Way-Too-Soon 2024 All-Rookie Team Predictions
Members of the 2023 NBA draft class are just weeks into their professional tenures. Naturally, then, we're long overdue for some perfectly timed, not-at-all-way-too-early 2023-24 All-Rookie predictions.
This mission will be carried out by Bleacher Report NBA staff scribes Dan Favale and Grant Hughes. The criteria we will consider is pretty straightforward.
Everyone entering what will be their rookie year is eligible for inclusion—including 2022 draftee Chet Holmgren, who missed all of last season with a foot injury.
Positions, thankfully, don't matter when doling out these 10 All-Rookie spots. This crystal ball-gazing session should not be interpreted as a forecast of entire careers. We're simply trying to suss out who will be the 10 most impactful newbies of the 2023-24 campaign alone.
First Team: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
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Let's not bother to place limits on what Victor Wembanyama might be, immediately or down the line, for the San Antonio Spurs. His two Summer League appearances offered separate glimpses of him at his worst and at his best yet somehow underscored the same thing:
Wembanyama, as both concept and player, doesn't make any damn sense.
The ease with which he can get to his jumper, from anywhere, bodes well for his overall offensive creation. The passing is still more reactive than planned, but he doesn't need to manipulate with Scoot Henderson-level foresight to elevate his teammates. His slight frame may cause issues versus certain defenders, but he moves so surgically off the ball and utilizes angles we didn't know existed on face-ups and post touches that it shouldn't ever matter.
Wemby might also come in and just be one of the NBA's most terrifying off-ball defenders from Day 1. His presence around the rim is ubiquitous, and he's already shown a knack for shooting unimaginable gaps and erasing jumpers.
This isn't just someone who should be a lock for First Team All Rookie. This is across-the-spectrum transcendence, still unpolished but also NBA-ready, bottled into a singular, incomprehensible force.
—Favale
First Team: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Wembanyama may have forever warped our conceptions about what's possible for a big man to do on the floor, but let's not forget that many of the same terms—generational, mold-breaking, revolutionary—applied to Chet Holmgren in last year's draft class.
Recovered from the foot injury that cost him all of 2022-23, the 7-footer will enter his *rookie* season with the advantage of having gone through a full year as a professional—minus the actual games.
That's not to say he needs an advantage to grade out as one of 2023-24's top five first-year players. He's got more than enough game to earn a spot regardless. The Oklahoma City Thunder center has elite mobility and timing for his size and should wind up extremely high on the blocks-per-game leaderboard. Whatever happens on the other end, Holmgren is going to be a major difference-maker on D.
Of course, when you watch clips that showcase his ridiculous combination of ball-handling, footwork and physicality like this, it's hard to imagine any kind of a struggle offensively.
Let's conservatively estimate his "if healthy" stat line to include 16.0 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game with a three-point hit rate somewhere around 36.0 percent. Anything close to those numbers should keep Holmgren in the Rookie of the Year conversation for most of the season, and there's probably not a better dark horse pick for that honor.
Lastly, the Thunder are primed for a rapid ascent up the standings, and that'll put a brighter spotlight on Holmgren's game. That recognition is going to juice his case for awards—not that he'll need it.
—Hughes
First Team: Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers
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It's irresponsible to form an opinion about a player based on his performance across a handful of summer league games, which means it's almost criminally reckless to judge Scoot Henderson on a mere 21 minutes of action in a single July contest.
Screw it, we're doing it anyway.
Henderson exhibited undeniable athleticism, control and processing speed before a shoulder injury knocked him out of his first summer league game, racking up 15 points, six assists, five rebounds and an uninterrupted stretch of "this guy gets it" play.
Whatever doubt remained about his place among the top point-guard prospects of the last several years disappeared after a few minutes in Vegas; Scoot looked as promising as any of them. Elements of Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Ja Morant and any other highly touted ball-handler you can think of appeared in Henderson's game.
