Fact or Fiction: Which NBA Offseason Rumors Are We Buying?
Another week has brought us a fresh set of NBA offseason rumors.
From Josh Hart's projected contract, the Portland Trail Blazers' plan for their No. 3 overall pick, Zach LaVine's future with the Chicago Bulls and more, there's plenty to break down and make sense of.
It's time to play fact or fiction with the latest NBA buzz.
Raptors Still Don't Know If They'll Be Buyers or Sellers This Summer
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The Toronto Raptors, wading through .500 waters during the regular season, decided to neither sell off players nor go all-in at the trade deadline.
Fast forward nearly four months and the Raptors still aren't sure what direction to go in and don't even have a head coach after dismissing Nick Nurse following five seasons.
As ESPN's Brian Windhorst stated on the Hoop Collective Podcast, "So I think you have a fascinating situation happening in Toronto right now. And the reason it is fascinating is in talking to folks that have been in touch with the Raptors recently, the Raptors don't seem to know which direction they're going to take. Whether or not they are going to focus on re-signing Fred VanVleet, extending Pascal Siakam, potentially making other roster upgrades. Or whether or not they're going to send Fred VanVleet in a sign-and-trade, maybe investigate moving other players be it OG Anunoby or Pascal Siakam."
This is a little concerning, especially considering the Raptors' offseason began over a month ago. While Toronto can't control what players like VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr. and Jakob Poeltl do in free agency, they should have a feel for what kind of contract will be needed to keep these players on the roster.
The Raptors could also be playing coy with the rest of the league.
You like Pascal Siakam? Yeah, we'll probably extend him, but you can still make an offer. We're definitely keeping Anunoby, unless, which pick do you have in the first round again?
When going through the interview process with head coaching candidates, the whole are-we tanking-or-are-we-trying-to-win-a-championship talk has to be the first thing people like Steve Nash, J.J. Redick and others asked about.
The Raptors have to know internally what the plan is for the 2023 offseason, even if they don't want to make them public just yet.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction. Toronto may not want to share their plans yet, but there's been enough time to make a decision within the organization.
Josh Hart to Get $18 Million a Year on New Contract
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The trade for Josh Hart was one of the 2023 deadline's better moves, as the New York Knicks finished the regular season 17-8 with Hart in the rotation as they clinched the fifth seed and eventually advanced to the second round of the East playoffs.
Hart can become an unrestricted free agent this offseason and is expected to sign a new deal with the Knicks that approaches $18 million annually, according to Yahoo! Sports' Jake Fischer.
While Hart may never be an All-Star, this kind of contract actually seems like a bargain given how well he fits into his new home.
The 28-year-old is in the prime of his career and put up 10.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.4 steals and only turned the ball over 1.5 times a contest. He did this almost exclusively as a reserve while shooting 58.6 percent overall and 51.9 percent from three, playing excellent defense across multiple positions. Hart improved the Knicks by a whopping 15.9 points per 100 possessions, a mark that ranked in the 99th percentile according to Cleaning the Glass.
Giving Hart a new four-year, $72 million deal would be one of the best moves the Knicks could make this season, especially since his real-time contract was valued at $20.1 million this year, per ProFitX.com.
Hart can be a starter or sixth man for this Knicks team moving forward as the team continues to build around Jalen Brunson. Giving him $18 million a year will only look better as time moves on.
Fact or Fiction: Fact. Hart is easily worth this kind of deal and is a perfect fit with these Knicks.
Blazers Willing to Trade No. 3 Overall Pick for "Pretty Elite Player"
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The Portland Trail Blazers continue to ride the Damian Lillard train, meaning all young players and draft picks could become available in trade talks this summer.
This includes the No. 3 overall pick in the draft owned by the Blazers, which ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski says Portland would be willing to part with for a "pretty elite player" in return.
There are a few things to unpack here.
First, does this plan change depending on who exactly is available at No. 3?
After the San Antonio Spurs snatch up Victor Wembanyama, all eyes will be on the Charlotte Hornets at No. 2. If they don't like the potential pairing of Scoot Henderson and LaMelo Ball and Henderson falls to the Blazers at three, the level of player that's offered in a trade to Portland could certainly increase. The Trail Blazers could also pivot, keep Henderson, and shop other young guards like Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe instead.
Second, what classifies as a pretty elite player?
