BS Meter for Latest 2023 NBA Draft Rumors
Less than one week remains before the 2023 NBA draft.
That means the entire hoops world has entered the heart of smoke-screen season.
Rumors are swirling around the Association and spawning at such a rapid rate that it's tricky to tell which ones to trust. Luckily, our trusty BS meter is at the ready to help suss out what buzz is believable and what smells a little...well, BS-y.
Are the New Orleans Pelicans really weighing life without Zion Williamson? Could the Golden State Warriors actually split from prized prospect Jonathan Kuminga? Read on to get those answers and more about the latest draft-related trade talks.
Pelicans Eyeing Scoot Henderson at the Expense of Zion Williamson?
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G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson has plenty of fans in this draft—he might be the No. 1 pick if not for a certain 7'5" French phenom—but the New Orleans Pelicans are apparently among his most ardent supporters.
According to Stadium's Shams Charania, the Pelicans are "expected to aggressively pursue" a top pick with the hopes of landing Henderson. How could New Orleans make that happen? Well, it might require the franchise to move on from none other than Zion Williamson, the top pick in the 2019 draft, who has flashed both super-high-end talent and a boatload of injury concerns through his first four NBA campaigns.
As ESPN's Brian Windhorst put it, there is an "eye being kept toward" whether the Pels would actually move on from Williamson. NBA insider Marc Stein heard from a "well-placed" source who believes New Orleans would let the 22-year-old go if it meant getting Henderson. Of course, a separate source told Stein they didn't believe the Charlotte Hornets would even part with that pick for Williamson.
In theory, the Pels could dangle Brandon Ingram instead, but Stein's read is that New Orleans would be less likely to part with Ingram than Williamson.
What It Comes Down To
There's plenty to unpack here, but the crux of it is this: Is Henderson's upside worth the risk of losing Williamson or Ingram? The answer is yes—for Williamson, not Ingram—but it's complicated.
Henderson offers superstar potential. He's a hyper-explosive shot-creator—his athleticism is in the peak Russell Westbrook/Derrick Rose range—who can consistently generate scoring chances out of isolations and pick-and-rolls.
The 19-year-old is also an iffy outside shooter who can have trouble with turnovers and could be targeted on defense for his lack of size (6'2").
So, he comes with some risk attached, but let's not pretend Williamson isn't a red flag come to life. He has played 114 games (less than a season-and-a-half) in four NBA seasons. He is just now starting a five-year contract that will pay him nearly $200 million. That's a colossal amount of cash for someone teams can't reasonably expect to be available one night to the next.
The Duke product is, of course, also uber-productive when he plays (26 points on 60.8 percent shooting, 7.0 rebounds and 4.6 assists this season), so there would be a ton of risk in trading him.
However, after playing the will-he-or-won't-he-play game for four seasons now, the Pelicans could be forgiven for running low on patience and desiring a change.
BS Meter: Less detected than you'd think. The idea of a Williamson swap still seems far-fetched, but the Pelicans might be fed up with his constant injury issues. If they're sky-high on Henderson, they could see him as a great enough return to let the former Blue Devil go.
Raptors, Wizards Seeking Top-3 Pick?
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Major changes could be in store for both the Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards this offseason.
Each has already authored one significant shift. Toronto split from Nick Nurse to give Darko Rajaković his first head coaching gig, while Washington ousted general manager Tommy Sheppard and gave new front-office head Michael Winger the proverbial keys to the castle.
Considering both clubs were on rebuilding watch before the moves were made, either situation could snowball into a full-scale overhaul.
To that end, The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor reported these two teams have "explored trades to move up into the top three."
What It Comes Down To
In terms of these teams coveting an early selection, there aren't even trace amounts of BS detected. If they're contemplating a youth movement, they'll want someone to lead it (or, in Toronto's case, co-lead it with last season's Rookie of the Year, Scottie Barnes).
When it comes to actually acquiring the pick, though, one of these team's chances is not like the other's.
The Raptors have superior trade chips. Bradley Beal and his mammoth contract (which improbably features a no-trade clause) isn't bringing back a top-three pick. Same goes for Kristaps Porziņģis, who'd come with a detailed injury history and just a single season left on his deal if he picks up his player option.
But Pascal Siakam or O.G. Anunoby—plus the No. 13 pick if needed—could move the needle, particularly for a Portland Trail Blazers team seemingly desperate to find more win-now support for Damian Lillard.
BS Meter: Varying amounts detected. Both teams almost certainly want an early pick, but Toronto is the only one with a realistic chance of securing it.
Rockets Rank Amen Thompson as High as Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller?
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In the eyes of many, the 2023 draft starts with a three-player tier at the top.
Well, it's actually two separate tiers, as Victor Wembanyama is running unopposed for the No. 1 pick, while Scoot Henderson and Alabama swingman Brandon Miller occupy the next two selection spots (in either order) of virtually any mock you'll find.
Holding the No. 4 pick in a three-player draft is an absolute bummer, then. Unless, of course, you think there's a fourth prized prospect in this draft, as the Houston Rockets reportedly do.
