What Everyone Missed About the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat are the last two teams standing for the NBA Finals. Both teams, valid or not, have felt overlooked during the course of the season.
So the question stands: What did everyone miss about these teams?
Both franchises are powered by stars. One is a two-time MVP at the peak of his powers; the other raised his game, once again, in the playoffs with a team forged in fire.
The Nuggets have been the most disrespected No. 1 seed in a long time. Each step they took forward it seemed experts kept finding reasons to doubt them, or ignore them altogether. According to FanDuel, they entered the playoffs with just the sixth-best title odds (+1100), and they were third out West behind both the Phoenix Suns (+460) and Golden State Warriors (+750).
The Heat had doubters for very different reasons. They struggled all season and needed the play-in tournament just to get into the playoffs. And even the play-in was shaky. The Atlanta Hawks dismantled the Heat in the first play-in contest, and Miami was down late in the fourth quarter of a play-in elimination game against the Chicago Bulls.
Continuity Is Key
The first thing doubters and casuals have missed more than anything is the continuity both teams possess. The core for both have been together for years, longer than most teams.
Michael Malone has been head coach in Denver since the 2015-16 season. Erik Spoelstra has been around Miami even longer taking the reins back in 2008.
A coach's life span with a team is significantly shorter these days. Just look at the last four NBA champions: 2022 Golden State Warriors (Steve Kerr), 2021 Milwaukee Bucks (Mike Budenholzer), 2020 Los Angeles Lakers (Frank Vogel), 2019 Toronto Raptors (Nick Nurse).
Of the bunch, only Steve Kerr remains with the same team.
Truth is, it wouldn't have been far-fetched for either organization to let go of their coaches at some point during their tenures. Especially when LeBron James asked for Pat Riley if he still had the coaching itch.
Instead of replacing Spoelstra, Riley backed him, and the rest has been Heat history.
Also, think about all the Nuggets' injuries over the years, and the resulting early playoff exits. It wouldn't have been surprising for Malone to be fired after the disappointments of the last two seasons considering how quickly a head coach can be shown the exit these days.
The Nuggets chose to stay with Malone and are reaping the benefits. But coaching isn't the only aspect of continuity here in play.
In Miami, four of their players in this Finals run were with the team in the bubble, the last Heat finals team. In fact, there were five if we count Tyler Herro, who is expected to target Game 3 for his return.
On the Denver side, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr were all key members of their last conference finals teams, also in the bubble. Aaron Gordon was added the following season via midseason trade, and he has fit in perfectly over the last two-and-a-half seasons.
Stop Overlooking Denver's Offense
On the court, the Nuggets' offense never got the spotlight. All the focus was set on their defense: How will they react when teams attack Jokic or Murray?
It was a fair question considering Denver finished 15th in defensive rating, But no one talked about the more glamorous side of the ball, where Jokic and Co. were doing quite glamorous things.
The Nuggets finished the 2022-23 season fifth in offensive rating. They were first in field-goal percentage, fourth in three-point percentage, and second in assists.
That is the offensive profile the tweet below is referring to.
But again, it was their defense that was the problem and what was supposed to hold them back. That's why Phoenix, who had a total of eight Kevin Durant games, was favored higher than them at the start of the playoffs. Remember: the sixth-seeded Warriors, with their 11 total road wins, also had better odds.
The Nuggets were overlooked for perceived flaws, but everyone else's were ignored.
Stop Overlooking Miami's 3-Ball
Miami gave everyone good reasons to ignore their title possibilities. Very good reasons, actually, as it was dead-last 30th in points per game, 26th in field-goal percentage and 27th in three-point percentage this season.
The three-point shooting was most confusing. The Heat were the best three-point shooting team the previous year, so a dip like that with largely the same team made no sense.
After the Heat struggled so poorly from three most of the season, no one noticed that after March 1st, Miami crawled to ninth in three-point shooting.
Shooters started to find their rhythm, and the Heat started to warm up. Now they are the best three-point shooting team in the playoffs at 39.0 percent from three on 33.6 attempts per game.
It helped, of course, that the majority of Miami's shooters apart from Duncan Robinson are at worst average defenders. Caleb Martin is shooting 43.6 percent from three and the Heat have a 108.3 defensive rating when he is on the floor. The defensive rating when Gabe Vincent is on the floor is 108.6, and he's shooting 39 percent from three.
The way Miami is built, it doesn't always have to sacrifice defense for shooting.
Stop Overlooking the 2023 NBA Finals
Everyone missed on these teams.
It was understandable to miss on the Heat since they grew into themselves the final month-and-a-half of the season. And the Nuggets were simply overlooked, since their past playoff failures were held against them, even though injuries played a massive role.
But we missed other things, too. "Playoff Jimmy" surprised the East with his return, going from 22.9 points per game in the regular season to 28.5 points in the playoffs.
Jamal Murray has proved that his scoring was not a bubble mirage.
Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent are stepping up when called upon. And Michael Porter Jr.'s defense has been improving all season long.
All things everyone missed for the most part.
And now, both teams will meet in the Finals on Thursday night—despite hearing from doubters all season long.
Mo Dakhil spent six years with the Los Angeles Clippers and two years with the San Antonio Spurs as a video coordinator, as well as three years with the Australian men's national team. Follow him on Twitter, @MoDakhil_NBA.
