NBA Finals 2023: Hot Takes and Top Storylines Heat vs. Nuggets Game 3
Technically, the only thing at stake in Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals is a single-game lead in the series.
In reality, though, this contest feels like it will shape the rest of this championship round.
History loves the chances of tonight's winner, at least. When the NBA Finals have been tied through two games, the Game 3 victor has won the series 32 out of 40 times, according to Nick Simon of DraftKings Sportsbook. That doesn't guarantee that this clash will follow suit, but there is clearly a lot on the line.
Can the Denver Nuggets reclaim home-court advantage and shift momentum back firmly in their favor? Or might the Miami Heat follow their formula of intensity and intelligent play to snag substantial control of this series?
Nuggets Need to Know It's Now or Never
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When the Nuggets have it rolling, they play beautiful basketball. A series of screens, smart cuts and brilliant ball movement yield a seemingly endless stream of high-percentage scoring chances.
The Heat don't play pretty, though, and they don't let anyone else do it, either. They bring the proverbial punch to the face with insatiable amounts of energy and execution.
Beating them requires finding something at least close to the force they play with. The Nuggets have struggled to meet that challenge, particularly in Game 2.
"Let's talk about effort," Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters after Game 2. "I mean, this is the NBA Finals and we're talking about effort. That's a huge concern of mine."
Miami's energy level almost never drops, so Denver's only option is to match it. The Nuggets will need much better activity off the ball, whether that's cutting and moving into open spaces on offense or rotating to the right spots and being better connected through multiple actions on defense.
Whoever Controls the Tempo Will Control the Game
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The Nuggets aren't exactly a run-and-gun team, but they'll push the pedal whenever possible to find easy scoring chances. The Heat, though, litter the road with obstacles like press coverages, zone defenses and expert communication to throw the opposition off-course.
So far, this fight for pace control is heavily in Miami's favor. The teams are averaging only 89.8 possessions per 48 minutes, which would have trailed the regular season's slowest pace (96.3) by a mile, per NBA.com. The Heat are dictating the terms of engagement, and the Nuggets will struggle to win this series if they can't change that.
"We want to play fast; they want to play slow," Malone told reporters. "When you're not getting stops, advantage Miami Heat because now they have their 2-2-1 press back to the zone. We're playing way too slow to try to attack that, which is forcing a lot of late-clock situations for us."
Turning Miami over would be ideal, but the Heat seem almost allergic to giveaways. It's on Denver to hit the throttle anyway. The Nuggets need to identify attacking opportunities off of defensive rebounds or even made baskets.
The Heat have done a masterful job of getting back, but the Nuggets need to push anyway. When Nikola Jokić is motoring down court and surrounded by shooters and slashers, good things usually happen. Denver must generate more of those opportunities.
If It's Close Late, It's the Heat's Game to Lose
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Whenever you watch the Heat, you'll often find yourself wondering what's wrong with the opponent and why they don't look like themselves. Thanks in no small part to coach Erik Spoelstra's elite game-planning and Jimmy Butler's tone-setting tenacity, Miami often takes its opponents miles outside of their comfort zones.
Never is that more obvious than in the fourth quarter, where the Heat have absolutely owned this series. Through two games, they are plus-21 points in the final frame (66-45). Honestly, the rest of the numbers make it seem that margin could be even wider.
Miami owns an astounding 63.9/52.4/90.0 slash line in the fourth quarter, while Denver's is at 44.4/20.0/83.3. The Heat have 17 assists against five turnovers in the frame; the Nuggets are at 12 and six, respectively.
Some of this is just ridiculous shot making on Miami's behalf—Butler, Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson have gone a combined 12-of-20 overall (60 percent) and 6-of-13 from deep (46.2 percent)—but it also speaks to the patience and poise the Heat have shown in these moments.
The Nuggets have two options to seize control in Game 3. They can either dominate the first three quarters to such a degree that it effectively saps the final quarter of any real significance, or they need to clean up their late-game execution.
Miami never shies away from the big moment. If Denver hopes the East's No. 8 seed suddenly remembers it's the East's No. 8 seed, that isn't happening. The Heat are calm, cool and collected on this stage. They can win this series, and they know it.
Denver needs to meet that level of effort and execution. The Heat won't beat themselves. The Nuggets have to win these games on their own.
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