Realistic NBA Draft Night Trades, and One 3-Team Doozy
With a new and potentially more restrictive collective bargaining incoming, we could see a flurry of trades near or during Thursday's NBA draft and before the new league year starts on July 1.
Some teams will undoubtedly be looking to cut costs in anticipation of the $179.5 million "second apron" line. Being over that mark brings some potentially crippling penalties in the new cap environment.
That won't scare everyone off of making (or at least trying to make) splashy win-now moves, though. There are certainly teams still thinking they're one piece away, as the Phoenix Suns clearly did when they traded for Bradley Beal. That idea can be alluring.
Whatever the reasons, you can bet a number of organizations will be active in trade discussions on draft night. And below, you'll find deals that make sense for all involved.
Chris Paul to the Clippers
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The Deal: Eric Gordon, Robert Covington and the No. 30 pick in 2023 to the Wizards for Chris Paul.
Shortly after the Wizards acquired Chris Paul as part of the Beal trade, Bleacher Report's Chris Haynes reported that may not be his only move this summer.
Of course, this isn't the only way to get CP3 back to the Los Angeles Clippers. Earlier this offseason, Haynes reported on the possibility of Paul being waived by the Suns. With his 2023-24 salary partially guaranteed (and 2024-25 fully non-guaranteed) Washington could consider the same path forward.
But if there is a team that would give the Wizards an asset, an outright waiving obviously wouldn't make sense.
The No. 30 pick in this draft probably doesn't carry a ton of value, but Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jokić were picked 30th and 41st in their draft years, respectively. You never know what might happen. Getting a flyer and the expiring contracts of Eric Gordon (whose 2023-24 salary is non-guaranteed) and Robert Covington would be a win for Washington.
For L.A., whether right or wrong, Covington was basically out of the rotation this season. And Eric Gordon was a midseason addition who barely moved the needle (the Clippers were actually worse with him on the floor in both the regular and postseason).
Turning those roster spots into CP3, who averaged 13.9 points and 8.9 assists while posting a higher box plus/minus than Beal, would take some offensive responsibility from Kawhi Leonard and Paul George and undoubtedly raise the ceiling on L.A.'s halfcourt offense.
Of course, this would also compound the Clippers already significant injury concerns, but if things go poorly on that front, L.A. can waive Paul's entire 2024-25 salary next summer.
Jordan Poole to the Magic
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The Deal: Gary Harris and a 2025 first-round pick (via Denver) to the Warriors for Jordan Poole
Few teams face as much pressure from the aforementioned "second apron" as the Golden State Warriors, who could have over $200 million in salary committed to 2023-24, assuming Draymond Green picks up his player option.
The most obvious way to get under that $179.5 million line (or at least closer to it) is by trading Jordan Poole, who's set to make $28.7 million in 2023-24 under a contract that peaks at $35.3 million in 2026-27.
This deal applies to the parenthetical in that it at least gets the Warriors closer to dodging the second apron. And it still gives them a rotation player who can help right away.
Gary Harris didn't score near as much as Poole in 2022-23 (he averaged 8.3 points, compared to Poole's 20.4), but he was a far more efficient shooter, had a better box plus/minus and is a more reliable defender.
Turning a hefty, lengthy contract into a smaller, expiring one and a future first-round pick would almost certainly be a win for Golden State.
What might make it a loss, of course, is Poole rediscovering his form from the 2022 playoffs, when he averaged 17.0 points, 3.8 assists and 2.3 threes, while shooting 39.1 percent from deep
If he becomes that player again for the Orlando Magic, they might suddenly push for a playoff spot in 2024.
That roster already has a ton of upside in Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. Adding an explosive playmaker who turns 24 in June could further facilitate the team's development.
Damian Lillard to the Heat
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The Deal: Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, the No. 18 pick in 2023, a first-round pick in 2027, a first-round pick swap in 2028 and a 2029 first-round pick for Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkić
The Miami Heat were reportedly a finalist for Beal, and they can now turn their attention to another potential superstar move.
