UFC 292 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for Sterling vs. O'Malley
UFC 292 will either see the ascension of Sean O'Malley as a UFC star reach new heights or Aljamain Sterling continue his impressive reign over the bantamweight division.
The bantamweight title fight features one of the more entertaining strikers in the UFC today against a wizard of submissions in Sterling. It's the kind of intriguing matchup that makes MMA so fun with the highest of stakes.
The co-main event has the potential to be a fan-friendly affair. Zhang Weili will look to defender her women's strawweight belt against Amanda Lemos.
The rest of the card is littered with interesting fights and big names. Marlon "Chito" Vera kicks things off against Pedro Munhoz. Chris Weidman headlines the prelims.
Here's a look at the complete schedule with odds and a closer look at the featured bouts.
Fight Card, Schedule and Odds
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Main Card (ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET)
Aljamain Sterling (-270) vs. Sean O'Malley (+220)
Zhang Weili (-310) vs. Amanda Lemos (+250)
Ian Machado Garry (-485) vs. Neil Magny (+370)
Da'Mon Blackshear (+180) vs. Mario Bautista (-218)
Marlon Vera (-185) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+154)
Prelims (ESPN2/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET)
Chris Weidman (+210) vs. Brad Tavares (-258)
Gregory Rodrigues (-355) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+280)
Austin Hubbard (-170) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+142)
Brad Katona (-155) vs. Cody Gibson (+130)
Early Prelims (ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET)
Andre Petroski (-230) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+190)
Andrea Lee (+260) vs. Natalia Silva (-325)
Karine Silva (-155) vs. Maryna Moroz (+130)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Sterling vs. O'Malley
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We're about to find out how sweet the Suga show can be. Sean O'Malley is a lot of flash. His social media presence and skills on a mic have gone a long way in making him a recognizable name in the sport.
His split decision win over Petr Yan was the first step toward proving that he really has the skills to back it up.
Ever since O'Malley suffered his first loss to Marlon Vera in 2020 the organization has been brining him along slowly. His win over the former champion represented a serious step up in competition.
Sterling is a different test, though. Yan is a striker by nature with good wrestling if he needs it. The Funkmaster lives for the ground game and has developed enough striking to compliment his wrestling and submissions.
This one is going to come down to whether O'Malley can keep this fight at distance and stay off the ground. It's something he might have some success with, but it's hard to envision him completely shutting down Sterling's wrestling.
O'Malley hasn't fought many grapplers but he was taken down by Thomas Almeida back in their 2021 fight. That doesn't bode well.
Prediction: Sterling via fourth-round submission
Zhang vs. Lemos
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Outside of Rose Namajunas, not many women have had a lot of success in fighting Zhang Weili. Magnum has run roughshod over everyone in the division and only lost her belt when Namajunas shocked her with a head kick knockout.
She followed it up with a split decision win to prove she is the Zhang's kryptonite.
One-sided wins over Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Carla Esparza have re-established Zhang as the top fighter in the division. Lemos is a newcomer to the title fight scene. The Brazilian has gone 7-1 since 2019 with five of those wins coming by submission or knockout.
She is one of the most athletically gifted fighters in the division and has the power to change the fight with one strike.
Given Zhang's losses to Namajunas, that power could be a difference maker. However, Zhang is still the better overall fighter. Her wrestling should negate any physical advantages that Lemos might have.
The opening round will be the most interesting. Lemos is a good starter and should come out aggressively. If Zhang can negate that early start and get the fight to the later rounds she should be able to take over.
Prediction: Zhang via decision
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Machado Garry vs. Magny
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Ian Machado Garry is a fast-rising prospect in the UFC. Neil Magny has become one of the most persistent gatekeepers in the welterweight division.
It's one of those matchups that just makes sense for both men. Magny was actually a late replacement for Geoff Neal who was originally supposed to fight Machado Garry, but Magny actually beat Neal in 2021 so this is an even better matchup.
Magny is 3-2 over his last five fights. Two of the wins have come by split decision in close fights against Max Griffin and Pilip Rowe. His lone dominant performance in that stretch was a submission win against Daniel Rodriguez.
The losses came against much better competition with Gilbert Burns and Shavkat Rakhmonov both submitting him.
Machado Garry hasn't proven he's on the level of either of those guys yet, but his striking is legit. He's won each of his last two fights by knockout, including a first-round TKO win over Rodriguez.
The point is that both fighters are on opposite trajectories. Machado Garry is ascending and continues to improve while Magny seems to have hit his ceiling. That should be obvious in the results.
Prediction: Machado Garry via second-round TKO
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