Predicting MLB Free-Agent Contracts For Top Names of the 2023-24 Class
Major League Baseball's 2022-23 class of free agents was uncommonly top heavy. Eight players signed for a total amount north of $160 million, including Aaron Judge at $360 million and Trea Turner at $300 million. They headlined a class that hauled in almost $3.8 billion worth of new contracts.
The 2023-24 class is not nearly as star-studded, but it does feature the biggest star of them all, with Shohei Ohtani perhaps on his way to a $500 million deal for the record books.
There are also quite a few starting pitchers who will be in high demand, including Julio Urías, Aaron Nola and Marcus Stroman—the latter of whom is leading all pitchers in bWAR.
For the biggest of the big names hitting free agency this November, we've put together early predictions on how much money could be coming their way, based on a combination of success in the current season, long-term track record and comps of similarly aged/skilled players who recently went through free agency.
Of course, with Othani, there are no comps, so that one will be wild.
Players are listed in ascending order of the total value of their projected contracts.
Statistics current through the start of play Tuesday.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 10
Position Players:
Harrison Bader, CF, New York Yankees
Michael Conforto, OF, San Francisco Giants
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Amed Rosario, SS, Cleveland Guardians
Jorge Soler, DH, Miami Marlins
At long last, Gurriel will be free from the seven-year, $22 million contract he signed in 2016, able to take his lifetime .287 batting average and .807 OPS to the open market. And he's having a pretty impressive walk year for the Diamondbacks. He could sniff a $100 million deal.
Soler turns 32 this offseason and isn't much of a candidate for a mega deal, but with Pete Alonso out for a few weeks, he could mess around and win the NL home run crown.
Rosario is the most intriguing of the bunch, though. He's only 27, and he was solid with 10-plus home runs and 10-plus stolen bases in each of the past three 162-game seasons. But he has been a mess this season.
It will be interesting to see if anyone tries to swoop in with a "buy-low" deal in the eight-year, $100 million range.
Starting Pitchers:
Jordan Montgomery, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Martín Pérez, LHP, Texas Rangers
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Luis Severino, RHP, New York Yankees
Blake Snell, LHP, San Diego Padres
Including Shohei Ohtani, there are five really strong starting pitchers hitting free agency this November who could be the aces of their future pitching staffs.
But there is also one heck of a "second tier" of potential No. 2 starters.
It feels like Snell has been around for forever, but he's still only 30 years old and could be headed for another five-year deal worth double his previous $50 million one.
Rodriguez would have to opt out of the three years and $49 million left on his contract to hit free agency, but with the numbers he was putting up before landing on the IL, it seemed like a no-brainer to go that route in pursuit of a longer and more lucrative deal.
Pérez hasn't quite matched his production from last season, but he's pitching well enough to generate serious interest from any team in need of an arm.
And in addition to Montgomery, the Cardinals also have Jack Flaherty hitting free agency. The 27-year-old got out to a brutal start to the season, but he has been on point over the past month and could end up a very rich man.
Cody Bellinger, CF, Chicago Cubs
2 of 10
2023 Stats: .271/.337/.493, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 9 SB
Let's start things off with the "We have no damn clue" portion of the program, as Cody Bellinger is the ultimate wild-card free agent.
From 2017-19, he hit .278/.369/.559, winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2017 and named the 2019 NL MVP at just 24 years old. He wasn't quite as young as Mike Trout or Bryce Harper when they reached superstardom, but the sky was the limit for Bellinger, who perhaps could have signed a Fernando Tatis Jr.-ish 14-year, $340 million contract at that point.
But from 2020-22, Bellinger hit .203/.272/.376, falling apart to such an unfathomable degree that the Dodgers straight up non-tendered him in November, even with one year of arbitration eligibility still remaining.
For the first six-plus weeks of the current season, he looked a whole lot more like the star he was in his first three seasons than the disappointment he was over the past three seasons.
But then he got hurt.
Again.
Bellinger missed nearly half of the 2021 campaign with calf, hamstring and rib injuries, suffered a more minor leg injury last May and has been out for nearly a month with a knee injury.
So, which version of the still-only-27 Bellinger shows up for the next decade? And can the former Gold Glove center fielder be trusted to stay healthy enough to provide legitimate value on both offense and defense?
If he comes back from this injury relatively soon and recaptures his pre-injury form in a hurry, he could be headed for a massive deal. A figure such as $30 million per season might be pushing it, but a $25 million salary on an eight-year, $200 million deal could be in the cards. (Such a deal may include a club option after the third or fourth season, just in case he falls apart again.)
We'll see how the next three-plus months go, though. Because if he comes back and struggles, there's a whole lot of evidence over the past three years to suggest he shouldn't be paid like an All-Star.
Bellinger is a prime candidate for one of those "two years plus a player option for a third season" deals that the Cubs gave Marcus Stroman in December 2021.
Prediction: Three years, $78 million ($28 million in 2024, $28 million in 2025, $22 million player option in 2026)
Note: Bellinger and the Cubs have a mutual $12 million option for 2024, but there's roughly a negative five percent chance they both opt into that one.
Josh Hader, LHP, San Diego Padres
3 of 10
2023 Stats: 25.1 IP, 15 saves, 1.42 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
In November, Edwin Díaz signed the most lucrative contract for a relief pitcher in MLB history, inking a five-year, $102 million deal to remain with the Mets.
But you know that means Josh Hader is getting at least a $103 million deal this offseason, right?
That's how this whole "contract negotiations" game works.
Dating back to the start of 2018, Hader and Díaz have put up eerily similar numbers. The current Met has been worth 9.4 fWAR, racking up 153 saves with a 2.88 ERA, a 15.34 K/9 and a 1.02 WHIP, while the current Padre has been worth 9.4 fWAR with 147 saves, a 2.70 ERA, a 15.36 K/9 and a 0.91 WHIP.
That includes Hader's extremely uncharacteristic two-month-long implosion last summer in which he allowed 25 earned runs in the span of 13 innings pitched. Take that rough patch out of the equation, and he has a 2.05 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP over the past five-plus years.
And he doesn't even turn 30 until next April, so he should have a good number of strong years left in the tank.
Billy Wagner was still mowing down the competition well into his late 30s, and Aroldis Chapman's bounce-back year at 35 could help motivate Hader's suitors to believe this southpaw will still be a star five or six years from now.
Prediction: Five years, $105 million
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Teoscar Hernández, RF/DH, Seattle Mariners
4 of 10
2023 Stats: .252/.295/.432, 11 HR, 36 RBI, 3 SB
Teoscar Hernández getting a nine-figure contract felt like a much safer bet three months ago, but it still might happen.
Over his final three seasons in Toronto, he hit .283/.333/.519, operating at a 162-game pace of 36 home runs and 114 RBI. In both 2020 and 2021, he was a Silver Slugger, as well as a recipient of votes for AL MVP.
Thus far in Seattle, though, he hasn't been quite the same.
Hernández entered play last Friday with an OPS of just .700, and was tied with Atlanta's Matt Olson for the MLB "lead" in total strikeouts.
But the good news is this is the point in the season when he traditionally heats up.
For whatever reason, May has always been a struggle for Hernández, who has a career OPS of just .670 in that month. But in each of June, July, August and September/October, he is at least a .490 slugger with an OPS north of .810. And in his first nine games played this June, he's batting .394 with a pair of home runs.
If the 30-year-old does his usual thing and stays hot throughout the summer, he should fetch a pretty penny in a free-agency cycle lacking for star power among position players not named Shohei Ohtani or Matt Chapman. (Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto and Harrison Bader could also enter that conversation if they don't spend too much time on the IL the rest of the season.)
Because he's not exactly an asset on defense—and because he'll be more than a year older than Brandon Nimmo was when he signed his deal—Hernández probably won't sniff the eight-year, $162 million mark. But a five- or six-year deal with roughly the same AAV is a reasonable expectation.
Prediction: Five years, $110 million
Marcus Stroman, RHP, Chicago Cubs
5 of 10
2023 Stats: 85.2 IP, 2.42 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7.7 K/9
Marcus Stroman has a $21 million player option for next season, but unless he gets seriously injured, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which he'll be playing out that final year in 2024.
The Cubs are hoping to sign him to a long-term extension before the trade deadline, and long before he reaches free agency. But if that doesn't happen, he might be the biggest name on trade block prior to becoming one of the biggest names available in free agency.
For now, we'll assume no long-term extension and that the 32-year-old righty will hit the open market.
Unlike the pitchers at the top of this list, Stroman is neither a flamethrower nor a strikeout specialist.
He's much more of a Chris Bassitt than a Jacob deGrom.
But don't misinterpret that as some sort of slight or complaint about Stroman's impact in the rotation, as Bassitt received Cy Young votes in two of the past three seasons and is working on his sixth consecutive year with a sub-4.00 ERA. Both he and Stroman have been reliable out-getters for several years running.
And Bassitt—who hit free agency at about 14 months older than Stroman will be this November—got a three-year, $63 million deal this past offseason.
That is the absolute bare minimum for what Stroman will receive this offseason. He'll probably get at least one more year than Bassitt did, and he should fare a good bit better than Bassitt's $21 million AAV. He might even eclipse $30 million AAV if he can maintain his current ERA for another few months.
Prediction: Four years, $112 million
Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
6 of 10
2023 Stats: 81.1 IP, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.3 K/9
Last year was a rough one for Lucas Giolito. He suffered an abdominal injury on Opening Day and missed two weeks of action. He got COVID about three weeks later and just never got into any sort of groove until making six solid starts in September.
He ended up with a 4.90 ERA after three consecutive years with a sub-3.60 ERA and AL Cy Young votes.
The Giolito of yore is back, though, as he has already twice this season gone six hitless innings in a start—once against the Phillies and once against the Yankees.
He did curiously get shelled by both the Pirates and the Tigers. But with eight quality starts and two others in which he allowed four runs before recovering nicely from a rough first inning or two, he has been mostly solid in advance of what will be a summer packed with trade rumors.
Regardless of where he spends the final two months of this season, though, Giolito is sure to be a hot commodity. He turns 29 this summer, and Zack Wheeler was just about the same age during the 2019-20 offseason when he—then with zero All-Star Games and zero Cy Young votes in his career—got a five-year, $118 million contract from the Phillies.
Giolito is already more established, and MLB contracts have inflated so much just in the past four years that he may well sign for even more than Wheeler got.
Exactly how much more will hinge on how well he fares with his TBD contending team this August-October.
Prediction: Five years, $130 million
Julio Urías, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
7 of 10
2023 Stats: 55.1 IP, 4.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.6 K/9
Heading into this season, Julio Urías was the pretty clear first top pitcher (behind Shohei Ohtani) in the "Which free agent will sign the biggest contract this offseason" debate.
Because the lefty was 19 years old when he exceeded rookie limits in 2016, he is hitting free agency at just 27 years of age.
Moreover, he does so as one of the most dominant pitchers in recent years. In fact, of the 50 pitchers who logged at least 450 innings from 2019-22, Urías had the lowest ERA at 2.63, slightly ahead of both Max Scherzer (2.71) and Clayton Kershaw (2.86).
However, this season has not gone according to plan. Urías has spent nearly a month on the IL with a strained hamstring, and he was not himself in the month prior to that injury, posting a 6.25 ERA with 11 home runs allowed over the course of those six starts.
Doubly unfortunate for Urías, this season has not gone according to plan for any of last offseason's biggest pitching investments, either.
Four free-agent pitchers signed deals worth at least $80 million. Jacob deGrom ($185 million) made six starts and is now out for the rest of 2023 and possibly all of 2024. Carlos Rodón ($162 million) has yet to make his 2023 debut. Edwin Díaz ($102 million) will likely miss the entire season. And while Justin Verlander ($86.6 million) is at least pitching, he spent the first month of the campaign on the IL and isn't exactly pitching well, saddled with a 4.85 ERA.
Will the combination of Urías' rough start to the year and the litany of high-priced pitching injuries—see also: Strasburg, Stephen—scare teams away from giving him a mega deal?
Maybe.
Probably.
After all, Gerrit Cole's nine-year, $324 million contract is very much the exception to the rule as far as length of pitching contracts is concerned.
But at just 27, Urías could sign a high AAV five-year deal with hopes of doing it again in 2028. And if Rodón was worth $27 million per year after two solid seasons with his injury history, got to believe Urías will fetch more than that.
Prediction: Five years, $160 million
Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
8 of 10
2023 Stats: 88.0 IP, 4.60 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.6 K/9
One word you're bound to hear a ton when it comes to theoretical offerings for Aaron Nola is "durability," which he has in spades.
He has only missed one start dating back to May 21, 2017, and it wasn't even for an injury. (He got COVID right before the 2021 All-Star break.) His 959.2 innings pitched since the beginning of 2018 leads the majors, with Gerrit Cole (953.1) the only other player north of 900.
And unlike, say, Patrick Corbin or Kyle Gibson, who have remained healthy through frequent rough outings, Nola has been highly effective, racking up a 3.57 ERA and a 10.2 K/9 during that five-and-a-half season span.
