NFL Backfields Shaping Up to Be 2023 Fantasy Football Nightmares
The devaluation of running backs has been a hot topic in the NFL this offseason, but the position still carries a lot of weight in the fantasy world. High-volume backs like Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley are still worth a first-round selection.
The problem is that as the NFL moves away from every-down ball-carriers, we're seeing the fantasy landscape clouded more and more by committees. Only eight running backs topped 300 touches in 2022, and one of them, Dalvin Cook, remains unemployed.
Not every committee backfield should be avoided, of course. Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers topped 1,500 scrimmage yards while teammate AJ Dillon reached 975—and both backs scored seven touchdowns.
Jones should be targeted ahead of Dillon in fantasy, but both backs can find homes in starting lineups.
Issues arise when roles are less defined, when situations are less unclear or when the lead back frequently changes from week to week. These committees could generate headaches on draft day and lineup nightmares during the season.
*Numbers in parentheses indicate FantasyPros PPR ADP at time of writing.
Atlanta Falcons
1 of 7
Bijan Robinson (RB4), Tyler Allgeier (RB48), Cordarrelle Patterson (RB53)
Atlanta Falcons rookie running back Bijan Robinson is being targeted early in drafts, and for good reason. He was a tremendous dual-threat at Texas, is coming off an 1,894-scrimmage-yard season and is being pushed to be even more versatile at the next level.
"We want to continue to challenge him to see—can he push himself past a threshold of even what he thinks he's capable of to see what we can unlock in him," running backs coach Michael Pitre said, per Amna Subhan of the team's official website.
This doesn't mean that Robinson won't have the occasionally disappointing week, though, and it further clouds the picture for Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson.
Allgeier was a 1,000-yard rusher as a rookie in 2022, while Patterson had 817 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns.
The unknown is how Atlanta will utilize its three-deep rotation and if offensive coordinator Dave Ragone will ride the hot hand in certain games. Add in the fact that Atlanta now has a pretty impressive receiving corps, and there could be games in which at least one of its top backs spends most of it on the sideline.
Robinson is still worth targeting early because of his runner/receiver upside, but managers drafting Allgeier or Patterson as anything other than a handcuff are really rolling the dice.
Baltimore Ravens
2 of 7
J.K. Dobbins (RB24), Gus Edwards (RB58), Justice Hill (RB96), Melvin Gordon III (RB95)
Not too long ago, I pegged Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins as a potential breakout star in 2023. The receiver additions of Odell Beckham Jr., Nelson Agholor and Zay Flowers should help open up Baltimore's ground game, and Dobbins (5.9 yards per carry career average) has flashed potential in the past.
However, Dobbins' absence from training camp adds a lot of uncertainty to the situation. He missed the entire 2021 season with a torn ACL and suffered another knee injury partway through 2022. He opened camp on the physically unable to perform with another knee issue list and appears to be angling for a new contract.
NFL Media's Ian Rapoport told The Pat McAfee Show that it "seems like the kind of injury that would be probably okay if he ended up with a contract extension."
If Dobbins isn't at 100 percent or fully prepared to open the season, the Ravens may take a full committee approach with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill also seeing playing time. We saw some of that in 2022, and none of the aforementioned three recorded more than 17 carries in a single game. Melvin Gordon III is now in the mix as well.
With Lamar Jackson also logging carries, there could be weeks where even the top-ranked Dobbins disappoints in Baltimore's backfield. Have fun spotting those weeks beforehand.
Chicago Bears
3 of 7
Khalil Herbert (RB37), D'Onta Foreman (RB49), Roschon Johnson (N/A)
With David Montgomery gone, third-year back Khalil Herbert appears poised to emerge as a star for the Chicago Bears. He was more explosive than Montgomery last season (5.7 yards per carry versus 4.0) and reminded fans of his explosiveness on Saturday.
In Chicago's preseason opener against the Tennessee Titans, Herbert ripped off a 52-yard catch-and-run touchdown.
However, Herbert taking an every-down role appears unlikely because Chicago added D'Onta Foreman in free agency. Foreman was a nine-game starter for the Carolina Panthers last season and took over the lead role following the McCaffrey trade. He finished with 914 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns.
The good news is that Herbert and Foreman should have clear roles this season. Foreman (23 career receptions) has never been a heavy receiving back and will likely be used more in running situations. Herbert should have more PPR upside.
The bad news is that predicting a snap split for the two is difficult at best. Chicago didn't give Foreman a one-year, $2 million deal to simply have him ride the pine. The presence of rookie fourth-round pick Roschon Johnson further complicates the playing-percentage picture.
The Bears may end up using a true committee in which all three backs have the occasional big game. However, managers are going to find themselves wishing for more consistency from Chicago's running backs during the fantasy season.
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Las Vegas Raiders
4 of 7
Josh Jacobs (RB8), Zamir White (RB65), Ameer Abdullah (N/A), Brandon Bolden (N/A), Damien Williams (N/A), Brittain Brown (N/A)
Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs led the NFL in both rushing yards (1,653) and scrimmage yards (2,053) while scoring 12 touchdowns in 2022. Under normal circumstances, drafting him would be a dream instead of a nightmare.
Unfortunately, Jacobs hasn't experienced normal circumstances this offseason. He was given the franchise tag, was unhappy about not receiving a long-term deal and remains away from the team.
While Jacobs wouldn't really benefit from holding out in the regular season, it could happen.
Managers taking a chance on Jacobs will be wise to have a Las Vegas backup plan. Who is the best option for that plan? It's impossible to truly know.
Second-year back Zamir White, who got the preseason start on Sunday, would seem like a logical candidate. However, Las Vegas has myriad backs, including Ameer Abdullah, Brandon Bolden, Brittain Brown and the recently-added Damien Williams.
Training camp has offered virtually no clarity.
"The backs are all going to get opportunities in training camp," head coach Josh McDaniels said, per ESPN's Paul Gutierrez. "This is our opportunity to try to get them all a foundation in our system and see what they can do
McDaniels frequently used a committee approach as the New England Patriots' offensive coordinator and he'll likely do the same if Jacobs isn't available. Predicting who would lead that committee, at this point, is pure guesswork.
Miami Dolphins
5 of 7
De'Von Achane (RB41), Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB46), Raheem Mostert (RB47)
The Miami Dolphins' backfield might be the toughest to figure out ahead of the 2023 season.
Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. were Miami's top two backs a year ago, which was unsurprising since both played under head coach Mike McDaniel with the San Francisco 49ers. Mostert led the team with 891 rushing yards and 212 touches, but he wasn't truly the lead back after Wilson was added midseason.
Following Wilson's acquisition in early November, Mostert didn't record more than 18 touches in a game. Wilson's season high with the Dolphins was a 19-touch outing in Week 10, and both backs had at least one game with fewer than 10 touches.
Miami also drafted De'Von Achane in the third round of April's draft, and he figures to be a factor, particularly in the passing game. He averaged just 2.5 yards per carry in his preseason debut but caught four passes for 41 yards.
All three of the Dolphins' top backs have starting flex potential heading into 2023, but there are going to be games where at least one of them disappears from the offensive game plan. Trying to predict who's worth starting each week—especially in a Dolphins offense that ranked 31st in rushing attempts a year ago—could quickly become an exercise in futility.
New Orleans Saints
6 of 7
Alvin Kamara (RB20), Jamaal Williams (RB33), Kendre Miller (RB45)
Dual-threat running back Alvin Kamara has long been a fantasy superstar, but that is likely to change in 2023.
Kamara has been suspended for the first three games of the season for violation of the league's personal conduct policy. The ruling came after he plead no contest to a misdemeanor charge of breach of peace in relation to a 2022 fight in Las Vegas.
We're also unlikely to see Kamara take on the every-down role upon his return. New Orleans added Jamaal Williams, who led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns last season, in free agency. Kamara should still have some good PPR upside, but Williams is going to handle a lot of the ground work.
The offensive game plan will determine which back is more productive each week. If the Saints are playing with the lead, Williams could have a big day. If they're leaning on Derek Carr and the passing game, Kamara might have a vintage performance.
Trying to predict how games will unfold beforehand is a nightmare that many managers will want to avoid—and that's without factoring in the role of rookie third-round pick Kendre Miller.
The TCU product suffered a knee sprain in the preseason opener, according to Fox Sports' Greg Auman, but could easily become a major contributor by midseason. That could make it practically impossible to rely on Kamara or Williams during the playoff push.
Philadelphia Eagles
7 of 7
D'Andre Swift (RB27), Rashaad Penny (RB40), Kenneth Gainwell (RB61), Boston Scott (RB68)
Presumably, D'Andre Swift will lead the Philadelphia Eagles' committee backfield in 2023. Philly acquired Swift from the Detroit Lions over draft weekend, and the capable dual-threat has the skills to replace Miles Sanders in the RB1 role.
The problem is that Philly is likely to utilize a true committee, as it did down the stretch in 2022 and during the postseason.
While Sanders had Pro Bowl numbers last season, he recorded 12 or fewer touches in three of his final five regular-season games. He didn't have more than 17 touches in a single playoff contest, while backup Kenneth Gainwell (40 touches) out-paced him (38) in the playoffs.
No. 3 back Boston Scott chipped in 16 touches during the playoffs.
Further complicating matters is the presence of oft-injured-but-occasionally-explosive former Seattle Seahawks back Rashaad Penny. While Penny has had trouble staying on the field, he showed how special he can be during the 2021 season, when he recorded 671 rushing yards over his final six games.
Sanders led the Eagles with 279 touches in 2022, but Gainwell and Scott chipped in a combined 135 touches. It's unclear whether Swift—who has never played a full season—can even replicate Sanders' workload, and with Penny in the mix, the Eagles may not ask him to.
The reality is that with Jalen Hurts doing plenty in the ground game, there might not be an Eagles back who can be truly reliable from week to week.
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