5 Trade Ideas to Get Slumping Dodgers Back atop the NL West
The Los Angeles Dodgers lived the ultimate charmed life in 2022, spending 170 of 181 days in first place en route to a historic 111-win season.
Cut to now, and the 2023 team would barely make the playoffs if the season ended today.
At 44-34, the Dodgers are in third place in the National League West and clinging to the league's third wild-card spot. Losses in 19 out of 36 games have only driven home the point that they must find outside help before the Aug. 1 trade deadline.
Their biggest need? Arms for a injury-laden pitching staff whose ERA is nearly two runs higher than it was last season.
"In spring training, I did not expect that in July we would aggressively be looking for pitching. With the injuries and where we are, I think that focus has shifted," president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic on June 19. "There's no question that [targeting pitching] is more likely than it was in March."
Like we did with the New York Yankees last week, let's go shopping on the Dodgers' behalf.
What Do the Dodgers Need?
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Especially with ace left-hander Julio Urías nearing his return from a hamstring strain, it's worth clarifying that starting pitching isn't the only area of need at Chavez Ravine.
The bullpen also ranks 20th in wins above replacement, though the eventual returns of Daniel Hudson and Shelby Miller will resemble trade-deadline pickups.
More pressing are the holes in the Dodgers' dangerous yet inconsistent offense, specifically regarding four positions that rank in the bottom half of Major League Baseball in wins above replacement:
- Center field: 0.5 (23rd)
- Second base: 0.6 (21st)
- Left field: 0.7 (T-18th)
- Shortstop: 0.8 (22nd)
At short and in left field, the Dodgers just aren't getting enough out of veterans Miguel Rojas and David Peralta. Rookies Miguel Vargas and James Outman, meanwhile, have tailed off at second base and in center field after each had a sensational April.
If the Dodgers have one advantage on the summer trading market, it's an elite farm system loaded with top 100 prospects. Seemingly, another is room to spend after shaving about $60 million off their opening payroll from 2022.
With these things in mind, we've pitched five trades that would get the Dodgers back on track in the NL West and ranked them according to their potential impact. And with help from MLB.com's prospect rankings and validations from Baseball Trade Values, we've done our best to conjure fair offers.
5. James Paxton and Adam Duvall from Boston Red Sox
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Paxton's 2023 Stats: 8 GS, 42.1 IP, 32 H (6 HR), 54 K, 11 BB, 3.19 ERA
Duvall's 2023 Stats: 24 G, 97 PA, 5 HR, 2 SB, .267 AVG, .351 OBP, .570 SLG
With the Red Sox in last place in the American League East, Sean McAdam of MassLive.com can't be the only one wondering if they'll look to rent out James Paxton and Adam Duvall before their contracts expire at the end of the year.
After injuries sidelined him for most of 2020 and 2021 and all of 2022, Paxton's return to form has been one of this season's pleasant surprises. And it's not just his results. He's been operating with his best fastball velocity in years.
Duvall's numbers are skewed by the amazing start he got off to before he spent a couple months on the injured list with a broken wrist. But as a versatile defender who historically handles lefties well, the righty swinger would pair well with lefty swingers Peralta and Outman in Los Angeles.
Validated Trade: Dodgers get LHP James Paxton and OF Adam Duvall, Red Sox get RHP River Ryan and LHP Maddux Bruns
The Red Sox need young pitching, so it would be a nice little coup to turn Paxton and Duvall into the No. 13 and No. 15 prospects in the Dodgers' system. Though both have control issues, Ryan and Bruns are live-armed hurlers who are having success in the minors.
4. Jordan Montgomery and Dylan Carlson from St. Louis Cardinals
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Montgomery's 2023 Stats: 16 GS, 92.0 IP, 94 H (9 HR), 85 K, 23 BB, 3.52 ERA
Carlson's 2023 Stats: 45 G, 159 PA, 5 HR, 1 SB, .248 AVG, .327 OBP, .404 SLG
Despite occasional teases that they're ready to snap out of their funk, the Cardinals are 12 games under .500 and have been stuck in the NL Central cellar since May 29.
Cutting their losses is looking increasingly like the way to go, and Montgomery is easily their most appealing rental asset. The lefty has been an above average starter in each of the last three seasons, and he's averaging just south of six innings per start this year.
To hear it from Jim Bowden of The Athletic, the Cardinals are "ready to move on" from Carlson even though he's under club control through 2026. Though he's a switch-hitter, his superior splits from the right side make him a sneaky platoon candidate.
