Projecting Jalen Brunson, Knicks Stars' Ceilings and Floors for 2023-24 NBA Season
The New York Knicks took a sizable step forward during the 2022-23 NBA season.
However, they still seem a superstar short of crashing the contending ranks during the upcoming 2023-24 campaign.
They could solve that issue one of two ways. The first is the most obvious: pooling together their many trade chips and using them to acquire their missing superstar. The other is trickier, but perhaps most beneficial: having one of their star players make the jump from really good to great.
To assess how possible that elevation is, we'll set the ceiling for each of the Knicks' three brightest stars heading into this season. And to help ensure we don't over-indulge on offeseason optimism, we'll also lay their floors by examining what could go wrong.
RJ Barrett
1 of 3
Ceiling
Barrett's numbers in 2022-23 bore a striking similarity to his 2021-22 stats. To some, that might mean the No. 3 pick of the 2019 draft has plateaued. However, he only turned 23 this summer. To think he's incapable of future growth is preposterous.
It would really help if he could breathe life back into his outside shot, but considering he hit 40.1 percent from range on decent volume in 2020-21, why can't that happen? If defenses have to really respect him from range, that would open things up for more of his bully-ball drives to the basket and perhaps open more windows he can probe as a passer.
Floor
If he can't snap out of a two-year funk with his three-ball—a slide that has tanked his percentage from 40.1 to 31—he could really make life more difficult on himself and his teammates by squeezing the spacing. And if his bouts of tunnel vision worsen, he could wind up consistently driving into crowded spaces and torpedo his effectiveness.
His statistical volume seems stable enough, but if he misfires on a few more jumpers, earns less trips to the foul line and turns the ball over at a higher clip, the Knicks could be in trouble. A ton of potential star-trade packages prominently feature Barrett. If hope dims of him ever becoming a centerpiece, he won't have the pull to anchor those blockbuster moves.
Jalen Brunson
2 of 3
Ceiling
Maybe it's his age (27) or physical limitations (6'2", 190 lbs with less-than-elite explosion), but Brunson sort of feels awfully close to his full potential. And yet, he only has five seasons under his belt, and in three of them he operated primarily as a reserve. We may not have seen his best yet.
After spending this offseason with Team USA at the FIBA World Cup, his confidence could be at an all-time high. And if that ups his aggressiveness, his stats could climb even higher. He averaged 24 points and 6.2 assists this past season; get those numbers closer to 27 and 8, and he'd be a lock for the All-Star Game and maybe even a starter.
Floor
Everything about Brunson's 2022-23 breakout seems sustainable, so it's hard to tell where any regression would strike. Maybe he won't shoot 41.6 percent from three again, but his 38.6 career three-point percentage suggests his splash rate wouldn't fall far. If he takes on more touches, he might commit more turnovers, but that's never been a problem area in the past.
The worry with Brunson, then, might be more about plateauing than declining. While he has arguably cemented himself as a top-30 player, if he can't crack the top 20, then the Knicks aren't making any more noise than they did last season, when they were knocked out of the conference semis.
Julius Randle
3 of 3
Ceiling
Randle, who turns 29 in November, has possibly played his best basketball already. If he manages to mirror his 2020-21 season, that would put New York in a very good place.
That season, he paced the league in minutes (37.6), matched or exceeded his best in assists (6.0) and rebounds (10.2) and shot a career-high 41.1 percent from deep. If he's that accurate from thee again, that would buy this offense more breathing room and position Randle for his third All-NBA selection in four seasons.
Floor
Knicks fans know all too well about what can happen when things go awry for Randle. He becomes a bricklayer on offense and an inconsistent (at best) defender. There was perhaps no bigger factor in New York's slippage during the 2021-22 season than Randle's struggles, as his shooting slash dipped to an unsightly 41.1/30.8/75.6.
Because he plays such a substantial role in this offseason, his rough stretches are felt by the entire team. During that ill-fated 2021-22 campaign, the Knicks fared 9.5 points worse per 100 possessions with him than without, per Basketball-Reference. So, New York fans don't need to be told about Randle's floor; they've been dragged down by it before.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
