Knicks Must Hold on to Obi Toppin amid Trade Rumors Ahead of 2023 NBA Draft
If the New York Knicks want a piece of the upcoming NBA draft, they'll need to trade their way into Thursday night's talent grab.
They don't possess a pick as things stand—they gave up their first-rounder to get do-it-all swingman Josh Hart at the trade deadline—but they could pave a path into the opening round.
There's just one catch: It would cost them Obi Toppin, the No. 8 pick of the 2020 draft.
The bouncy big man has spent his first three seasons trapped behind Julius Randle, who will remain an obstacle in the rotation as long as he's around. That has limited Toppin to fewer than 15 minutes per night so far, so any noise he's made on the court has been a bit muted by the general lack of floor time.
It might tempting, then, to move Toppin for someone with a cleaner route to a bigger role. If the Knicks dangled him in a trade, that might bring back a late first-round pick, per Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News.
A late first admittedly could offer some value. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, teams need all the cost-controlled talent they can get. Plus, every now and then, the basketball gods deliver an impact player in unexpected spots. The most recent NBA Finals pitted teams led by players picked 41st (Nikola Jokić) and 30th (Jimmy Butler), after all.
Chances are, though, the Knicks wouldn't be getting a difference-maker at that stage of the draft. The best they could reasonably hope for would be a rotation-caliber reserve, and there's a non-zero chance they'd be getting someone who never soaks up significant playing time.
That means the juice simply wouldn't be worth the squeeze.
There's way too much risk involved—both missing out on Toppin's potential and possibly misfiring on the pick—for what might be only a middling reward, or maybe worse.
Toppin is too good to let that happen.
He hasn't really failed any NBA tests yet. His real issue is simply not being granted access to that assessment. It's hard to say he definitively can or can't play when he's hardly hit the hardwood.
And what he has shown in limited minutes has been mostly encouraging.
He isn't the most reliable defender, but his offensive upside is immense. His average per-36-minutes production includes 17 points, 2.1 assists and 2.0 three-pointers, per Basketball-Reference.com. He bounces around like he's wearing moon boots, he has a face-up game, his three-ball is streaky but promising and he can create a little for himself and his teammates.
He's an interesting player. He isn't a surefire star, but the possibility of him one day elevating to that level can't be ruled out yet. He just needs a chance, and the Knicks should get more creative in finding his opportunities rather than letting someone else take over his development—especially if subtracting him only means adding a late first.
New York needs to make a more firm commitment to him. There's a financial aspect to that, as he's extension-eligible this offseason. His value is a little tricky to calculate, but 10 of 15 front office staffers polled by The Athletic's Fred Katz recently opined a "fair" extension amount for Toppin would be a salary ranging from $10 million to $15 million annually.
That's by no means an insignificant sum, but it also isn't a mountain of money in the NBA economy. It seems more like a reasonable bet for someone who still believes Toppin has significant untapped potential.
Why wouldn't the Knicks feel that way? What has Toppin done to lose their trust?
If New York simply isn't convinced he can take on a bigger role—or won't get that chance in the Big Apple any time soon—then, sure, take what you can get for him now and move on. But the Knicks shouldn't be that stage yet.
They can get more creative with their rotations. They could give the Randle-Toppin frontcourt a longer look. They could cut Randle's minutes from the mid-30s to the low-30s, potentially keeping him fresher and giving Toppin a better chance to find his rhythm.
Let's not forget, too, that trading Randle might be something to explore. If that's even remotely possible for this front office, it should want Toppin around to help fill that void.
Trading Toppin could make sense at some point, but now isn't the time. Not when he hasn't been given his sink-or-swim chance yet, and certainly not if he's only going to deliver a long-shot throw at the draft dart board.
