NBA Finals 2023: Hot Takes and Top Storylines Heat vs. Nuggets Game 4

Home-court advantage has now been swiped twice in the 2023 NBA Finals.

First, the Miami Heat wrestled it away with a Game 2 victory that delivered the Denver Nuggets their first home loss of these playoffs. Then, the Nuggets snatched it right back with a 15-point triumph in Game 3.

Friday night's Game 4 collision (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC) could determine whether we still have a series or not.

Will the Nuggets put themselves on the doorstep of their first NBA title? Or can these Heat find yet another way to rally themselves and keep defying expectations?

A Must-Win for Miami

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MIAMI, FLORIDA - JANUARY 23: Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat high fives head coach Erik Spoelstra against the Los Angeles Lakers at FTX Arena on January 23, 2022 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

While the Heat have routinely tested the limits of what is possible this postseason, it's impossible to picture them reeling off three consecutive wins against these Nuggets.

So, yes, Friday night is absolutely a must-win affair for Miami.

The Heat are facing a talent deficit in this series—that would be the case even with a healthy Tyler Herro—and it shows. Denver already has secured a pair of double-digit wins. Miami, meanwhile, needed a 36-point fourth quarter to squeeze out a three-point win in Game 2, which wasn't secured until Jamal Murray failed to convert a decent look at a game-tying triple at the horn.

The Heat have no margin for error, and that's without Michael Porter Jr. (15.8 three-point percentage) or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (22.2) finding their form in this series. Miami must dominate the hustle stats, make outside shots, get to the line, limit turnovers and put up a good fight on the glass to have a chance.

That's a ton to ask of one team, but the Heat have aced these categories before.

Historic Start for Denver's Stars

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DENVER, CO - JUNE 4: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets looks on during Game Two of the 2023 NBA Finals on June 4, 2023 at the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2023 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

While Denver's entire roster looks like a completed puzzle, what really makes this squad stand out is its stars. It's not just that Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray are great in their own right; it's that the two-man magic they create makes them even more potent as a pair than they would be as individuals.

"A lot of guys play with each other," Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters. "I think these two guys play for each other and off of each other, and they read each other so well."

In the Game 3 win, Jokić and Murray became the first teammates in NBA Finals history to have triple-doubles in the same game. In fact, they also became the first teammates with 30-point triple-doubles in the same game ever. Together, they tallied 66 points on 24-of-43 shooting (55.8 percent), 31 rebounds and 20 assists.

That has allowed Denver to roll even despite some of its key contributors getting off to slow starts. With Jokić and Murray playing at such a high level, the Nuggets don't need much from their supporting cast. In Game 3, they only had two other players score more than six points: Aaron Gordon, who had 11 on 10 shots, and Christian Braun, a rookie reserve whose 15 points marked his first double-digit effort of the postseason.

Jimmy Butler Needs to Take Over

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MIAMI, FL - JUNE 8: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat talks to the media during 2023 NBA Finals Practice and Media Availability on June 8, 2023 at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2023 NBAE (Photo by Robby Illanes/NBAE via Getty Images)

Jimmy Butler's first-round performance was nothing short of magical. He almost single-handedly willed the eighth-seeded Heat past the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks with numbers video-gamers can only dream about: 37.6 points on 59.7/44.4/70.8 shooting.

Expecting anyone to match those numbers is a lot, and Miami doesn't necessarily need that much production to find its footing. However, it might need Butler to creep a little closer toward that level.

Since the second round—which Butler opened by suffering a nasty looking ankle injury late in Game 1—he has scored 30-plus points once in 15 games. He has failed to crack 20 points four different times, including Game 1 of this series, when he managed only 13 points on 6-of-14 shooting.

Three games into the Finals, Butler is averaging only 20.7 points on 42.1/36.4/90.9 shooting. He has 11 free-throw attempts so far, after taking at least 11 free throws in seven different games of the first three rounds.

That's not going to cut it for Miami—not against this Denver team, and certainly not with Herro, the Heat's third-leading scorer this season, stuck on the sideline with a broken hand.

Butler's competitive edge is incredible, and he has routinely delivered jaw-dropping moments on the playoff stage. Doubting his ability to summon a few more of those performances would be foolish at best.

Still, given the Heat's ticking clock to get back in this series, they need their superstar to work his magic once again for them to have a chance.