Talent will meet opportunity this season, as Henderson projects to take over complete control of the Portland Trail Blazers once Damian Lillard is officially traded.
Wembanyama is as hyped as any prospect in memory, but Scoot should have roughly even odds for Rookie of the Year. He's going to be that good.
—Hughes
First Team: Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
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It's fair to criticize the Charlotte Hornets for choosing Brandon Miller and his purported lack of superstar upside over Henderson. But the Alabama product also comes with a broad skill set and positional size that every team covets. A high ceiling is ideal, but a high floor is a close second.
Miller definitely has the latter.
Uneven work in summer league shouldn't obscure the fact that Miller can handle the ball at 6'9" and shot 38.4 percent from long range in college. The Paul George comparisons aren't perfect because Miller doesn't quite have the same level of athletic pop, but they're otherwise on the money.
Miller may find himself behind Gordon Hayward and Miles Bridges in Charlotte's forward rotation, but he's going to get plenty of playing time—enough to feast as a catch-and-shoot threat on feeds from LaMelo Ball and maybe even run a few pick-and-rolls himself in certain configurations. And if he winds up higher in the pecking order due to injuries or minutes-clearing trades, bigger numbers will surely follow.
Plus, the extra offensive spacing he'll encounter in the NBA could help Miller improve his scoring efficiency inside the arc. If a few things break right, it wouldn't be a shock to see him post over 15.0 points per game.
If that sounds modest, note that only three members of the 2022 rookie class managed a scoring average that high.
—Hughes
First Team: Taylor Hendricks
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This one's a little ambitious now that the Utah Jazz have both John Collins and Lauri Markkanen on the roster. But Markkanen has manned the 3 in bunches the past two seasons, and Hendricks has the rim protection instincts to slide up to the 5 when Walker Kessler catches a breather. The 19-year-old will play enough to captivate voters.
And captivate, he will.
A right hamstring strain has prevented Hendricks from taking the court at Summer League, but we don't need a smattering of exhibitions to know everything he does will translate. What he lacks in ball skills and playmaking on offense he offsets—and then some—with plug-and-play touch on the move and standstill spacing. He drilled over 39 percent of his triples at UCF on more than 4.5 attempts per game.
Frontlines featuring him and Kessler will stymie rival offenses at the other end. Hendricks is a terrific helper around the basket and has the side-to-side amble to step out and guard from the perimeter, inviting Utah to use him in every possible 4-5 combination right from the jump.
—Favale
Second Team: Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons
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This is true of many players who grade out in the A-plus range of NBA athleticism, but Ausar Thompson may only be a decent three-point shot away from superstardom.
A shrewd decision-maker who already sees profitable passing angles in traffic, Thompson has the handle to get to his spots and the size to pass around or over the top of a collapsing defense. He's not a pure point guard, but his ability to pick out open teammates while in the process of blowing past defenders will make him a hugely valuable facilitator.
Jaden Ivey and Cade Cunningham will handle most of the playmaking for the Detroit Pistons, which could prevent Thompson from showing the full breadth of his skills. But even if his biggest contributions come as a shutdown defender or a devastating transition attacker, he's going to make an impact.
And if that perimeter shot comes around to the point where defenders have to honor him 25 feet from the bucket, keeping Thompson off our first-team projections is going to be a mistake.
—Hughes
Second Team: Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
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Amen Thompson is a worthwhile First Team pick if you want to quibble over his Second Team placement. Smart people whom I trust consider him a better long-term bet than No. 3 pick Brandon Miller, mostly due to an unflappable belief in his playmaking and ability to create separation on the ball.
Still, this is more of a short-term exercise. Selecting Thompson, at all, is risky.
Rookie point guards face an inherently steep learning curve, and his is complicated by questions about his off-ball impact. How will he fare when displaced from quarterbacking the offense by Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green and, perhaps, Kevin Porter Jr.?
