Re-Drafting Yordan Alvarez and the 2016 MLB Draft Including International Prospects
What if Major League Baseball were like the National Basketball Association and international players were part of the annual draft process rather than the current free-for-all system where players go to the highest bidder within the confines of a club's predetermined bonus pool?
That's the hypothetical scenario we set out to explore with our new redraft series.
This time around we turn our attention to 2016, which had an international class that featured Yordan Alvarez, Randy Arozarena and brothers Yuli Gurriel and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who all defected from Cuba.
They join a draft pool originally headlined by Mickey Moniak (PHI), Nick Senzel (CIN), Ian Anderson (ATL), Riley Pint (COL) and Corey Ray (MIL) as the top five picks.
You can catch up on our redraft series here: 2017
1. Philadelphia Phillies: DH/OF Yordan Alvarez
1 of 26
Actual Pick: OF Mickey Moniak
Alvarez's Actual Draft Position: International signing (LAD, $2 million bonus)
It's easy to forget Yordan Alvarez began his pro career in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization, signing for a $2 million bonus on June 15, 2016, after he defected from Cuba.
Less than two months later, the Dodgers traded him to the Houston Astros in exchange for relief pitcher Josh Fields, which is shaping up to be one of the most lopsided trades in recent MLB history.
The 25-year-old has done nothing but hit since exploding onto the scene to win American League Rookie of the Year honors in 2019, posting a 162 OPS+ and 14.6 WAR in 399 games. He finished third in AL MVP voting last season when he batted .306/.406/.613 with 37 home runs and 97 RBI in 135 games.
It was tempting to go with Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber in this No. 1 spot, as slotting one of them alongside Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola would make for a lethal rotation, but Alvarez is a franchise cornerstone and one of the game's elite offensive players.
2. Cincinnati Reds: RHP Corbin Burnes
2 of 26
Actual Pick: 3B Nick Senzel
Burnes' Actual Draft Position: No. 111 overall (Milwaukee Brewers)
The Cincinnati Reds would no doubt love to add Yordan Alvarez to the middle of their lineup, but having their pick of Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber is a nice consolation prize.
Both pitchers have won a Cy Young Award, and both went the college route before starting pro ball, so age is not a deciding factor.
The fact that Burnes has a 0.95 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 26 strikeouts in 19 career innings at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park served as the tiebreaker in what was truly a coin toss.
The bigger question is whether he would still be wearing a Reds uniform if he were drafted by the team, or if the Reds would have flipped him for prospects like they did with Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle last summer.
3. Atlanta Braves: RHP Shane Bieber
3 of 26
Actual Pick: RHP Ian Anderson
Bieber's Actual Draft Position: No. 122 overall (Cleveland Guardians)
Shane Bieber went 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 134.2 innings during his junior season at UC Santa Barbara to raise his draft stock, but he still didn't hear his name called until the fourth round.
The Atlanta Braves took three straight high school pitchers at the top of their 2016 draft class, cutting a below-slot $4 million deal with Ian Anderson (No. 3 overall) to help facilitate above-slot deals for Joey Wentz (No. 40 overall) and Kyle Muller (No. 44 overall).
This redraft gives the Braves the rotation centerpiece they hoped one or more of those guys would develop into, and it perhaps keeps them from having to shell out significant money to sign veteran Charlie Morton.
.png?w=256)
4. Colorado Rockies: 1B Pete Alonso
4 of 26
Actual Pick: RHP Riley Pint
Alonso's Actual Draft Position: No. 64 overall (New York Mets)
Can you imagine Pete Alonso playing 81 games per year at Coors Field?
The University of Florida standout hit .374/.469/.659 with 14 home runs and 60 RBI in 58 games during his junior year with the Gators, yet he slipped to the second round of the 2016 draft because of the risk often associated with right-handed-hitting first-base-only prospects.
He reached Double-A in his first full professional season, hit Triple-A the following year and made his MLB debut in 2019 with a record-setting 53-homer, 120-RBI campaign.
Adding that production to a 2019 Colorado Rockies team for which Nolan Arenado (131 OPS+, 41 HR, 118 RBI), Trevor Story (120 OPS+, 35 HR, 85 RBI) and Charlie Blackmon (125 OPS+, 32 HR, 86 RBI) were all hitting at a high level would have created an offensive juggernaut.
