Biggest Wild-Card Teams in the 2023 College Football Season

Any prediction is an educated guess, but the best college football teams are rarely a surprise.

Yes, for example, we watched TCU ascend in a shocking way last season. But the rest of the College Football Playoff field—Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State—fell somewhere in the neighborhood of expected to logical.

The same sentiment applies to conference title races, as well. Most leagues have a favorite and a couple of second-tier contenders, and one of them often brings home a championship trophy.

But some of those programs are just uncomfortable to trust.

That's the focus of our wild-card teams, a group that has the range of contending for at least a conference title yet, seemingly, has the floor of falling off the national radar.

North Carolina Tar Heels

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Drake Maye

When you have an elite quarterback, who knows what might happen? TCU showed that upside with Max Duggan.

Now, unlike Duggan in 2022, Drake Maye is a known high-end player entering the campaign. Not only is he considered a top 2024 NFL draft prospect, but he also totaled 5,019 yards and 45 touchdowns last season.

Along the way to that production, the 20-year-old propelled North Carolina to a 9-1 record. But the Tar Heels also stumbled down the stretch, dropping the last four games—including three by a combined eight points.

What's the story for 2023, then? Should we put more stake in the early winning run or the late-season skid?

North Carolina doesn't have a particularly difficult slate on paper, considering Clemson may be the only opponent that is ranked in the preseason. But an opening stretch of South Carolina, Appalachian State, Minnesota and Pitt is full of not-elite-but-competitive landmines.

While the Heels will likely have a QB edge in every contest, Maye certainly needs a little help to navigate the whole year.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

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Tyler Shough

Converse to UNC's story in 2022, Texas Tech meandered to 4-5 start before closing the campaign with four straight wins.

Optimism is high in Lubbock because that streak tied a nice bow on Joey McGuire's debut season. Since the Red Raiders climbed to 8-5 in his first year and return much of the offense—and, in particular, quarterback Tyler Shough—could they accomplish even more in 2023?

In theory, sure. Most of Tech's toughest games, namely Oregon, Kansas State and TCU, are at home, too.

The problem is the Red Raiders have a long history of some mediocre (or straight-up bad) defenses. They ranked 13th nationally in red-zone touchdown rate allowed last year, which is great. But only seven defenses ceded more red-zone opportunities, which is decidedly not great.

Texas Tech's ceiling is that of a second-tier Big 12 contender, yet its floor is not even making a bowl game.

Oregon State Beavers

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Jonathan Smith

Oregon State fits a comparable mold to Texas Tech.

At the Beavers' best, they're still probably not finishing the season atop the Pac-12 standings. But there's a feasible route to sneaking into the conference title game, if their quarterback play improves as hoped.

Although the offense finished a respectable 33rd in yards per attempt last season, OSU ranked 105th in passing yards per game. Plus, the team's two starters—Chance Nolan and Ben Gulbranson—combined to toss 16 touchdowns compared to 13 interceptions.

That weakness is why Oregon State brought in Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei, whose profile in 2022 was basically the exact opposite. He tossed 22 scores to seven picks but mustered just 6.8 yards per throw.

How do you like that juxtaposition?

Provided Utah quarterback Cam Rising is recovered from his ACL injury in time for the 2023 season, Oregon State is the least predictable upper-tier team of a strong Pac-12.

Oklahoma Sooners

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Dillon Gabriel

If you've followed the sport during the last half-decade or so, seeing Oklahoma here makes a whole lot of sense.

Prior to 2022, the Sooners had dominated the Big 12. Despite a six-year conference title streak ceasing in 2021, the team finished 11-2. It's not like OU plummeted from contention. But after that regular season ended, head coach Lincoln Riley left Norman for USC.

In came Brent Venables, and a painful 6-7 year followed.

Mostly, the defense imploded. The unit ranked 82nd in yards allowed per snap and 99th in points allowed per game.

The bright side is the offense is in good hands with quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Plus, given that Venables has a strong reputation, the assumption is the defense won't be so horrid again. Perhaps you know the popular metaphor about assuming, though.

Between its own needed improvement and its Big 12 counterparts getting one final shot at OU, the Sooners have a thin margin for error in 2023.

Ole Miss Rebels

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Lane Kiffin

On the fun-to-watch meter, Ole Miss is elite. Lane Kiffin has built an energetic, aggressive offense, and he's not afraid to take chances on fourth down and/or in the red zone.

The high-risk, high-reward philosophy took the Rebels to 7-0 before a trudge to 8-5 last season.

Personally, I hope Kiffin does not change much. Ole Miss will not be the most talented team in several SEC games, so a bit of bravery will be necessary to spring a few upsets. After all, the Rebels have each of Alabama, LSU and Georgia on the docket this season.

The downside is that boldness might get Ole Miss into trouble opposite teams like Tulane, Auburn and Mississippi State.

Combine those factors with the current QB dilemma between Jaxson Dart, Spencer Sanders and potentially Walker Howard, and the Rebels seem rather volatile.

Florida State Seminoles

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Jordan Travis

Thanks to their own returning players and a wave of incoming transfers, Florida State is perhaps the breakout team of 2023.

Well, you know, here in the preseason.

Matching that billing will be another story, especially since the 'Noles begin the campaign against LSU with a trip to ACC power Clemson just three weeks later. Two losses over the first four weekends of the season would put a large dent in their championship hopes.

Additionally, the Seminoles must handle being a targeted team. After missing a bowl for two years, they entered 2022 with minimal expectations. The surge to 10-3 means FSU is now viewed as a high-quality win.

Entering the season, talent is not a concern in Tallahassee. The schedule, while not painless, is reasonably favorable.

But those statements are easy to write on technological paper; Florida State's ability to manage those expectations may be the difference between making a run at a trophy and a wasted year.