Optimism prevails here. Someone like FVV can play off the ball as well and should streamline Thompson's fit and production, and the Houston Rockets have assembled just enough overall half-court spacing to give him the necessary room to breathe on-ball.
Assuming Thompson's elite length and athleticism culminate in any semblance of defensive disruption, his first year should rank among the 10 best.
—Favale
Second Team: Gradey Dick, Toronto Raptors
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Pascal Siakam trade rumors reinforce just how disorganized and precarious the future of the Toronto Raptors has become. Offering predictions tied to their fate, of any kind, is more than a bit dicey.
Gradey Dick's immediate importance, though, stands the test of Toronto's existential ambiguity. They need functional shooting, a lot of it, whether they're trying to compete for a playoff spot or rejiggering the roster and direction around OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes.
It just so happens functional shooting is Dick's specialty. His off-the-dribble game may stunt amid the Raptors' clumpy spacing, but he needs neither ample time nor space to launch jumpers off the catch. That he can score off screens, in constant motion, or from a standstill only boosts his Day 1 appeal.
Opportunity will be part of Dick's case. He can't influence the offense or put up attention-grabbing numbers if he's not logging sufficient minutes. That shouldn't be a problem, even if Toronto doesn't pivot to a bigger-picture timeline. Dick's defense is a possible wart, but he has the size for the Raptors to stash him up and down the positional spectrum, and he might instantly become a borderline asset as the helper.
—Favale
Second Team: Kris Murray, Portland Trail Blazers
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Kris Murray's three years of college experience would have made a lot more sense on a Blazers team trying to win in the short term around Damian Lillard, but the combo forward is still going to perform well as Portland moves into a younger, post-Dame era.
Like his brother Keegan did for the Sacramento Kings last season, Murray will bring stellar feel, timely cuts and reliable spot-up three-point shooting to the Blazers. He might already be a better and more physical defender than his twin. It remains to be seen if the lefty has enough ball-handling craft to punish opponents who close out too aggressively, but Murray will at least be able to fake his shot, take a dribble and figure out where the ball should go as the defense scrambles.
It'd be better for his development (and All-Rookie chances) if Murray weren't slotted behind a newly paid Jerami Grant, but maybe playing time will open up if Portland moves its $160 million man at the trade deadline. Either way, Murray's experience and high basketball IQ suggest he'll find ways to contribute on both ends.
Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons make up Portland's next-generation core and should account for the bulk of the on-ball reps. But Murray can play off all of the Blazers' young guards and should have no shortage of clean looks on the catch.
Generally speaking, it's a good idea to bet on the success of smart, two-way combo forwards.
—Hughes
Second Team: Bilal Coulibaly, Washington Wizards
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Agency won't be hard to come by for the soon-to-be 19-year-old Bilal Coulibaly. The freshly torn-down Washington Wizards will give him the latitude to experiment and, most importantly, fail.
And yet, don't be so certain the faults and foibles outshine or outnumber his strengths and successes. Coulibaly's offensive game screams unrefined, especially when it comes to his jumper. Given the opportunity, though, he can get to his pull-up going downhill and even bust out a step-back:
Efficiency could dog him in Year 1. It might also be propped up by his capacity to terrorize scrambling defenses or knife through space in transition.
Loads of people have stated, ad nauseam, that he has the tools to thrive on defense. What, exactly, do they mean?
This:
And this:
Projecting rookie seasons is an exercise in the unknown. With so much uncertainty ingrained into the process, our most favorable out-of-the-gate projections naturally gravitate toward newbies considered more proven or polished and away from those portrayed as incomplete or raw.
Purchasing Bilal Coulibaly stock runs counter to that logic—in the best possible way.
—Favale
Full 2023-24 NBA All-Rookie Predictions
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First Team
Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers.
Taylor Hendricks, Utah Jazz
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Second Team
Bilal Coulibaly, Washington Wizards
Gradey Dick, Toronto Raptors
Kris Murray, Portland Trail Blazers
Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons
