Shane Bieber, Aaron Nola and 10 Starting Pitchers Who Could Be Traded in July
Starting pitching is always in demand at the MLB trade deadline as contenders look to shore up their rotation for the stretch run.
The biggest splash last year was the Seattle Mariners acquiring Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds, but that was far from the only major move to land a starter.
His teammate, Tyler Mahle, went to the Minnesota Twins in a deal that brought back 2023 NL Rookie of the Year contender Spencer Steer; left-handers Jordan Montgomery and José Quintana both joined the St. Louis Cardinals; an ill-fated deal sent Frankie Montas from the Oakland Athletics to the New York Yankees; and Noah Syndergaard joined the World Series-bound Philadelphia Phillies.
So, which starting pitchers could be on the move this summer?
Ahead, we've highlighted 10 notable starters who could be dealt in July, based on their contract status, production and outlook of their current club.
RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians
1 of 10
Stats: 13 GS, 4-3, 3.57 ERA (4.05 FIP), 1.28 WHIP, 22 BB, 55 K, 80.2 IP
Contract: Arbitration-eligible for the final time in 2024
Shane Bieber is still chasing the peak performance he showcased during the shortened 2020 season when he finished 8-1 with a 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 122 strikeouts in 77.1 innings to take home AL Cy Young honors.
The 28-year-old scored another top-10 finish in Cy Young balloting in 2022, but he has not shown the same ability to miss bats this year.
His strikeout rate has plummeted to a career-low 16.3 percent, a mark that ranks 63rd among 66 qualified starting pitchers. His fastball velocity has steadily dropped from 94.1 mph during the 2020 season to just 91.2 mph this year, and he is leaning more heavily on his slider as opposed to his curveball which was his go-to strikeout pitch a few years ago.
As a result, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that rival executives do not believe he will "fetch a significant return" on the trade market.
If Cleveland does not intend to pursue an extension, it could still make sense for the team to flip him for a modest return this summer if it continues to underperform in the AL Central.
RHP Paul Blackburn, Oakland Athletics
2 of 10
Stats: 3 GS, 0-0, 3.60 ERA (3.27 FIP), 1.33 WHIP, 5 BB, 14 K, 15.0 IP
Contract: Arbitration-eligible through the 2025 season
Paul Blackburn went 5-0 with a 1.70 ERA through his first nine starts last season and ended representing the Oakland Athletics in the All-Star Game, ultimately finishing with a 4.28 ERA in 111.1 innings.
The 29-year-old missed the first 55 games of the 2023 season with a fingernail issue, but he returned to action in late May, and last time out he tossed six shutout innings of four-hit ball against the Milwaukee Brewers.
While Blackburn is earning just $1.9 million this year, that is enough to make him one of the 10 highest-paid players on the Oakland roster, and that salary could double next year in his second year of arbitration.
That might be reason enough for the penny-pinching Athletics to move him in July.
RHP Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants
3 of 10
Stats: 13 GS, 5-2, 3.01 ERA (3.30 FIP), 1.35 WHIP, 19 BB, 71 K, 74.2 IP
Contract: $10 million club option ($2 million buyout) for 2024
Alex Cobb has dealt with injuries throughout his MLB career, and 12 years after making his MLB debut, he has still never started 30 games in a season.
However, he has been a rock-solid middle-of-the-rotation starter when healthy and sports a 3.80 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 1,038 strikeouts in 1,234.2 career innings here in his age-35 season.
He started 28 games last season with a 3.73 ERA in 149.2 innings, and he is off to a strong start again this season for a San Francisco Giants team hovering on the fringe of wild-card contention.
The flexibility of Cobb's reasonable $10 million club option for next year makes him an appealing trade target for teams looking to add some depth to their staff, and even if the Giants don't sell aggressively, he is still a logical sell-high candidate.
RHP Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
4 of 10
Stats: 13 GS, 5-4, 3.75 ERA (4.28 FIP), 1.20 WHIP, 24 BB, 76 K, 74.1 IP
Contract: Free agent this offseason
After three seasons as a bona fide ace atop the Chicago White Sox rotation, Lucas Giolito struggled through a down year in 2022, finishing with a 4.90 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 161.2 innings.
That made this something of a make-or-break year for the 28-year-old with free agency looming this offseason and a chance at a potential $100 million payday if he could bounce back to his pre-2022 form.
While he has not quite returned to ace-caliber production, trimming his opponents' batting average from .272 to .232—right in line with his .231 career mark—is a great sign in regard to his stuff.
Even as a two-month rental, Giolito could be one of the most sought after players on the market this summer if the White Sox decide to put him on the block.
RHP Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
5 of 10
Stats: 13 GS, 1-6, 4.59 ERA (4.37 FIP), 1.13 WHIP, 9 BB, 50 K, 66.2 IP
Contract: Free agent this offseason
Zack Greinke is still finding ways to get MLB hitters out, even with a fastball that averages 89.5 mph and a whiff rate that is among the worst in baseball.
The 39-year-old is no longer the workhorse he was in his prime, and he has completed six innings just twice in 13 starts this year, but he can still be an effective starter when not exposed to an opposing team's lineup for a third time.
