2024 NBA Free Agency Storylines You'll Hear About Constantly Next Season
The NBA will be back in preseason form in less than a month ahead of the 2023-24 campaign. Several of the league's top stars are heading into the final years of their contracts with much on the line before they hit free agency next July.
Some need big years to secure their next max contracts. Others may need the year to decide whether to continue playing basketball professionally.
And a decent number may never hit free agency at all, with rookie-scale extensions due before the start of the season and a June 30 deadline for the more seasoned veterans.
The following is a list—not necessarily in order—of the top potential free agents and our early read on the situation. Restricted free agents are saved until the end since they have limited power to leave their existing teams unilaterally.
LeBron Nearing Retirement?
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The NBA needs stars, and LeBron James has been arguably the league's biggest draw for two decades. As the resurgent Los Angeles Lakers were ousted from the Western Conference Finals by the Denver Nuggets, James publicly hinted that he may be near the end of his career, actively considering retirement.
Ultimately, he decided to continue at least through 2023-24, but will that reignite his passion for the game, or will he opt out of his final season with the team at $51.4 million?
That's a crazy amount of money to walk away from, but that may or may not be his motivating factor. James has long voiced that he'll play until his heart and head aren't in the game, and then he'll walk away. However, that was the first time he voiced that the time was nearing.
Previously, James had stressed that he intended to stay in the league long enough to play with his son, Bronny James. After a serious scare, the younger James is recovering well from a cardiac issue. Family could pull James away from the NBA; if so, he will already go down as one of the greatest players of all time.
Now, if James can win a second title with the Lakers and his fifth overall, he'll have an even stronger GOAT case. Would that push James to continue or walk away on top?
Can Harden Find a New Home?
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James Harden and the Philadelphia 76ers are heading for divorce. Whether that's a trade before the season, by the deadline or Harden just exiting in July as a free agent—it's coming.
The primary motivation for a trade, presumably, is to get to a franchise that will use Harden's Bird rights to give him a significant new contract. That would be best for Harden, removing the obstacle of finding a team with enough cap space to afford him next summer.
Will Harden even suit up for the Sixers? He may have no choice. At a minimum, he'll need to report to training camp. At 34, he's still one of the most dynamic point generators in the league.
But he also must do some damage control after forcing his way from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets to the 76ers and now to a mystery destination. How many franchises just aren't interested in the perceived drama?
However long Harden lasts in Philadelphia, he must show he's still a dominant offensive force. Showing up out of shape or sitting out games with "injury" may not get the job done in terms of attracting his next deal (especially if a team needs to give up substantial compensation to the 76ers in trade).
Side note: Tobias Harris may be one of the best bigger scoring wings available in free agency. He probably won't near his current $39.3 million, but he may get a solid new deal above the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (projected to be $13 million).
Kawhi, PG13 Stay Together?
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The LA Clippers' twosome can opt out after this season at $48.8 million apiece. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George would need to know they have money lined up to do so, be it with the Clippers (for one or both) or elsewhere entirely.
Clippers owner Steve Ballmer may not balk at the NBA's new punitive rules for heavy spenders as both are extension-eligible. The 76ers, with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, might have interest post-Harden (and Tobias Harris) in one of the two wings.
But like Harden, Leonard and George have some baggage to push through—neither seems capable of staying healthy for long periods. Or, more importantly, when it matters most during the postseason.
Leonard snubbed the Lakers and the chance to play with James, pushing the Clippers to trade for George (giving up future first-team All-NBA guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and significant draft compensation to the Oklahoma City Thunder).
The Clippers have been relevant, even getting to the Western Conference Finals in 2021, but the overarching theme of the Leonard/George team-up would be load management and injury.
A strong 2023-24 campaign, specifically a healthy one into June, could completely change that narrative. Leonard and George may need the Clippers from a budgetary perspective. Still, strong years could attract significant suitors in July (assuming Ballmer doesn't give them extensions before then).
Does Toronto Recommit to OG, Siakam?
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Like the Clippers, the Toronto Raptors are at a crossroads with OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. Anunoby can opt out of his $19.9 million for 2024-25 before July (an extension could start as high as $26.1 million). Siakam is in the final year of his deal but can extend for whatever the max will be next year (projected at $42.6 million).
But the Raptors were a .500 team last season and lost starting point guard Fred VanVleet to the Houston Rockets. If Scottie Barnes (22) is the future, does it make sense to reinvest in Siakam (29)? While Anunoby (26) is closer to a fit with Barnes, does he intend to stay beyond his current deal?
The Raptors can pay one, two or none, but the team shouldn't let their contracts expire without recompense like with VanVleet. Regardless, expect big years from both as they audition for new deals.
Can Derozan Score His Way to Another Big deal?
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The Chicago Bulls lost more games (42) than they won (40), but the team had to push through several injuries (most notably to Lonzo Ball).
At 34, DeMar DeRozan is still one of the league's most talented scorers. While he's not known for his three-point shooting, few players can score like he can in the midrange. DeRozan averaged 24.5 points a game last season and played 150 regular season games through two years in Chicago.
Perhaps the Bulls will issue an extension, but if not, DeRozan just needs to continue scoring as he has over his entire career. It would help if the team won more games to raise his stock even further, but Chicago's issues run deeper than any shortcomings DeRozan might have (roster composition, depth, health, etc.).
