NBA Finals 2023: Hot Takes and Top Storylines Heat vs. Nuggets Game 1
When the 2023 NBA postseason began, few would have predicted that the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets would be in the NBA Finals.
Denver's presence isn't entirely unexpected, as the Nuggets were the Western Conference's No. 1 seed and were making a fifth consecutive playoff appearance. However, skepticism could be forgiven, as the Nuggets had, until now, never won a conference championship.
The Heat, who secured the No. 8 seed in the play-in tournament, have bested the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, fifth-seeded New York Knicks and second-seeded Boston Celtics.
Miami has proved that it only needed a spot in the dance to get here, and Denver has proved that it is more than just two-time MVP Nikola Jokić. Only one team can hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy, though, and this best-of-seven series kicks off on Thursday night.
Here are a few hot takes, predictions and storylines to follow entering Game 1.
Denver Will Try to Play the 'Underdog' Role
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The Heat needed seven games to outlast Boston, while Denver finished sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers on May 22. If there's a team that should be seeking motivation in the underdog role, it's Miami.
However, Jokić has pushed back against the idea of there being a true favorite in this series.
"That doesn't seem correct, I think. I mean, I think we are not the favorites," he said, per NESN's Jason Ounpraseuth. "I think in the Finals, there are no favorites."
Jokić, Jamal Murray and Co. clearly aren't going into the series believing that it'll be an easy victory. The hot take here, though, is that Denver will take things a step further and try to paint itself as a disrespected underdog team.
Nuggets coach Michael Malone played the disrespect card early in the series against Los Angeles.
"You win Game 1 of the [West finals], and all everybody talked about was the Lakers," Malone said, per The Athletic's Sam Amick. "Let’s be honest. That was the national narrative."
Expect Malone's comments to be echoed if Game 1 is anything other than a blowout Denver victory because, let's face it, teams will take motivation wherever they can find it. Perhaps an us-against-the-world mentality will work for the Nuggets.
Miami Isn't Playing with House Money
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No eighth seed has ever won the NBA Finals—the Knicks reached the Finals in 1999 but lost in five games—so Miami does have a chance to make underdog history.
However, no one should expect the Heat to be content losing in the Finals.
"I just know why Coach Pat [Riley] and Coach Spo [Erik Spoelstra] wanted me to be here," Jimmy Butler said, per Al Butler of UPI. "That's to compete at a high level and win championships. ... Nobody is satisfied. We haven't won anything. We don't play just to win the Eastern Conference. We play to win the whole thing."
Miami last won a title in 2013. However, Spoelstra was the coach then, and several core players—including Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro—were part of the squad that lost to the Lakers in the 2020 Finals.
The Heat have had legitimate championship aspirations since Butler's arrival in 2019, and they'll come in believing that they have the talent to win.
Chemistry, Momentum Will Carry Heat to Game 1 Win
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The Heat won't have Herro, who averaged 20.1 points, 4.2 assists and 5.4 rebounds during the regular season, in Game 1. He still isn't ready to return from a broken hand suffered at the beginning of Miami's first playoff series.
Against a team that features Jokić, Murray, Aaron Gordon and a tremendous supporting cast, Herro's prolonged absence could be an issue. However, the Heat have been playing incredible complementary basketball without him, thanks to Spoelstra's coaching and strong contributions from the likes of Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson and Max Strus.
Miami is also riding a wave of momentum and intensity after finishing off the Celtics on Monday. This could allow the Heat to get off to a fast start against a Nuggets team that has been idle for 10 days.
The prediction here is that Denver comes out a bit flat in Game 1, struggles to contain playoff Butler and allows Miami to steal away the series' home-court advantage.
Whether a hot start is enough for the Heat to win it all is another story, though. The Nuggets have also been playing tremendous team basketball, and they have one of the game's best overall players in Jokić. Coming off more than a week's rest, the Nuggets are also the fresher team and could ultimately gain the advantage in a drawn-out series.
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