NBA Offseason Predictions from Latest News and Rumors
Some embarrassing endings to the season have already led to the dismissal of several NBA coaches, with plenty of player movement sure to follow this summer.
From Kyrie Irving's future, to James Harden's potential pay day, to Deandre Ayton's next home and more, rumors are already beginning to swirl.
Based on recent reports, it's time to make some informed predictions about the future of some of today's stars.
Austin Reaves Too Expensive for Lakers to Keep?
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One of the best stories of the 2023 playoffs has been Austin Reaves, a former undrafted, two-way-contract guy who's now become the Los Angeles Lakers' third-best player.
The 24-year-old is averaging 16.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.7 assists and shooting 44.2 percent from three while taking ball-handling responsibilities off of LeBron James. Of course, the timing of this couldn't be better for Reaves, who becomes a restricted free agent this summer.
As Marc Stein wrote on The Stein Line Substack, "Austin Reaves market…not clear yet. But there will definitely be a team or two that offers more than the Lakers want to spend. There will be at least one."
This offer could come from a number of young teams with cap space that need a do-it-all combo guard, a list that includes the Houston Rockets, Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs.
The Lakers can only offer Reaves a four-year deal worth just over $50 million, but they can match any deal he receives as a free agent.
Given how well he has played, there's no way he should accept a deal that averages less than $13 million per season, choosing to sign an offer sheet with another team instead.
It may put more pressure on the Lakers' salary cap down the road, but L.A. simply can't afford to lose Reaves, especially considering how bad D'Angelo Russell has been lately.
Reaves has become a good starting NBA player, one that the Lakers have needed to reach the Western Conference Finals. One way or another, they'll pay him what it takes to stay.
Prediction: Reaves signs an offer sheet above $50 million with another team, one the Lakers will match.
Deandre Ayton to the Dallas Mavericks?
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Deandre Ayton should be one of the most likely stars to switch teams this postseason, as his role with the Suns shrunk mightily in the playoffs with Kevin Durant on board.
There's still a lot of untapped potential here, as Ayton is 24 and could eventually become more of a three-point threat and rim protector. The skill set is there to improve upon his 16.7 point-per-game average in five years in Phoenix as well.
The Mavericks could use a center, especially with both Christian Wood and Dwight Powell hitting free agency this summer. They also have salaries to match and can trade the No. 10 overall pick in the draft.
Despite this seemingly good fit between Ayton and Dallas, Marc Stein wrote on The Stein Line substack that, "I don't get any sense at this juncture that Ayton is Dallas' top trade target."
If Kyrie Irving re-signs with the Mavs, he and Luka Dončić should continue to dominate the ball, leaving Ayton in a similar position to the one he currently finds himself in with Durant and Devin Booker.
If looking for a new home and a better fit, somewhere Ayton's ability can be maximized behind a talented point guard and few other scoring options, look no further than the team he actually signed with last summer.
The Indiana Pacers remain a perfect fit for Ayton, with Myles Turner looking like a strong defensive, three-point shooting piece for the Suns as well.
The two sides should work on a deal this offseason once trade restrictions have lifted on July 14.
Prediction: Dallas sniffs around an Ayton trade, but Phoenix ultimately sends him to Indiana instead.
James Harden to Get $200 Million?
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James Harden is set to become one of the NBA's best free agents this summer, although we don't yet know where he'll end up, or if he will prioritize winning or his wallet.
ESPN's Brian Windhorst said there is "an appetite" around the NBA for the 33-year-old landing a four-year contract worth more than $200 million.
Of course, the two leading contenders to give Harden this kind of money are his current Philadelphia 76ers club and former employer, the Houston Rockets, who project to have more cap space than any NBA team this summer.
Whoever decides to give Harden this kind of money at this stage in his career is making a monumental investment, and also making an incredible mistake.
While the 10-time All-Star can still provide some dazzling performances (45 points in a Game 1 win over the Boston Celtics), he can also disappear at times (11.0 points, 25.9 percent shooting overall, 9.0 percent from three in Games 6 and 7).
Harden will also turn 34 in August and has never been in elite shape. His game doesn't project to age as gracefully as someone like LeBron James, and ProFitX.com had his real-time contract valued at $37.3 million this season, a far cry from the $50 million annual average he'd be making on a new four-year, $200 million deal.
No one should be paying Harden anything close to this, but it only takes one desperate team to get a deal done.