If not the Bulls, DeRozan will have suitors when the time comes.
Can warriors Keep Splash Brothers Together?
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That the Golden State Warriors paid Draymond Green this offseason may bode well for Klay Thompson, who is still one of the greatest shooters in the world.
He's not the same as before multiple injuries (knee, Achilles), but he's part of the Golden State's championship DNA. The question may be how much? What's the right price, given that the new rules target the high-spending Warriors specifically?
Thompson may not near his current $43.2 million, but the team may pay him near the $20 million mark to keep the group together. Steph Curry is under contract through 2025-26, so don't expect Thompson to get an extensive deal.
A bigger question for the Warriors will be Chris Paul, as the sure-fire hall-of-famer has a non-guaranteed $30 million due for 2024-25. That may be where Golden State saves money, though Paul has an opportunity to help the franchise get back to a title—which could change that computation significantly.
While a team retains a player's rights after an option isn't taken, the Warriors can only get out of Paul's salary via waiver (or trade). If the goal is to keep him at a lower price, all Golden State will have will be a minimum contract if they let him go (instead of paying $30 million).
Jrue the Key to Keeping giannis?
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The Milwaukee Bucks reinvested in Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez after firing Mike Budenholzer as head coach (hiring Adrian Griffin in his stead). The team has backslid in the postseason since its 2021 title. The bigger picture goal is to ensure Giannis Antetokounmpo wants to stay beyond his current contract (player option after the 2024-25 season).
Before then, point guard Jrue Holiday, 33, can opt out of his $39.4 million after the 2023-24 campaign. Keeping Holiday could be the key to Antetokounmpo's future in Milwaukee.
Holiday remains a tremendous player. Last year, he averaged 19.3 points a game with 7.4 assists and may still be the top defender at his position. Milwaukee won't have much flexibility. Like Middleton this summer, Holiday could opt out and re-sign on a longer deal at a lower price.
Ultimately, Antetokoumpo's fate may depend on how the team performs in the playoffs. To that end, keeping Holiday is likely the Bucks' priority.
Other Names to Watch: Bridges, Lowry, Dinwiddie, KCP, Monk and More
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Miles Bridges missed the entire 2022-23 campaign after a felony domestic violence incident that led to a 30-game suspension (20 of which have been served), as detailed by Sopan Deb of The New York Times.
Before the incident, Bridges was an essential part of the Hornets franchise. Now, it looks like his time in Charlotte is coming to an end. Unable to reach a longer deal, Bridges took the team's $7.9 million qualifying offer and will be an unrestricted free agent next summer.
Bridges may have too much damage to undo, but if he shows he can impact on the court, his past may be overlooked by a franchise in 2024.
Veterans Kyle Lowry, Spencer Dinwiddie, Tyus Jones and Mike Conley will be free agents. Russell Westbrook can opt out of his deal ($4 million) with the Clippers; D'Angelo Russell has an $18.7 million player option.
Jonas Valančiūnas, Nicolas Claxton and Isaiah Hartenstein are likely to be the most sought-after unrestricted big men.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a vital part of the Nuggets' championship run, can opt out of his $15.4 million. Should Caleb Martin build upon his strong year with Miami, he may earn more than his $7.1 million player option with the Heat. Gary Trent Jr. should command a solid contract.
Malik Monk is a bucket. Buddy Hield is probably the best available shooter (followed by Joe Harris). Royce O'Neale, Jarred Vanderbilt and Taurean Prince are proven wing defenders. Gordon Hayward, when healthy, is still a productive scorer.
Others include DeAnthony Melton, Markelle Fultz, Monte Morris, Alec Burks, Gary Payton II ($9.1 million player option), Mason Plumlee, Grayson Allen, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kyle Anderson, Gary Harris, Mo Bamba, Patrick Beverley, Eric Gordon (player option), Kelly Olynyk.
Meanwhile, Kelly Oubre is still looking for a contract for this season. His status for next July is very TBD.
RFAs: Paid Now? Later?
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If a team wants to keep a restricted free agent, they do. So far this offseason, only Matisse Thybulle and Paul Reed Jr. were able to solicit offer sheets, but the Portland Trail Blazers and 76ers chose to match, respectively.
Last season, the Indiana Pacers made an unsuccessful run at Phoenix Suns' center Deandre Ayton. The prior year, no offer sheets were made at all. The last successful poaching of a restricted free agent was by the Atlanta Hawks in 2020, prying Bogdan Bogdanović away from the Sacramento Kings.
But that was a decision the Kings made, to let Bogdanović go. Philadelphia may let Maxey hit restricted free agency to maximize its cap flexibility in 2024, but the franchise will likely match any offer. That threat alone is probably enough of a deterrent.
The deadline to extend former first-round picks like Jaden McDaniels, Immanuel Quickley, Onyeka Okongwu, Saddiq Bey, Devin Vassell, James Wiseman, Patrick Williams, Deni Avdija, Cole Anthony, Isaac Okoro, Precious Achuiwa, Obi Toppin, Josh Green, Maxey and others is before the start of the season next month. A second-rounder like Max Christie with the Lakers isn't extension-eligible but will be restricted next summer.
Some will move on next July, but only because their existing teams want to move on; none are actual flight risks as restricted free agents.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @EricPincus.
