What's Next for Suns After Season's Biggest Trade and Another 2nd-Round Exit?

This couldn't have been what the Phoenix Suns had in mind when they made the blockbuster deal for Kevin Durant. Partnering Devin Booker and Durant, two of the NBA's elite scorers, with Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton seemed more than enough to overwhelm most opponents, at least offensively.

Unfortunately, Paul, 38, is much closer to the end of his career than in his prime; a groin injury knocked him out of the semifinals against the Denver Nuggets. The Suns gave up too much depth to build a top-heavy roster—a potential liability, even at full strength. That Ayton missed the finale with a rib contusion only added insult to yet another injury.

Under the new leadership of team governor Mat Ishbia, the Suns went for it. And fell flat. But was the Durant trade a mistake or the foundational move that needs an offseason for the franchise to fill out the rest of the roster?

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Still Top-Heavy

The Suns go into summer with the same issues they faced in the playoffs: too much invested in four players and not enough support throughout.

That shouldn't be a shock to the front office, who sources say understood their initial run with Durant may have a ceiling. Similar to the Kyrie Irving deal in Dallas (though the Mavericks didn't even make the play-in, let alone the playoffs), the meat of some moves may be about the future. Any short-term success is just the gravy.

Phoenix needs depth. Period. Over the last few months, many executives, agents and other NBA sources were asked, "Who is the fifth-best player on the Suns?"

The answers included Torrey Craig, Cam Payne, Josh Okogie and Landry Shamet, but none of the replies suggested the Suns were swimming in a sea of riches. The consensus was that the team didn't have a fifth NBA-caliber starter. Not to denigrate those listed above—they are all rotation-level players—but those polled didn't think the Suns had enough depth to win a title this season.

That included skepticism that Paul would stay healthy for the postseason run. More than one source said the Suns were looking to trade him for a replacement before the deadline then shifted gears when Durant became available.

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Limited Means

Under the new collective bargaining agreement rules, the Suns project to be right at the second apron (approximately $179.5 million) with six players under contract. That includes Durant, Booker, Paul, Ayton, Shamet and Payne.

At that salary level, the team won't have a taxpayer mid-level exception (projected to be $5 million), which limits the Suns to minimum contracts (outside of re-signing their own players). Additionally, as of July, the franchise will be limited to trades that bring back up to 110 percent of the outgoing salary unless it reduces its total payroll below the second apron.

With Shamet ($10.3 million for 2023-24), Payne ($6.5 million with $2 million guaranteed) and Ishmail Wainright ($1.9 million non-guaranteed), the Suns may not have coveted salary and the kind of draft compensation needed to make a substantial deal without including one or more of its top-four players.

Additionally, the franchise sent four first-round picks (plus a swap) to the Brooklyn Nets for Durant. Because of the Stepien Rule, Phoenix has zero available firsts to offer in a trade.

Second-round picks can help get smaller deals done, and while the Suns don't have any extra seconds, they do have most of their own (2029 is owed to the Oklahoma City Thunder).

Finally, the Suns can try to sign and trade a pending free agent (restricted), like Darius Bazley, but he may not be enough to move the needle.

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Paul's Tenure Nearing an End?

Phoenix is facing a payroll in the danger zone known as the second apron and has limited contracts and picks to send out in trades. The right minimum players could help, but if the Suns want more substantiative change, trading one or two of its top four players is probably the answer.

Paul's salary, in particular, could prove helpful since only $15.8 million of $30.8 million is guaranteed, and his $30 million for 2024-25 is non-guaranteed. If Paul were waived, his salary could be stretched over five years at $3.2 million a season.

That would immediately drop the Suns to about $8.1 million below the projected luxury tax threshold of $162 million. The team would gain the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (projected $12.2 million) and bi-annual exception ($4.4 million). Spending both would put the Suns back into the tax and hard cap their payroll at roughly $169 million.

Phoenix may be unable to replace Paul's ball-handling guard duties at that price unless it wants to make a run at Russell Westbrook.

Or, Paul could be traded with a team valuing him as a player or simply as a contract to waive and stretch; perhaps a franchise looking to escape similar luxury tax/second apron issues like the Golden State Warriors (though Jordan Poole is an odd fit with Durant and Booker), L.A. Clippers (veteran role players like Marcus Morris Sr., Robert Covington, etc.) or Dallas Mavericks (Tim Hardaway Jr, JaVale McGee and Dāvis Bertāns, among others).

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Ayton the Most Viable Bait

The Suns have had an odd history with Ayton, refusing to pay him a long-term extension before the 2021-22 season after the NBA Finals appearance and then making him seek an offer sheet from the Indiana Pacers last summer (which Phoenix matched). He also doesn't seem to have ideal chemistry with coach Monty Williams, though he is one of the top young centers in the game.

Given Paul's main appeal in trade is probably his contract, and the Suns don't have much to offer in sweetener, Ayton may be the necessary main course in any blockbuster deal.

Ayton, almost 25, has three years left on his deal at $32.45 million for 2023-24 ($102 million total), so the Suns should have a long list of suitors from competitive to rebuilding teams—especially those that struggle to land free agents and would value the length of his contract.

It's too early to gauge the Ayton market (with the May 16 draft lottery gifting one franchise Victor Wembanyama). Still, that list of teams could include the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs, Pacers or Mavericks, among others.

And the Suns could package Ayton and Paul together, perhaps in a multi-team swap, to build out the kind of return that would make a Durant/Booker combination more viable. Ideally, that would be for a true point guard like Paul—whose most significant deficit is availability because of injury—a replacement center for Ayton and depth in general.

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Changes Up Top?

After two straight disappointing finishes and an aging Paul, the Suns have several crucial decisions this offseason.

Multiple NBA sources wonder who exactly will be making those decisions. Some expect Ishbia to turn over the team's front office, as new ownership is prone to do. If so, that could also lead to Williams' departure as well.

To be clear, there's no indication at this early date that Ishbia will part with Williams or general manager James Jones. However, sources emphasize it's something to keep a close eye on as a reasonable possibility, especially in the coming weeks.

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