2023 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Ideal Scenarios, Selections for 12-Team League
We're mere days away from the start of the 2023 NFL season. If your fantasy league has waited until now to conduct its draft, you're in luck.
With the preseason in the past, roster cuts complete and the offseason at its end, managers have more information than ever before with which to carry into fantasy drafts. The risk of unexpected pre-season injuries has also been diminished.
The challenge of navigating a successful draft still exists, though, and one misstep—especially an early one—can lead to a season of disappointment.
We're here to help with those early picks by diving into a two-round, 12-team, point-per-reception (PPR) mock draft and examining ideal scenarios for the early, middle and late stages of Round 1.
PPR Mock Draft
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Round 1
1. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
2. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
4. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
5. Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
6. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
7. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
8. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
9. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
10. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
11. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
12. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
Round 2
1. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
2. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
3. Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
4. Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
5. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
6. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
7. Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
8. Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
9. DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
10. Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
11. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
12. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Early First-Round Strategy
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There was a time, not so long ago, when snapping up a running back with an early first-round pick was common practice. As the league continued to scoot away from every-down backs, however, ball-dominant receivers have become the "safer" early first-round target.
If you've landed the No. 1 pick in your draft, Minnesota Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson is as safe a prospect as you can target. He's never missed time due to injury, he's always going to see a high volume of targets, and he consistently ranks among the league leaders in scrimmage yards.
Cincinnati Bengals wideout Ja'Marr Chase is a similar player, though he did miss time with a hip fracture in 2022. These two receivers, though, stand above the rest and should garner top consideration with the first and second selections.
Dual-threat running backs still hold value, though, which is why Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler should be in the early conversation. Los Angeles Rams wideout Cooper Kupp is there too, if you believe he can bounce back from last year's hamstring issues.
Kupp, it should be noted, recently suffered a "setback," according to head coach Sean McVay.
The strategy in the early first round is to nab the best possible player, regardless of overall draft strategy. A lot of picks will be made before you're back on the clock, so it doesn't make sense to, say, target a receiver only because you're hoping to double up on the position in the first two rounds. A positional run could throw that strategy right out the window.
Middle First-Round Strategy
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Picks No. 5-8 are where managers can begin thinking about their big-picture draft plans before making selections.
You're still looking for the best overall player in this range—standouts like Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Travis Kelce and rookie running back Bijan Robinson fit the bill—but you can and should also consider what you want to do in Round 2.
Before you enter any fantasy draft, it's smart to create a draft board that uses a tiered system. You can customize it to your personal views and values of players, but the general idea is to group players in terms of equal draft ranking.
A Tier-1 receiver group, for example, might consist of Jefferson, Chase and Kupp, with Hill, Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown and Garrett Wilson creating Tier 2.
This can be especially helpful when picking in the middle of the round. If, for example, all five of your Tier 2 receivers are still on the board with the sixth pick, it could make sense to draft a running back with the reasonable expectation that a Tier 2 receiver will still be there when you're back on the clock.
This is also a great spot in which to target Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. He's in a tier all by himself, and landing either a Tier 2 WR or RB in Round 2 is virtually guaranteed. Grab Kelce here, and you can take the best player available at any position in the second round.
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Late First-Round Strategy
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If you're picking in the bottom third of Round 1, you're personalized draft strategy should really come into play. Since there are few selections between your first and second picks, you should have a very good chance of landing two Tier 2 players in this range.
Players like St. Brown, Lamb, Brown, Robinson, Wilson, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard and Nick Chubb are all likely to go in this range. Managers should generally be happy with any two of them.
The variable is how you want to build the core of your roster. After making an early second-round pick, managers will be waiting a long time before they're back on the clock. The chances of landing a third Tier 2 player are extremely low, so it's really about personal taste and planning.
Do you view this year's fantasy pool as one heavy in running-back sleepers? Doubling up in receivers in the first two rounds could be the way to go. Do you value having two every-down backs more than a star receiver? You'd better grab RBs now, because few full-time starters will be available after the second round.
Regardless of your overall strategy, be sure to keep an eye on players like Hill and Kelce who may slide into the back end of Round 1. These are players with the potential to be league-winners, and if they're available, you can scoop up one and come back for a Tier 2 player in a couple of picks.
It's also important to pay attention to early positional runs. If eight pass-catchers are off the board within the first nine picks, you're typically going to find a lot more value in grabbing two RBs to start your draft. That trend will likely make running backs a popular second-round target.
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