3 Things Miami Heat Must Fix Now to Avoid Quick Finals Exit
If the Miami Heat want their 104-93 loss to the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 of the NBA Finals to be more footnote than harbinger of what's to come, well, they have their work cut out for them.
Losing by 11 points isn't typically evidence of irreversible lopsidery. Game 1s are also a feeling-out process, and Miami was working off much less rest than Denver after a grueling, went-the-distance set against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Still, Thursday night's tilt never felt that close. Not even in the early going of the first quarter, when the Heat and Nuggets were jockeying within striking distance of one another. And most certainly not went Miami briefly cut its deficit to single digits later in the fourth.
The fact is, Denver dominated for most of Game 1, thoroughly and completely, leading by as many as 24 points. And while it isn't entirely clear how much the Heat can actually do to avenge their loss and reshape the series outlook, they can at least tinker with and address issues reasonably within their control.
These three factors may not change, but they are, at minimum, a good place to start.
Scrap the Cody Zeller vs. Nikola Jokić Minutes
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Cody Zeller played fewer than eight minutes in Game 1, a teensy sample size that was nevertheless large enough to prove Miami must change how it's using him.
This isn't to say the Heat should entirely get away from him. Bam Adebayo (probably) can't play all 48 minutes, and trending small comes at a cost against Denver's size.
But Miami definitely needs to forget about playing Zeller during Nikola Jokić's minutes. Head coach Erik Spoelstra tried to buy time with this matchup in both halves, and the experiment went about how you'd expect:
It isn't just about Zeller being ill-equipped to slow Jokić's scoring or playmaking. No one on the planet, and perhaps inside this galaxy, is capable of neutralizing the two-time MVP. But Zeller also gives him room to roam at the other end. The extent to which Jokić drifted away from him on defense was cosmical, verging on comical.
Spotlighting problems without offering solutions rings hollow. And I won't pretend to have the answers. But the Heat defense will be pulled beyond its limits no matter what.
If they aren't going to mirror Adebayo's minutes against Jokić's floor time, they should consider dusting off Kevin Love (DNP - coach's decision) and overextending Haywood Highsmith—two players who pack a more potent offensive punch.
Hitting Makeable Outside Shots
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Don't let the final box score fool you. The Heat have work to do from the outside.
They finished a plus-15 from beyond the arc in Game 1 while shooting a manageable-not-good 33.3 percent on their triples. But it took a 6-of-12 showing from downtown in the fourth quarter to prop up this finish. And three of those makes came inside the final three minutes, when a victory was clearly out of reach.
Miami went 4-of-17 on threes in the first half (23.5 percent) and 7-of-27 overall through the first three quarters (25.9 percent). That isn't going to fly for the rest of this series. It will actually look worse when Denver inevitably shoots over 30 percent from behind the rainbow itself and gets out in transition with more frequency.
Duncan Robinson (1-of-5) and Max Strus (0-of-9) were a combined 1-of-14 from distance. That shouldn't happen again, particularly when factoring in the quality of attempts. Miami's looks weren't picture perfect, but it missed plenty of wide-open jumpers and finished with a better-still-not-great shot distribution thanks to its outside opportunities:
Granted, this it-won't-happen again stuff works both ways. The Nuggets won't see Jamal Murray (2-of-7) and Michael Porter Jr. (2-of-11) go 4-of-18 combined on threes every game. And the Heat can't count on Gabe Vincent (5-of-10), Kyle Lowry (3-of-6) and Highsmith (2-of-4) to knock down 50 percent of their treys each night.
It may be an oversimplification, but Miami needs to hit larger share of its threes before the outcome's been determined.
Generating More Pressure at the Basket and from Jimmy Butler
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Good news: The Heat shot 100 percent at the foul line in Game 1.
Bad news: They only took two free throws.
That number, while historically low, jibes with how Miami ran its offense. Just 19.8 percent of its shot attempts came inside the restricted area, a far cry from its 28.4 percent share in the regular season and the 28.1 percent mark it's posted during these playoffs.
This shot distribution is by design—the Nuggets' design. They are content to sag off and allow the Heat to live from the in-between. Almost 40 percent of Miami's shots were two-point looks outside the restricted area.
Putting more pressure on the basket will help the Heat generate more trips to the charity stripe. That process begins, and ends, with Jimmy Butler. It also extends beyond rim pressure.
Butler needs to be more aggressive at large. Taking fewer than 15 shots in almost 40 minutes doesn't cut it. And he has the power to increase his volume. He skirted too many opportunities in Game 1.
There were possessions in which Butler could have attacked—and actually did attack—Michael Porter Jr. or Jeff Green that ended with early bail-outs. His sprained right ankle is clearly an issue and must be taken into account. Even so, the Heat aren't built to withstand passive scoring performances from their megastar.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