Validated Trade: Dodgers get LHP Jordan Montgomery and OF Dylan Carlson, Cardinals get RHP Gavin Stone, RHP Nick Frasso and LHP Maddux Bruns
The Cardinals are another basement dweller that badly needs controllable pitching. In this trade, they'd get the Dodgers' No. 5, No. 9 and No. 15 prospects. Stone has already seen major league action, while Frasso has a 75-grade fastball and has been using it to dominate with a 2.21 ERA for Double-A Tulsa.
3. Shane Bieber and Amed Rosario from Cleveland Guardians
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Bieber's 2023 Stats: 16 GS, 100.0 IP, 96 H (12 HR), 77 K, 27 BB, 3.69 ERA
Rosario's 2023 Stats: 71 G, 310 PA, 1 HR, 8 SB, .255 AVG, .303 OBP, .339 SLG
Those first two trades would help the Dodgers get to the postseason as NL West champs, but neither would promise to have a seismic impact if they were to get there.
This one would be different. Even if he's not the same guy who won the AL Cy Young Award in 2020, Shane Bieber is still an above-average innings eater who could follow Clayton Kershaw in a playoff rotation. Plus, he's under team control through next season.
Rosario, who's a free agent at season's end, looks like more of a wild card amid his slow start, but his track record is worth an upside play. He tends to be a strong finisher, with a .286 career average in the second half compared to .263 in the first half.
Validated Trade: Dodgers get RHP Shane Bieber and SS Amed Rosario, Guardians get 2B Michael Busch, OF Josue De Paula and SS Rayne Doncon
Whereas Boston and St. Louis need young arms, Cleveland needs young hitters. Busch, currently the Dodgers' No. 3 prospect, would be the big prize to this end, while De Paula (No. 11) and Doncon (No. 12) have long-term upside as dangerous hitters.
2. Marcus Stroman, Patrick Wisdom and Michael Fulmer from Chicago Cubs
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Stroman's 2023 Stats: 17 GS, 102.0 IP, 75 H (5 HR), 85 K, 35 BB, 2.47 ERA
Wisdom's 2023 Stats: 56 G, 208 PA, 14 HR, 2 SB, .196 AVG, .285 OBP, .467 SLG
Fulmer's 2023 Stats: 36 G, 34.1 IP, 31 H (4 HR), 39 K, 15 BB, 4.98 ERA
There are at least two reasons why Marcus Stroman, whose looming opt-out functionally makes him a pending free agent, is this summer's No. 1 trade chip: Shohei Ohtani isn't going anywhere and the man himself is really good.
Courtesy of a 2.58 ERA over 185 innings, Stroman has been about as valuable as any pitcher since last year's All-Star break. He's certainly not shy of the spotlight, with his MVP honors in the 2017 World Baseball Classic serving as a reminder that he can also handle it.
Wisdom, who's currently on the IL with a sprained wrist, is more of a throw-in, albeit one with upside that shows in his 90th percentile exit velocity. Were Dodgers hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc to work some magic on him, he could be more than just a platoon partner for Max Muncy. Wisdom is also controlled through 2026.
Validated Trade: Dodgers get RHP Marcus Stroman, 3B Patrick Wisdom and RHP Michael Fulmer, Cubs get C Dalton Rushing
This proposal also works with $5 million in cash in place of Fulmer, but the Dodgers might as well take the former AL Rookie of the Year as a lottery ticket. Either way, the Cubs would do well to target Rushing. He's the Dodgers' No. 4 prospect and boasts a 1.067 OPS through his first 78 minor league games.
1. Lucas Giolito and Tim Anderson from the Chicago White Sox
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Giolito's 2023 Stats: 16 GS, 92.1 IP, 82 H (14 HR), 99 K, 29 BB, 3.41 ERA
Anderson's 2023 Stats: 56 G, 237 PA, 0 HR, 8 SB, .232 AVG, .270 OBP, .272 SLG
Listen to enough Internet whispers, and you'll come away with the sense that Tim Anderson and the Dodgers simply belong together.
Granted, Anderson is having such a rough one this year that the White Sox would be justified in keeping him for 2024. But if the two-time All-Star and 2019 AL batting champion does heat up between now and Aug. 1, the Dodgers surely won't be the only team lining up for him.
Giolito, meanwhile, has rebounded from a rough 2022 season to look more like the guy who earned Cy Young votes in 2019, 2020 and 2021. A pending free agent, he's another name who could follow Kershaw in a playoff rotation.
Validated Trade: Dodgers get RHP Lucas Giolito and SS Tim Anderson, White Sox get RHP Nick Frasso and C Jesus Galiz
A straight-up trade involving Frasso technically works, but the White Sox would be able to push for at least one more prospect if Anderson does heat up. As a defense-first catcher with power potential, Galiz is precisely what they should want behind the plate in the long run.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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