5. Milwaukee Brewers: SS Bo Bichette
5 of 26
Actual Pick: OF Corey Ray
Bichette's Actual Draft Position: No. 66 overall (Toronto Blue Jays)
With a lot of moving parts to his swing, Bo Bichette was viewed as a boom-or-bust prospect coming out of high school.
Seven years later, he is one of the most productive hitters in baseball. In this redraft, he would become the best homegrown shortstop to come out of the Milwaukee Brewers organization since Robin Yount.
The 25-year-old has led the AL in hits each of the past two seasons, and he is pacing the league again this year with 52 knocks in 37 games while batting .329/.369/.538 with 17 extra-base hits and 1.8 WAR.
The Brewers traded for Willy Adames in 2021 to address a revolving door at shortstop after top prospect Orlando Arcia failed to develop into a long-term answer. This redraft would have plugged that hole years ago.
6. Oakland Athletics: OF Randy Arozarena
6 of 26
Actual Pick: LHP A.J. Puk
Arozarena's Actual Draft Position: International signing (STL, $1.25 million bonus)
The second international player off the board in this hypothetical redraft, Randy Arozarena spent time in the Mexican League after defecting from Cuba before signing with the St. Louis Cardinals on Aug. 1, 2016.
He made his MLB debut with the Cardinals in 2019 but never received an extended look in the majors before they traded him to the Tampa Bay Rays in a deal that brought top pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore to St. Louis.
In 2020, he was a postseason hero before even exhausting his rookie eligibility, and the following year he won AL Rookie of the Year honors with a 20-homer, 20-steal, 3.9-WAR campaign. He has built on that performance the past two seasons and is one of baseball's top power-speed threats.
Considering the Oakland Athletics have traded 2016 first-round pick A.J. Puk, as well as 2016 third-round pick Sean Murphy, they would almost certainly have found Arozarena a new home by now as well.
7. Miami Marlins: OF Bryan Reynolds
7 of 26
Actual Pick: LHP Braxton Garrett
Reynolds' Actual Draft Position: No. 59 overall (San Francisco Giants)
Bryan Reynolds' drop out of the first round was one of the biggest surprises of the 2016 draft after he hit .330/.461/.603 with 32 extra-base hits in 62 games during his junior year at Vanderbilt.
The San Francisco Giants walked away with one of the biggest steals of the draft, but they mortgaged his upside in an ill-advised deal to acquire Andrew McCutchen from the Pittsburgh Pirates prior to the 2018 season.
Reynolds has blossomed into an All-Star and one of the best players on a rebuilding Pirates team. Prior to signing an eight-year, $106.75 million extension in April, he was a popular subject of trade rumors.
The Marlins were on a long list of teams interested in trading for the 28-year-old, and this gives them a chance to draft him outright.
8. San Diego Padres: RHP Zac Gallen
8 of 26
Actual Pick: RHP Cal Quantrill
Gallen's Actual Draft Position: No. 106 overall (St. Louis Cardinals)
Zac Gallen has dealt with some injury issues and might otherwise have a case to be slotted alongside Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber at the top of this redraft. He still has time to make his case to go off the board even higher.
The 27-year-old began his career in the St. Louis organization before the Cardinals traded him to the Miami Marlins along with Sandy Alcantara in the ill-fated Marcell Ozuna trade. A year and a half later, he headed to the Arizona Diamondbacks in a one-for-one swap that sent Jazz Chisholm Jr. the other way.
After going 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 192 strikeouts in a career-high 184 innings last season, he is off to an equally impressive start this year, putting together a 28-inning scoreless streak en route to a 2.36 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 64-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 49.2 innings.
The San Diego Padres have built their rotation through the trade market, making blockbuster deals to acquire Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell. This hypothetical might have allowed them to hold on to some of that prospect talent.
9. Detroit Tigers: C Sean Murphy
9 of 26
Actual Pick: RHP Matt Manning
Murphy's Actual Draft Position: No. 83 overall (Oakland Athletics)
The catcher position has been a revolving door for the Detroit Tigers since Alex Avila was in his prime. The team has used six different Opening Day starters at the position over the past six years.
In this redraft, the Tigers have their pick of Sean Murphy, Will Smith and Alejandro Kirk.
Murphy established himself as one of the best two-way backstops in the game during his time in Oakland, winning a Gold Glove in 2021 and posting a 122 OPS+ with 57 extra-base hits last season.