Kelly Iko of The Athletic reported the Rockets "strongly believe" Overtime Elite guard Amen Thompson belongs in the same tier with Henderson and Miller. That could be the kind of thing you say in hopes of perking up a fanbase that might be disheartened by the lottery draw, but could Houston actually feel that way?
To be clear, it's not a totally outlandish take. The way ESPN's Jonathan Givony sees it, the 20-year-old "has a higher ceiling than any prospect in this class not named Wembanyama."
Then again, Givony notes that Thompson's "floor is much lower than some of his peers at the top of the draft," so there's real boom-or-bust potential here.
What It Comes Down To
Functionally, Thompson sounds like the type of player modern teams should be all over. He's a 6'7" playmaker with elite physical tools, jaw-dropping athleticism, tremendous vision and possibly 1-through-5 versatility on defense.
However, he's not a shooting threat at all at this stage, and there's no guarantee that skill ever develops.
Thompson also isn't the most consistent creator in the half court, and his decision-making is a work in progress. He has all-galaxy potential on defense, but his attentiveness can wane, and he's prone to bouts of sleepiness off the ball.
His highest-end outcomes are dreamy, but his lowest-end ones are nightmarish. That's, frankly, too big a gap to be regarded among the three best prospects in this draft.
BS Meter: Medium amount detected. The Rockets might be thrilled to take Thompson fourth overall, but if they were drafting second, they'd likely be debating between Henderson and Miller like everyone else is.
Warriors Shopping Jonathan Kuminga for a High Pick?
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At some point in the not-so-distant past, Jonathan Kuminga seemed front and center of the Golden State Warriors' two-timeline strategy.
The 20-year-old had carved out a niche role as an on-ball defender and athletic finisher while also flashing hints of advanced shot-creation suggesting stardom could be awaiting him down the line.
Kuminga felt like a no-brainer keeper, but in the warp-speed realm that is NBA life, the not-so-distant past gets buried in the rearview mirror real quick. Suddenly, this potential cornerstone might now be merely a trade chip.
The Warriors are "exploring the option of acquiring a high draft pick in exchange for a young prospect such as Jonathan Kuminga," per ESPN's Jonathan Givony. While that wording makes it sound as if other prospects could be dangled, this is all about Kuminga. Moses Moody and Patrick Baldwin Jr. aren't delivering a lottery selection.
It's possible Kuminga wouldn't, either. It's never easy to sell someone as a potential star when you're unwilling to give that same player significant minutes for two consecutive seasons.
What It Comes Down To
Yes, this is a unique situation for a top-10 pick given Golden State's win-now intentions. But trade partners won't automatically overlook the fact that the Warriors have only found Kuminga 18.8 minutes of floor time per night so far.
Maybe a change of scenery could still kick-start something special in his career, but is that chance great enough for anyone to accept the opportunity cost of sacrificing a top-10 pick?
Kuminga has already played out the first two seasons of his rookie contract, so that's an early strike against him when compared to an incoming prospect. Plus, who's to say he offers any more potential than, say, Ausar Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker or Taylor Hendricks?
This feels like the Dubs are merely doing their due diligence. To that end, The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor noted Golden State has also explored trading back or out of the No. 19 pick.
BS Meter: Significant amount detected. While Kuminga's future with the franchise has never felt less certain, trading him for anything other than an established player would be puzzling given the ticking clock attached to 35-year-old Stephen Curry.
Mavs, Hawks Talking Trade Involving John Collins and No. 10 Pick?
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The Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks know a thing or two about shaking up the draft board. In 2018, they brokered the blockbuster trade that sent Luka Dončić to Dallas and delivered Trae Young (plus a pick later used on Cam Reddish) to Atlanta.
They don't have the means to strike such a landscape-shifting swap this time around, but they could still get together and shake things up.
Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer reported the two sides have "discussed the idea of swapping Dāvis Bertāns and the No. 10 pick for John Collins and the No. 15 selection." That may not be an earth-shattering move, but Collins going to Dallas could be notable, as the Mavericks attempt to strengthen their roster around Dončić and (presumably) a re-signed Kyrie Irving.
Collins is coming off one of the least productive seasons of his career, but he's still averaged 15.8 points and 8.0 rebounds over 364 career outings (313 starts). Assuming his jumper bounces back (29.2 three-point percentage this season, way down from 38.8 the three campaigns prior), he could be an impact screen partner for Dallas' playmakers, since he can pop out to the perimeter or roll to the rim for highlight finishes.
Collins isn't a needle-mover, but Dallas could be set on those already (assuming Irving re-signs and is available more often than not—neither of which is guaranteed). Instead, he'd be a strong support piece, which the Mavs were short on after the deadline.
What It Comes Down To
Dallas' interest here isn't hard to figure out. The same can't be said for Atlanta, though.
Despite Collins' numbers trending down, he still seems worth more than a five-pick jump, especially when said hike also requires taking on the remainder of Bertāns' bloated deal (two years, $33 million).
Maybe Atlanta is simply out on Collins at this point, but even then, this would be turning a non-negative asset into a pretty underwhelming return.
BS Meter: High amount detected. Fischer noted these talks "do not appear to have progressed at this time," and it seems unlikely they ever will. The one exception is if the Hawks have a particular prospect in mind, and that player reaches the No. 10 spot. Otherwise, this ain't happening.