Is this a borderline All-Star like O.G. Anunoby or Mikal Bridges? A two-time All-NBA team member in Pascal Siakam? Somewhere in between? It's difficult to predict, especially since we don't know who will be available at No. 3 just yet.
One thing the Blazers absolutely cannot do is settle. Saying you're all-in on building around Lillard only to trade one of the highest draft picks in history for a player like John Collins would cripple the franchise and keep them at a play-in level in the West.
Portland should keep the pick unless an elite player is truly available via trade.
Fact or Fiction: Fact. All signs point to the Blazers continuing to build around Lillard. Portland needs to get a really good return for the pick or else keep it, however.
Mavericks Not Interested in D'Angelo Russell Sign-and-Trade
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The love triangle between Kyrie Irving, the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers will once again give us plenty of content this summer, as the All-Star point guard and unrestricted free agent gets to seemingly choose between a bigger contract or joining LeBron James and a Lakers team that just reached the West Finals.
In the middle of this drama is D'Angelo Russell, the current Lakers point guard who also becomes a free agent.
The only way for Irving to get paid a max or near-max deal and still go to Los Angeles is via a sign-and-trade deal, one that most easily works if Russell agrees to his own sign-and-trade, something he previously accepted when leaving the Brooklyn Nets for the Golden State Warriors in 2019.
If Irving, Russell and the Lakers all agreed to a trade, there's still one party who would have to sign off: the Mavericks.
According to Marc Stein on the Stein Line Substack, this is a no go, with Dallas possessing no interest in a double sign-and-trade that swaps Irving for Russell.
The Mavericks' unwillingness to orchestrate such a deal is understandable. Irving is the far superior player who has thrived in the postseason (23.3 points, 4.8 assists, 39.3 percent shooting from three) while hitting the series-winning shot in Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals.
Compare this to Russell, who was benched in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals by the Lakers and has averaged just 14.1 points on 38.9 percent shooting overall in his 27 career playoff appearances.
Despite not wanting to make a deal involving the two, Dallas can't afford to rule it out just yet.
After all, getting Russell back in return (along with some other likely incentives including the Lakers' 2029 first-round pick) is better than losing Irving for nothing, which is entirely possible. Irving could take a pay cut down to around $30 million to join the Lakers or go sign a short-term deal with a team with max cap space like the Houston Rockets.
If Irving tells the Mavericks he's going to leave no matter what, Dallas' best bet would be to work out a sign-and-trade that nets them something in return, even if this means a package based around Russell.
Fact or Fiction: Fiction. The Mavs can't rule out anything yet, especially if Irving threatens to leave for nothing in free agency.
"Skepticism" that Zach LaVine Finishes Contract in Chicago
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Zach LaVine just finished his sixth season in Chicago, has been named an All-Star two of the past three years and is still just 28 years old.
Despite all this, there's a great deal of cloudiness surrounding his future with the Bulls after a disappointing 40-42 record this season.
According to K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago on the Bulls Talk Podcast, there's "quite a bit of skepticism" around the league that LaVine will play out the entirety of his contract with the Bulls.
LaVine signed a five-year, $215.2 million max deal last summer, although the final season is a player option valued at $49.9 million in 2026-27. This means that LaVine could become a free agent again in three years during the summer of 2026.
Chicago hasn't shopped LaVine to this point, but can anyone on the roster really feel safe after such a stinker of a season? Nikola Vučević is an unrestricted free agent, DeMar DeRozan is entering the final year of his contract and Coby White can leave if the Bulls don't match an offer sheet for him this summer.
With Lonzo Ball possibly missing all of next season as well following a third knee surgery, Chicago could easily decide to shop LaVine, DeRozan and others and reboot the whole system. After their first-round pick was conveyed to the Orlando Magic this year, the Bulls own their first rounder in 2024 and get to keep their 2025 first (owed to the San Antonio Spurs) if it falls within the top-10 picks overall.
Whether Chicago shops LaVine this offseason in a rebuild or if he grows tired of losing on a mediocre Bulls roster and requests a trade, neither path is keeping the former Slam Dunk Contest champion in town for long.
The skepticism that LaVine lasts three more years in Chicago is deserved.
Fact or Fiction: Fact. The Bulls are in a bad place, with a rebuild looking inevitable. LaVine will be traded within the next three seasons.
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