This year he is taking his game to another level after joining the Atlanta Braves in an offseason trade, hitting .288/.428/.613 for an NL-leading 178 OPS+ with nine doubles, nine home runs, 32 RBI and 1.9 WAR in 33 games.
10. Chicago White Sox: C Will Smith
10 of 26
Actual Pick: C Zack Collins
Smith's Actual Draft Position: No. 32 overall (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Will Smith debuted with a bang during the 2019 season, posting a 133 OPS+ with 15 home runs and 42 RBI in 54 games with the Dodgers.
That subsequent offseason, the Chicago White Sox signed Yasmani Grandal to a four-year, $73 million contract, but he has not lived up to expectations. The former All-Star, now in the last year of the deal, has produced just 3.3 WAR in 273 games.
This redraft would allow them to avoid that mistake.
Smith, 28, is unquestionably one of the best offensive catchers in the game. He has a 132 OPS+ for his career and has averaged 33 home runs and 106 RBI per 162 games while providing solid defense behind the dish.
11. Seattle Mariners: RHP Tony Gonsolin
11 of 26
Actual Pick: OF Kyle Lewis
Gonsolin's Actual Draft Position: No. 281 overall (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Tony Gonsolin was a two-way player at Saint Mary's, hitting .305/.383/.453 in 774 plate appearances while playing in the outfield, and he only pitched 155.1 innings over four years on campus.
The Los Angeles Dodgers drafted him in the ninth round as a relief pitcher before moving him into a starting role in 2018, and his career took off from there.
The 28-year-old has a 2.48 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 286.2 innings over the past five seasons. While he has only eclipsed 100 innings once, those strong numbers would make him an excellent addition to a terrific Seattle Mariners rotation.
12. Boston Red Sox: 2B/SS Tommy Edman
12 of 26
Actual Pick: LHP Jay Groome
Edman's Actual Draft Position: No. 196 (St. Louis Cardinals)
Since Dustin Pedroia's last healthy-ish season in 2017, the Boston Red Sox have been searching for answers at second base.
The addition of Trevor Story last offseason brought temporary stability to the position, but with the departure of Xander Bogaerts, he was expected to shift back to shortstop before elbow surgery sent him to the sidelines.
Versatile infielder Tommy Edman is a defensive standout with excellent speed and a solid hit tool. After a 6.3-WAR season last year, a case could be made that he belongs even higher in this redraft.
13. Tampa Bay Rays: C Alejandro Kirk
13 of 26
Actual Pick: OF Josh Lowe
Kirk's Actual Draft Position: International signing (TOR, $30,000 bonus)
The Toronto Blue Jays discovered Alejandro Kirk at a showcase put on by the Toros de Tijuana of the Mexican League. The team received a $22,500 bonus from the Blue Jays to release him from his contract, and Kirk himself earned a $7,500 signing bonus on Sept. 24, 2016.
The 5'8", 245-pound backstop rode an elite hit tool all the way to the big leagues. Last season he started the All-Star Game and hit .285/.372/.415 with 14 home runs, 63 RBI and more walks (63) than strikeouts (58).
The Tampa Bay Rays have been hunting for a long-term answer at catcher since their inception as a franchise in 1998, making this a great fit.
14. Cleveland Guardians: 1B Nathaniel Lowe
14 of 26
Actual Pick: OF Will Benson
Lowe's Actual Draft Position: No. 390 overall (Tampa Bay Rays)
The Cleveland Guardians don't typically spend much time in the expensive section of the free-agent market, but they made a splash by their standards last offseason when they signed Josh Bell to a two-year, $33 million deal.
That need to splurge could be avoided with this redraft.
Nathaniel Lowe is coming off Silver Slugger honors in 2022 when he hit .302/.358/.492 with 26 doubles, 27 home runs and 76 RBI in 157 games. He is controllable through the 2026 season with a modest $4.05 million salary this year.
The deal that sent him to the Texas Rangers prior to the 2021 season looks like a rare misstep by the Rays front office.
15. Minnesota Twins: RHP Dustin May
15 of 26
Actual Pick: OF Alex Kirilloff
May's Actual Draft Position: No. 101 overall (Los Angeles Dodgers)
The Minnesota Twins have not had much luck developing pitching talent in recent years. Their entire Opening Day rotation this year was acquired via trade over the past few seasons.
Drafting Dustin May would be a golden opportunity to buck that trend. While he has dealt with some injury issues, he is healthy this year and has been consistently excellent when he has taken the mound.