For now, it feels like the Rockets will be the ones overpaying for Harden's services. While the final number may be a bit south of $200 million, expect Houston to foolishly pay up.
Prediction: Harden signs with the Rockets this summer for close to $200 million, a contract that will almost immediately be one of the NBA's worst.
Can a Team Pry Mikal Bridges Away from the Brooklyn Nets?
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All eyes will be on the Brooklyn Nets this summer, a team that has stockpiled three-and-D wings and has a collection of other talented players who can help title contenders.
The best of the bunch is Mikal Bridges, who put up 26.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steals and shot 37.6 percent from three for the Nets following a trade from the Phoenix Suns. At just under $70 million owed to him over the next three years, he looks like one of the NBA's best bargains as well.
Teams will undoubtedly call, as they should given the precarious state of this Nets team. The Portland Trail Blazers, owners of the No. 3 overall pick in the draft and some intriguing young talent, desperately need a two-way wing like the 26-year-old to pair with Damian Lillard.
Despite what could become a mega offer, Alex Schiffer of The Athletic reported that the "Nets aren't interested" in trading Bridges to the Blazers.
The Nets have no incentive to tank next season, given their unprotected 2024 first-round pick is owed to the Houston Rockets via the James Harden trade. Trading Bridges for picks and young talent ultimately helps Houston, not Brooklyn.
Keeping Bridges is the best choice for now.
Prediction: Brooklyn receives some significant offers for Bridges but refuses to trade him this offseason.
Kyrie Irving Getting the Max?
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Both Kyrie Irving and the Dallas Mavericks have leverage to work with heading into free agency.
Or, neither of them do, depending on how you look at the situation.
Irving can threaten to leave Dallas as an unrestricted free agent unless he gets the contract he wants. After watching Jalen Brunson walk out the door for nothing a year ago, he knows the Mavs can't afford to lose yet another star guard, especially after giving up a future unprotected first-round pick, Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith to get him.
The Mavericks also know that teams won't exactly be fighting over parking spaces in Irving's driveway to back up their Brink's trucks, considering he's averaged just 48.3 games played over the past six years due to injuries, a suspension and other off-court issues. After he was granted permission to seek a new contract in sign-and-trade deals by the Brooklyn Nets last summer, he found the market bare and had to settle for his $37 million player option instead.
For all the dancing that could take place between the two parties, there may actually be an agreement in place.
As one source told Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus, "I hear they had a handshake deal before the trade [with the Brooklyn Nets]. And Kyrie wouldn't have said yes to anything less than the max."
A max contract for the 31-year-old would mean five years and $272 million from the Mavs. A four-year deal (the most he could receive from another team) would cost Dallas $210.1 million.
Both seem like absurd amounts to pay someone who's been as unavailable as Irving the past six years, but the Mavs may not have much choice. With D'Angelo Russell struggling with the Los Angeles Lakers this postseason (and being moved to the bench in Game 4), L.A. could make a strong push for Irving while letting Russell walk.
Dallas has put itself in a bad position yet again. Expect Irving to get a max or near-max deal from a desperate Mavericks team this summer.
Prediction: Irving signs a four-year max deal to stay with the Mavs.
LeBron James Considering Retirement?
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While we've seen the last of LeBron James during the 2022-23 season, could this be the end of his legendary career overall?
Bleacher Report's Chris Haynes writes that, "retirement is under consideration" for James, who just finished his 20th professional season.
"I got a lot to think about," James said post-game. "Just personally, with me moving forward with the game of basketball, I got a lot to think about."
Is this really James questioning his basketball mortality, or a message to the Los Angeles Lakers that upgrades better be coming this summer?
After all, James is under contract for next year for $46.9 million and has a player option for $50.7 million in 2024-25. That's a lot of money to walk away from, even for James.
Retiring just one year before his son Bronny can enter the NBA draft seems highly unlikely as well, especially considering how much James has spoken out about his desire to play together.
While he may no longer be one of the best players in the entire league, James still averaged 24.5 points, 9.9 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks this postseason while playing nearly 39 minutes a night. Even at 38, he looks to have a number of productive years left.
James may indeed be considering retirement, but don't expect him to actually hang up his sneakers just yet.
Prediction: James comes back for what will be his final year as Laker before opting out and signing with the team that drafts Bronny in 2024.
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