Earlier this season, it looked like he had lost his strikeout stuff. Nola went 55.2 innings across his first nine starts with just 43 strikeouts (6.95 K/9), but he has 41 strikeouts in his last 32.1 innings of work (11.4 K/9), including matching a career high with 12 Ks (with one hit allowed) against the Tigers on June 5.
His ERA and FIP are still a bit bloated compared to where he normally resides, but at least he's improving from a mediocre start and not the other way around.
The never-injured Nola is also still reasonably young, just turning 30 last week.
If any pitcher is going to get a seven-year or even an eight-year deal this offseason, it's probably Nola, right?
He won't get the same type of salary that we're projecting Julio Urías to fetch, but the total value of Nola's contract might take the cake.
Prediction: Seven years, $175 million
Matt Chapman, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
9 of 10
2023 Stats: .269/.349/.475, 9 HR, 34 RBI
The market for top-tier third basemen has gotten out of control in recent years.
It started with Nolan Arenado's eight-year, $260 million contract in February 2019. The following offseason, Anthony Rendon signed his now albatross of a seven-year, $245 million deal with the Angels. Atlanta locked up Austin Riley for $212 million in the middle of last season before his cost ballooned even further. And then this past winter, both Rafael Devers (10 years, $313.5 million) and Manny Machado (11 years, $350 million) got their gargantuan extensions finalized.
So, Matt Chapman, come on down.
You're the next contestant on "The Price Is Bonkers."
Since the start of 2018, Chapman has been right up there with the best in the business, posting a 23.6 fWAR which is nearly identical to that of Machado (24.0) and not particularly far behind Arenado (26.1).
Chapman's batting average (.244) during that time hasn't been great, but his defense certainly has been, earning AL Platinum Glove honors in both 2018 and 2019.
And while the average has been just OK, the .801 OPS over the past five-plus years is nothing to shake a stick at.
Chapman just turned 30 in April, and teams have not been shy lately about committing themselves to All-Star infielders well into their late 30s.
At worst, he should get a six-year deal worth at least $25 million per year. Might even see him get a seventh or eighth season and an AAV of over $30 million from one of the frustrated teams that pulls a short straw in the Shohei Ohtani bidding war.
Prediction: Six years, $180 million
Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Los Angeles Angels
10 of 10
2023 Hitting Stats: .291/.362/.593, 20 HR, 50 RBI, 9 SB
2023 Pitching Stats: 76.0 IP, 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
Move over, "Arson" Judge.
It's..."Shoplifting" Ohtani time?
At least among the Big Four U.S. sports, not since LeBron James' (in)famous "Decision" in 2010 has there been a more highly anticipated free-agent signing than the one coming our way this November/December with Ohtani.
Judge got $360 million for nine years this past offseason, but Ohtani is surely headed for more, possibly eclipsing $50 million per season.
Last month, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel polled 26 MLB executives, agents and insiders on what they thought the 28-year-old would make in free agency. One person had the two-way superstar signing a short but very lucrative deal at four years for $240 million ($60 million per season). Everyone else said at least eight years and at least $400 million, with a couple even penciling Ohtani in for at least $600 million.
The average response was 10-and-a-half years for $504.4 million.
Let's round both numbers down slightly and call it 10 years for $500 million.
Sounds reasonable for Ohtani.
If anything, it's probably on the low side.
The big unknown is whether any sort of performance/injury-based incentives might be included in the final deal.
With so many interested suitors, it's unlikely Ohtani will have to settle for a contract structured similarly to the extension Julio Rodríguez signed with Seattle last summer, in which he's guaranteed $209.3 million, but he could make more than twice that much (up to $470 million).
Someone (Dodgers or Mets, most likely) will offer Ohtani $50 million-plus per year with no strings attached—like all those "investors" who have been screwing over would-be first-time home buyers with their all-cash, no-inspection-needed offers on single-family homes over the past few years.
For a unicorn player, though, we might see a unicorn contract.
Maybe Ohtani gets a baseline of $45 million per year, but he makes an additional $1 million for every 10 innings he pitches. Or $40 million per year plus $1 million for every start—which would amount to $67 million or $68 million if he remains on the "five days of rest between starts" program and makes it through the whole season.
Throw in additional incentives for where Ohtani finishes in MVP and Cy Young votes, and you could be talking about $70-$75 million per year if he continues to produce like he has over the past two-plus years.
For our prediction, we're assuming a fully guaranteed contract. But something creative like that could be how we end up with something outrageous like an eight-year deal with a maximum payout of $600 million.
Prediction: 10 years, $520 million
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