The 25-year-old has a 3.13 ERA in 184 career innings in the big leagues, and that includes a 2.68 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and a .164 opponents' batting average in 40.1 innings this year.
16. Los Angeles Angels: LHP Jesús Luzardo
16 of 26
Actual Pick: C Matt Thaiss
Luzardo's Actual Draft Position: No. 94 overall (Washington Nationals)
A first-round talent who slipped to the third round of the 2016 draft after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of his senior year of high school, Jesús Luzardo signed with the Washington Nationals for an above-slot $1.4 million bonus.
The Nationals traded him to Oakland the following summer along with Blake Treinen and Sheldon Neuse in exchange for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. He was on the move again at the 2021 deadline when he was dealt to the Miami Marlins in a one-for-one swap for rental bat Starling Marte.
It took him some time to settle in at the MLB level, but he turned a corner in 2022 when he posted a 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 120 strikeouts in 100.1 innings. He would essentially fill the spot that free-agent addition Tyler Anderson did in the Los Angeles Angels rotation.
17. Houston Astros: 1B Yuli Gurriel
17 of 26
Actual Pick: RHP Forrest Whitley
Gurriel's Actual Draft Position: International signing (HOU, five-year, $47.5 million deal)
Given a chance to do it over, there is little doubt the Houston Astros would sign Yuli Gurriel to the same five-year, $47.5 million deal he inked after defecting from Cuba.
The longtime international standout was 32 years old when he made his MLB debut. He won the AL batting title and a Gold Glove in 2021 while tallying 13.4 WAR in seven seasons in Houston, contributing to World Series winners in 2017 and 2022.
The 38-year-old saw a decline in his production last year, which played a part in the deadline deal to acquire Trey Mancini, but he was an integral part of the team's recent run of success.
18. New York Yankees: OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
18 of 26
Actual Pick: OF Blake Rutherford
Gurriel's Actual Draft Position: International signing (TOR, seven-year, $22 million deal)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is nine years younger than his brother, and he didn't jump straight to the majors after defecting from Cuba, instead making his MLB debut during the 2018 season.
Originally a middle infielder, he settled into a corner outfield spot, and he has been a steady offensive contributor throughout his six big league seasons, hitting .286/.331/.471 for a 118 OPS+ in 2,002 plate appearances.
Left field has been an issue for the New York Yankees the past few seasons, and Gurriel would provide a productive solution to that problem.
19. New York Mets: RHP David Bednar
19 of 26
Actual Pick: RHP Justin Dunn
Bednar's Actual Draft Position: No. 1,044 overall (San Diego Padres)
The New York Mets signed closer Edwin Díaz to a record-setting five-year, $102 million deal during the offseason. Even without taking his season-ending injury into account, that was a risky investment for a relief pitcher.
This redraft gives them a quality closer at a fraction of the price.
David Bednar was a 35th-round pick out of Lafayette College where he had a 3.92 ERA with 70 strikeouts in 59.2 innings over 10 starts during his junior year. He moved to the bullpen in pro ball and emerged as an intriguing prospect before San Diego traded him to Pittsburgh in the Joe Musgrove deal.
The 28-year-old has gone 9-of-10 on save chances this season with a 0.60 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and a 19-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 innings.
20. Los Angeles Dodgers: OF Brandon Marsh
20 of 26
Actual Pick: SS Gavin Lux
Marsh's Actual Draft Position: No. 60 overall (Los Angeles Angels)
One could make a case for the Los Angeles Dodgers to double down on their selection of Gavin Lux following his breakout 2022 season, though it's uncertain how his season-ending torn ACL will impact him.
With their deep talent pool and deeper pockets, the Dodgers can afford to take a chance on upside, and no player left on the board offers more upside than outfielder Brandon Marsh.
The 25-year-old is hitting .311/.416/.575 with 16 extra-base hits in 125 plate appearances in his first full season with the Philadelphia Phillies, and the batted-ball metrics suggest his breakout is the real deal.
21. Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Cal Quantrill
21 of 26
Actual Pick: RHP T.J. Zeuch
Quantrill's Actual Draft Position: No. 8 overall (San Diego Padres)
The Toronto Blue Jays have spent the past several years spending big in an effort to build a quality starting rotation, adding Hyun Jin Ryu, Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt in free agency while giving trade pickup José Berríos a nine-figure extension.
They whiffed on T.J. Zeuch with their 2016 first-round pick but salvaged the draft class by taking Bo Bichette in the second round.
