Fake NBA Contenders Failing the Eye Test
There are a number of NBA teams that are already deemed playoff or championship contenders by the latest sportsbook odds, although something doesn't feel quite right about a few of them.
These can be franchises with new-look rosters that don't pass the eye test right now, or ones that have better teams ranked below them.
The following five playoff contenders (deemed as teams ranked in the top-eight in each conference according to FanDuel betting odds) are simply projected too high.
Dallas Mavericks
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Current Projection: 6th-best in West
Finals Odds: 11th-best in NBA
Despite finishing 11th in the West last season at 38-44 overall, Dallas is somehow projected to jump five spots after only making some mild offseason improvements.
While we fully expect the Mavs to improve on their 5-11 record with Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, who's the third-best player on this roster? Tim Hardaway Jr.? Grant Williams? There's a huge talent drop-off once you get past the starting backcourt.
Dallas would need some massive leaps from Josh Green and Jaden Hardy as well as immediate contributions from rookies Dereck Lively II and Olivier-Maxence Prosper.
It even feels like a reach to place the Mavs above teams such as the Sacramento Kings, Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder, a spot where Dallas is currently ranked in betting odds.
It's fair to question Irving's availability as well, as the 31-year-old point guard has averaged just under 41 games played over the past four seasons. This roster is still short on ball-handlers (unless Dante Exum has a career resurgence) and gets dangerously thin if Irving has to miss time.
Dallas looks more like a team that will have to battle its way out of the play-in tournament instead of a playoff lock, especially in what could be a loaded Western Conference.
Golden State Warriors
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Current Projection: 3rd-best in West
Finals Odds: 6th-best in NBA
There's certainly a case to be made for Golden State to be better this season.
The Warriors were 5.9 points per 100 possessions worse with Jordan Poole on the floor last year, and the core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green was still elite together in non-Poole lineups (plus-14.0 net rating, 99th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass). The addition of Chris Paul could work if he buys into a backup point guard role.
Still, ranking the Warriors as the sixth-best team in the NBA is way too high, especially for an aging roster that only finished sixth in the West last season and is projected to have the fifth-hardest schedule in 2023-24.
Curry will turn 36 before the 2024 playoffs begin, with Paul celebrating birthday No. 39 in May. At some point, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody have to take on bigger roles to help keep the veterans' legs fresh, although there's no reason to think Steve Kerr believes in either that much yet.
Asking the Warriors to take road games seriously was a major issue as well last season, as they went just 11-30 away from the Chase Center.
The Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings should be ranked higher than the Warriors, with some other up-and-coming teams in the West possibly passing them as well.
Los Angeles Clippers
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Current Projection: 5th-best in West
Finals Odds: 10th-best in NBA
The Clippers limped into the No. 5 seed a year ago, a spot where they are again projected to land.
This seems generous for Los Angeles, a franchise that's in real danger of getting passed by with so many good, young teams in the West due to continued injury and now age concerns.
While Russell Westbrook played well in the postseason when both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George were hurt, the early results with them playing together were pretty uninspiring. The Clippers had a net rating of only plus-1.8 with all three on the floor and went just 11-10 overall in games that Westbrook, 34, played.
Leonard, 32, had yet another knee surgery in June to help clean up a torn meniscus suffered in the playoffs and has averaged just 40.3 games per season since coming to the Clippers in 2019.
The Clippers look like a play-in team on paper, especially if Leonard and 33-year-old George play their usual 50-ish games. Projecting them to finish above the Sacramento Kings and Memphis Grizzlies is a mistake, with the New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder possessing a real chance to jump L.A. as well.
Philadelphia 76ers
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Current Projection: 4th-best in East
Finals Odds: 8th-best in NBA
It's been a rough offseason thus far in Philly, even putting the James Harden situation aside for a moment.
The team lost Georges Niang, Shake Milton and Jalen McDaniels in free agency, with their most notable addition being 35-year-old Patrick Beverley coming off an uninspiring Chicago Bulls stint (5.8 points, 39.5 percent shooting in 22 games).
The Sixers could possibly withstand losing a bit of depth if not for the heavyweight battle between Harden and Daryl Morey right now, however.
There's obviously no trade market for Harden or a deal would have already gotten done. When the Los Angeles Clippers won't even give up 26-year-old Terance Mann (who averaged 8.8 points a game last season) in a package for Harden, why would a team the disgruntled guard doesn't want to go to make a better offer?
This likely ends with either Harden, who turns 34 on Saturday, not reporting to training camp or the Sixers taking pennies on the dollar for their star, something that's not in Morey's DNA.
For all this drama, projecting the Sixers to still get homecourt advantage in the East playoffs is a reach, especially with teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks only getting better.
This isn't a title contender, at least not until the Harden situation gets resolved.
Toronto Raptors
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Current Projection: Tied 8th-best in East
Finals Odds: Tied 19th-best in NBA
No one is making a case for the Raptors to win the 2024 NBA title, although FanDuel still projects them as a playoff team in the East.
Toronto finished 10th a season ago at 41-41 overall yet suffered a massive loss when Fred VanVleet chose to sign with the Houston Rockets. While the Raptors had a solid net rating of plus-3.6 with the 29-year-old on the floor last season (75th percentile), this number fell to minus-2.4 (36th percentile) when the veteran point guard sat.
Dennis Schröder was signed as his replacement, although the journeyman floor general isn't nearly as good and has posted a negative swing rating in three of his last four stops. He isn't a good three-point shooter either (32.9 percent last year, 33.7 percent in his career), an area Toronto desperately needed help in (28th in both three-point makes and percentage last season).
There's a lot of good individual players on this roster, although nothing from last season suggests the Raptors truly function as a team.
New head coach Darko Rajaković has never led an NBA team before and is currently part of a pending lawsuit, with the New York Knicks suing a former team employee for allegedly stealing proprietary information from the franchise and bringing it to his new job with the Raptors.
Toronto looks worse than last year when it missed the playoffs. Teams like the Brooklyn Nets, Indiana Pacers, Chicago Bulls and possibly even Orlando Magic could all be better than the Raptors this season.
