleveland Browns, and Mixon was more good than great against a bad Cleveland run defense in 2022.
In two games against the Browns last season, Mixon had nine receptions and 165 scrimmage yards, but he failed to find the end zone.
With a new defensive front that now features Tomlinson, Smith, Myles Garrett and Shelby Harris, the Browns should be much more formidable against the run. Mixon's value hinges highly on his PPR production, and that's not a situation managers should want at a top-15 price tag.
Wide Receiver
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Target: Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders: $5,000
Washington Commanders No. 1 receiver Terry McLaurin has been battling a toe injury. He's been cleared to play, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, but No. 2 receiver Jahan Dotson should still see a heavy target share.
Even with McLaurin in the lineup, Dotson is undervalued at this price point. He was a solid flex option when healthy as a rookie last season, averaging three receptions and 44 yards and scoring seven touchdowns in 12 games.
Dotson should now have a better quarterback situation with second-year signal-caller Sam Howell under center. He also has one of the juiciest fantasy matchups of the week.
The Arizona Cardinals ranked 24th in passing yards allowed and 28th in passing touchdowns surrendered in 2022. That was before Arizona lost Byron Murphy and traded traded Isaiah Simmons in the offseason. Washington's offense should surge against the Cardinals, and Dotson is a sneak-great value play.
Fade: Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos: $6,600
For an extra $1,000, managers could target Denver Broncos receiver Jerry Jeudy instead of Dotson. They shouldn't.
Jeudy has been dealing with a hamstring injury and is unlikely to be at 100 percent on Sunday. Even if he's healthy, he's missed a substantial amount of the preseason
It's also unclear just how potent the Russell Wilson-led offense can be under new head coach Sean Payton. Payton is a brilliant offensive mind, but there's no guarantee that he can fix the lack of awareness, anticipation and deep touch that Wilson exhibited in 2022.
The Las Vegas Raiders weren't particularly good at defending the pass last season, but with a rebuilt secondary that now features Marcus Peters, jakorian Bennett and Marcus Epps, this isn't the can't-miss matchup that it might seem to be.
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Tight End
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Target: Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans: $3,800
Because of the position's price point, it's rarely worth chasing budget tight ends in DFS games. For managers looking to load up on stars like Christian McCaffrey and Justin Jefferson, however, it never hurts to save a few salary dollars wherever possible.
Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo is a viable starting option in a low price range. He's arguably the most experienced returning pass-catcher the Titans have and is coming off a 32-catch, 450-yard season.
The Saints represent a difficult matchup, and the Titans are still a run-heavy team. However, the New Orleans offense should be potent enough to create some semblance of a shootout. With Treylon Burks still working back from a knee injury, Ryan Tannehill should turn to Okonkwo early and often in the passing game.
Fade: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens: $6,200
Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews is almost always a safe DFS pick. On paper, he should be a great option against the lowly Houston Texans in Week 1.
However, Andrews simply isn't worth his high price point. He's been dealing with a quad injury, and while he's provided positive updates, there's no guarantee he'll be close to 100 percent on Sunday.
"It's been one of those things that's been a little tricky," Andrews said, per Ryan Mink of the team's official website.
With new receivers Odell Beckham Jr., Nelson Agholor and Zay Flowers in the mix, Lamar Jackson won't have to rely solely on Andrews in the passing game. He may well play, and he could perform well, but there's too much boom-or-bust potential to justify Andrews' price tag.
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