This time around, they add a quality arm in Cal Quantrill, who was coming off Tommy John surgery at Stanford when the San Diego Padres rolled the dice on him with the No. 8 overall selection.
The 28-year-old is 33-18 with a 3.56 ERA in 510.1 innings in the majors over the last five seasons in San Diego and Cleveland.
22. Pittsburgh Pirates: OF Austin Hays
22 of 26
Actual Pick: 3B Will Craig
Hays' Actual Draft Position: No. 91 overall (Baltimore Orioles)
Austin Hays made his MLB debut Sept. 7, 2017, becoming the first player from the 2016 draft class to reach the majors.
Despite his early arrival in the big leagues, he didn't become an everyday player in the majors until the 2021 season. Since the start of that year, he has tallied 5.6 WAR in 308 games.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have spent the past few years cobbling together an outfield around Bryan Reynolds—who in this hypothetical is headed elsewhere—so this would be a solid selection late in the first round that addresses a consistent need.
23. St. Louis Cardinals: SS Gavin Lux
23 of 26
Actual Pick: SS Delvin Pérez
Lux's Actual Draft Position: No. 20 overall (Los Angeles Dodgers)
With Tommy Edman going to the Boston Red Sox at No. 12 overall in this redraft, the St. Louis Cardinals have a need for a middle infielder.
Gavin Lux will spend the 2023 season watching from the sidelines while he recovers from a torn ACL suffered during spring training, but his stock was trending up prior to that injury, enough so that the Los Angeles Dodgers let Trea Turner walk in free agency with the intention of handing Lux the everyday shortstop job.
The 25-year-old hit .276/.346/.399 for a 106 OPS+ with 33 extra-base hits, 66 runs scored and 2.5 WAR in 129 games last season.
Compensatory Round
24 of 26
24. San Diego Padres: C Gabriel Moreno
(Pick assigned for losing Ian Kennedy in free agency)
25. San Diego Padres: LHP A.J. Puk
(Pick assigned for losing Justin Upton in free agency)
26. Chicago White Sox: OF Dylan Carlson
(Pick assigned for losing Jeff Samardzija in free agency)
27. Baltimore Orioles: RHP Roansy Contreras
(Pick assigned for losing Wei-Yin Chen in free agency)
28. Washington Nationals: LHP Eric Lauer
(Pick assigned for losing Jordan Zimmermann in free agency)
29. Washington Nationals: SS Geraldo Perdomo
(Pick assigned for losing Ian Desmond in free agency)
30. Texas Rangers: OF Josh Lowe
(Pick assigned for losing Yovani Gallardo in free agency)
31. New York Mets: RHP Ian Anderson
(Pick assigned for losing Daniel Murphy in free agency)
32. Los Angeles Dodgers: IF/OF Cavan Biggio
(Pick assigned for losing Zack Greinke in free agency)
33. St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Michael King
(Pick assigned for losing John Lackey in free agency)
34. St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Zach Plesac
(Pick assigned for losing Jason Heyward in free agency)
Competitive Balance Round A
25 of 26
35. Cincinnati Reds: RHP Tyler Wells
36. Los Angeles Dodgers: SS Oswald Peraza
(Pick assigned for failing to sign Kyle Funkhouser in 2015)
37. Oakland Athletics: OF Jack Suwinski
38. Colorado Rockies: RHP Dane Dunning
39. Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP John Schreiber
40. Atlanta Braves: LHP Colin Poche
41. Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Aaron Civale
Notable Undrafted Players
26 of 26
Undrafted Position Players
- OF Akil Baddoo
- OF Alexander Canario
- 1B/3B Bobby Dalbec
- IF Santiago Espinal
- OF Jake Fraley
- 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff
- OF Kyle Lewis
- IF Nicky Lopez
- IF Jose Miranda
- 1B/OF Luke Raley
- C Jake Rogers
Undrafted Pitchers
- RHP Bryan Baker
- LHP Braxton Garrett
- RHP Colin Holderman
- RHP Dakota Hudson
- LHP Cole Irvin
- RHP Griffin Jax
- RHP Dean Kremer
- LHP Dylan Lee
- LHP Joey Lucchesi
- RHP Matt Manning
- LHP Adrian Morejon
- LHP Kyle Muller
- RHP Johan Oviedo
- LHP Cionel Pérez
- RHP Josh Winckowski
.png?w=480)
