PGA Championship 2023: Latest Expert Predictions for Rory McIlroy, Top Stars
The second major of the 2023 PGA season, the PGA Championship, is nearly upon us. Beginning on Thursday, several of the world's best golfers will compete for one of the sport's biggest prizes—not to mention a large chunk of the $15 million total payout.
Many of golf's more notable names will be absent from the tournament. Tiger Woods is out following ankle surgery, while last year's runner-up, Will Zalatoris, is out following back surgery.
However, the PGA Championship will feature plenty of star power. The Masters winner Jon Rahm will be in the field along with Rory McIlroy, who is looking to rebound after missing the cut at the Players Championship and The Masters.
Below, you'll find a look at scheduling information, the latest odds and some expert predictions for the weekend's top competitors.
2023 PGA Championship
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When: May 18-21
Where: Oak Hill Country Club in Pittsford, New York
TV: ESPN (Rounds 1 & 2), CBS (Rounds 3 & 4)
Live Stream: ESPN+ (All Rounds), Paramount+ (Rounds 3 & 4)
Prize Payout: $15 million, $2.7 million to the winner
Early Favorites
Scottie Scheffler 7-1
Jon Rahm 15-2
Rory McIlroy 14-1
Xander Schauffele 16-1
Patrick Cantlay 16-1
Brooks Koepka 22-1
Tony Finau 22-1
Jason Day 28-1
Collin Morikawa 28-1
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Rory McIlroy
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A potential redemption arc for McIlroy will be one of the biggest storylines to follow over the weekend. The 34-year-old hasn't played particularly well as of late—he recently tied for 47th at the Wells Fargo Championship after missing two successive cuts—but could put his struggles aside with a win in the Rochester suburb of Pittsford this weekend.
McIlroy hasn't won a major since claiming victory in both the Open Championship and the PGA Championship in 2014.
Fortunately, McIlroy will have a sort of home-course advantage this weekend. His wife, Erica, is from Rochester, and McIlroy is a member of Oak Hill Country Club.
"I'm excited to go and play a major championship in what feels like almost a second home to me," McIlroy said, per Neil McLeman of The Mirror.
Familiarity with the course should aid McIlroy tremendously as he looks to return to the form he had earlier this year when he tied for second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March.
According to Alex Miceli of SI Golf, McIlroy could gain an additional advantage from averse weather conditions.
"He seems to be a good mudder, so even though he’s not necessarily on his game, he may be the one to take advantage of the conditions."
Fans should expect to see him in contention on Sunday, though the experts at BettingPros believe he's not a sound pick at the current odds:
"The odds have grown longer on McIlroy in recent days, but it's wise to continue fading him at his current price."
Jon Rahm
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Rahm is among the early betting favorites, and that shouldn't come as a surprise. He won The Masters, claimed second at the Mexico Open and remains atop the World Golf Rankings heading into the weekend.
If Rahm can win this weekend, he'll be an Open Championship victory away from a career grand slam. He recently became the first European player to win both the U.S. Open and The Masters.
"Out of all the accomplishments and the many great players that have come before me, to be the first to do something like that, it's a very humbling feeling," Rahm said, per Sal Maiorana of the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle.
It's hard to imagine Rahm not being in the mix at the end of the tournament given his recent string of play. He's earned four wins and eight top-10 finishes in 12 starts this year. The only tournament in which he finished outside of the top 15 was the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Rahm also withdrew from the Players Championship.
Fans should expect Rahm to be battling until the end, though winning back-to-back majors is an extremely rare occurrence. Jordan Spieth was the last player to achieve that feat, doing so in 2015.
Golf betting and fantasy expert Sia Nejad is "fading" Rahm at his current odds, according to CBS Sports. Rahm having just one top-10 finish in his past four starts at the PGA Championship is part of the reason why.
Greg Vara of Rotowire believes that fellow favorite Scottie Scheffler will ultimately outlast Rahm.
"There’s nothing to dislike about Rahm; I expect him to be a factor all the way until the end, but I think it’s Scheffler’s turn this week," Vara wrote.
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Brooks Koepka
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One of several LIV golfers slated to compete this weekend, Brooks Koepka is one of the biggest stars from the PGA's rival league. He may also be back in top form after a strong showing at The Masters.
Koepka struggled for much of 2022 before defecting to LIV in June. However, he won the LIV Invitational in Orlando, took third at the LIV Invitational in Singapore and finished just behind Rahm at Augusta last month—tied with Phil Michelson at eight-under. He tied for fifth at the LIV tournament in Tulsa, an outing he used as a tune-up for the PGA Championship.
"Yeah, this week just trying to make sure I tune everything up, get ready for next week. I like the majors. I like the discipline, the mental grind that comes with it all, the focus, and just use this week to get ready," Koepka said, per Joshua Lees of The Mirror.
It should be noted that Koepka also has a history of good results at this tournament. He won the PGA Championship in 2018 and 2019 and tied for second in 2021.
John Hayes of The Athletic believes Koepka has what it takes to make a serious run.
"After what Koepka did at The Masters and his history at the PGA Championship, this could be another week of Brooksy," Hayes wrote.
It would be a minor surprise if Koepka isn't playing for the win on Sunday.
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