As recently as this week, Damian Lillard said he wants to stay with the Portland Trail Blazers, but The Athletic's David Aldridge wrote, "Miami has clearly prioritized getting Damian Lillard from Portland, with Jimmy Butler a central part of the Heat's recruiting pitch."
If that pitch entices Lillard, and the Blazers are unable to land a difference-making veteran with the No. 3 pick, it still feels like there's a chance the Blazers could move their superstar.
Like Beal, Lillard has a massive contract that could become pretty onerous by its end. The player option in 2026-27, Lillard's age-36 season, is set to pay him $63.2 million. That could chill a Lillard bidding war just enough for Miami to be a realistic suitor.
It can offer this year's mid-first rounder and two future firsts outright. Throw in that 2028 pick swap, and you're getting close to a deal in the range of the star packages we've seen from the last 12 months.
And if that's enough to get Lillard to the Heat, Miami would suddenly have a trio with him, Butler and Bam Adebayo that could reasonably be described as better than the Phoenix Suns' new big three.
Given what we've seen from that organization in terms of development and finding undrafted talent over the years, it's easier to see them rounding out a supporting cast too.
For the Blazers, moving Lillard probably means starting a full-fledged rebuild. And acquiring Tyler Herro's long-term money doesn't really fit with that goal. But he's only 23, and his contract peaks at $33 million (just over half of Lillard's top salary). If he played well enough in the coming seasons, Portland might be able to flip him for more assets down the road.
In this particular build, the Blazers are also getting off the contract of Jusuf Nurkić (which runs through 2026). That's flexibility for them and a backup big for Miami (who was in need of one during the Finals).
But ultimately, this is obviously about the picks first and foremost. And that's not a bad haul for a point guard with a potentially burdensome contract in his mid-30s.
The 3-Team Doozy
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Suns Receive: Myles Turner and Payton Pritchard
Celtics Receive: Buddy Hield, Cameron Payne, the No. 7 pick in 2023 from Indiana and a 2027 first-round pick from Indiana
Pacers Receive: Jaylen Brown and Deandre Ayton
OK, time to get a little funkier.
This deal started with an effort to get Boston Celtics guard Payton Pritchard to the Suns, as they're now without CP3 and Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer reported that he has "several supporters in Phoenix's front office."
Finding a logical two-teamer there proved difficult, though. And eventually using the deal to reroute Deandre Ayton to a third team felt like the natural progression.
Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus listed the Indiana Pacers as a potential suitor for Ayton, who's often been disgruntled in Phoenix and signed an offer sheet from Indiana just last summer.
From the Suns' perspective, this deal and the Beal trade that actually went down turn Ayton and 38-year-old CP3 into Beal, Pritchard and three-and-D center Myles Turner. Beal's contract certainly makes the cap sheet more restrictive, but those moves give the team more shooting to deploy around Booker and KD.
For Boston, having a Pritchard trade morph into the loss of Jaylen Brown may not make a ton of sense on the surface, but the Celtics should be interested in moving him for the right deal.
Because he made All-NBA, he's eligible for a five-year, $295 million extension. Things could get awkward pretty quick if that deal isn't offered, but the alternative might be worse.
Under the new collective bargaining agreement, combining a deal that size with the five-year, $318 million extension for which Jayson Tatum is eligible next summer is more than daunting. Building out the rest of the roster after that would be tricky (to put it mildly), and Boston's Eastern Conference Finals flameout against the Heat has to cause some concern about the future of that duo.
Instead of paying him, this deal lands the Celtics an all-time great three-point shooter in Buddy Hield (who's averaged 3.1 threes and hit 40.2 percent of his three-point attempts) and gets them multiple bites at the draft apple. With this new cap and second apron, having contributors on rookie contracts is going to be crucial.
Cameron Payne adds a little depth for not much money at the point guard spot too.
Finally, there's the Pacers end of this. And although they walk away with the most troubling financial burden in this deal, this is pretty easy to justify from a basketball perspective.
It suddenly gives Indiana a young and talented Big Three of Ayton, Brown and Tyrese Haliburton.
And with Rick Carlisle at the helm, that trio could get the Pacers back to the playoffs as early as 2024.