His 4.14 ERA in 113.0 career playoff innings will be attractive to any contender looking for an experienced No. 3/4 starter heading into October, and the remainder of his $8.5 million salary should be easy to fit into most payroll situations.
Retiring in a Royals uniform is a nice thought, but it's hard to imagine Greinke turning down the opportunity to pitch some meaningful games.
RHP Michael Lorenzen, Detroit Tigers
6 of 10
Stats: 10 GS, 2-3, 3.75 ERA (4.02 FIP), 1.02 WHIP, 13 BB, 44 K, 60.0 IP
Contract: Free agent this offseason
After pitching primarily out of the bullpen during his time with the Cincinnati Reds, right-hander Michael Lorenzen joined the Los Angeles Angels on a one-year deal last season and posted a 4.24 ERA in 97.2 innings over 18 starts.
The Detroit Tigers signed him to a one-year, $8.5 million deal during the offseason to help fill out their starting rotation, and he has quietly been one of the better bargain signings of the winter.
The 31-year-old does not miss a ton of bats, but a career-low 2.0 walks per nine innings has helped him post a 1.02 WHIP, which ranks 10th among all pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings this year.
Lorenzen has five quality starts in 10 appearances this year, and while he isn't going to front a contender's rotation, he can be a useful middle-of-the-rotation arm to help provide some depth to the staff.
RHP Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
7 of 10
Stats: 14 GS, 5-5, 4.60 ERA (4.25 FIP), 1.10 WHIP, 23 BB, 84 K, 88.0 IP
Contract: Free agent this offseason
Would a Philadelphia Phillies team just a year removed from reaching the World Series really consider trading Aaron Nola?
They currently sit two games below .500 with a minus-37 run differential in third place in the NL East standings, and the two sides broke off extension talks just before the start of the season as he closes out a five-year, $56.75 million contract.
With roughly $160 million committed to Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Taijuan Walker for the 2024 season, adding another significant long-term contract to the books might not be in the club's best interest.
If that's the case, and the Phillies don't make a push up the standings in the next month, Nola could be a game-changing addition to the July trade market.
LHP Eduardo Rodríguez, Detroit Tigers
8 of 10
Stats: 11 GS, 4-4, 2.13 ERA (3.15 FIP), 0.98 WHIP, 16 BB, 67 K, 67.2 IP
Contract: Three years, $49 million left on contract, can opt-out this offseason
Eduardo Rodríguez was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the first two months of the season before suffering a ruptured pulley in his finger, which attaches the tendon to the bone and greatly impacts a pitcher's ability to grip a baseball.
The injury was diagnosed on June 2, and a typical recovery timetable was identified as six weeks by Jason Beck of MLB.com, which means the 30-year-old could return in time to make a start or two before the trade deadline to prove he is healthy.
His strong start made it seem likely he would exercise the ability to opt out of the final three seasons of his five-year, $77 million deal, especially considering the current state of things for a Detroit Tigers team that seemed to be on the come-up when he signed that deal.
There are a lot of moving parts here, but Rodríguez is a name worth monitoring leading up to the trade deadline.
LHP Drew Smyly, Chicago Cubs
9 of 10
Stats: 13 GS, 5-4, 3.27 ERA (3.94 FIP), 1.16 WHIP, 20 BB, 61 K, 71.2 IP
Contract: $8.5 million player option for 2024
It's been a long, winding road of a career for Drew Smyly.
He was a top prospect in the minors, had a promising rookie season and pitched in the World Series in 2012, was a centerpiece in the David Price-to-Detroit blockbuster trade with the Tampa Bay Rays two years later, missed two full seasons in 2017 and 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery, pitched for four teams in three years once he returned to action, and is now throwing the ball extremely well for the Chicago Cubs in his age-34 season.
The left-hander ranks among the MLB leaders in average exit velocity allowed (84th percentile) and hard-hit rate (90th percentile), and his solid 3.94 FIP makes it easier to buy into his strong start to the year.
His player option for next season is a no-brainer to decline if he keeps it up, so he will be treated as a rental in terms of return value.
RHP Marcus Stroman, Chicago Cubs
10 of 10
Stats: 14 GS, 7-4, 2.42 ERA (3.48 FIP), 1.04 WHIP, 31 BB, 73 K, 85.2 IP
Contract: $21 million player option for 2024
Right-hander Marcus Stroman finished 6-7 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 119 strikeouts in 138.2 innings during the first season of a three-year, $71 million deal with the Chicago Cubs, missing time with shoulder inflammation.
It is looking more and more likely that he will exercise an opt-out in that contract ahead of the 2024 season as he has emerged as a bona fide NL Cy Young contender with a terrific start to the year.
His 2024 player option can climb to $23 million if he reaches 160 innings pitched this year, but the opportunity to land a significant multi-year deal as one of the top starting pitchers on the market will far outweigh that one-year guarantee.
The 32-year-old leads all qualified pitchers with a 61.0 percent groundball rate, and he has benefited greatly from pitching in front of the elite middle-infield tandem of Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson, so that's something to consider for teams targeting him next month.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and accurate through Saturday's games.
