Re-Drafting Shohei Ohtani and the 2017 MLB Draft Including International Prospects
What if Major League Baseball were like the National Basketball Association and international players were part of the annual draft process rather than the current free-for-all system of players going to the highest bidder within the confines of a club's predetermined bonus pool?
That's the hypothetical scenario we set out to explore with our new redraft series.
To kick things off with a bang, we're starting in 2017, which is the year that Shohei Ohtani, Wander Franco, Julio Rodríguez and Luis Robert Jr. were all signed through the international free-agency process.
That foursome and many others are added to a draft pool that was originally fronted by Royce Lewis (MIN), Hunter Greene (CIN), MacKenzie Gore (SD), Brendan McKay (TB) and Kyle Wright (ATL) as the top five picks.
1. Minnesota Twins: RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani
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Actual Pick: SS Royce Lewis
Ohtani's Actual Draft Position: International signing (LAA, $2.3 million bonus)
Can you imagine the level of tanking that would have occurred during the 2016 season if Shohei Ohtani had been a draft-eligible player for 2017?
Similar to Victor Wembanyama playing professionally in France this year while NBA teams salivate over the idea of building their franchise around his unique skill set, Ohtani spent the 2016 season suiting up for the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan.
He hit .322/.416/.588 with 22 home runs and 67 RBI in 382 plate appearances, and went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 174 strikeouts in 140 innings on the mound, tossing four complete games and one shutout.
His all-encompassing talent and massive impact make him a no-brainer for the No. 1 spot in this redraft, even with some dynamic young talent to follow.
2. Cincinnati Reds: SS Wander Franco
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Actual Pick: RHP Hunter Greene
Franco's Actual Draft Position: International signing (TB, $3.8 million bonus)
Since Hall of Fame shortstop Barry Larkin retired following the 2004 season, the Cincinnati Reds have had 13 different Opening Day starters at the position, with only Zack Cozart (x6) and Alex Gonzalez (x2) making multiple starts.
So while the electric arm of Hunter Greene certainly presents plenty of upside, and there is an argument to be made for replicating the pick they actually made, the opportunity to shore up shortstop for the next decade with Wander Franco is impossible to pass up.
It's fair to wonder whether the Reds would have taken a similar approach to the Tampa Bay Rays in signing the young phenom to an early, decade-plus-long extension, or if they would have instead played out his arbitration years.
Regardless, he's the clear pick for the Cincinnati front office at No. 2 overall.
3. San Diego Padres: OF Julio Rodríguez
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Actual Pick: LHP MacKenzie Gore
Rodríguez's Actual Draft Position: International signing (SEA, $1.8 million bonus)
Here's a full list of all the homegrown outfielders in San Diego Padres history who have been named to at least one All-Star team:
- Johnny Grubb: 1974
- Dave Winfield: 1977-80
- Tony Gwynn: 1984-87, 89-99
In this hypothetical scenario, they have their pick of Julio Rodríguez or Luis Robert Jr. and a golden opportunity to finally buck that disappointing trend.
Since J-Rod is more than three years younger and his 2022 season far exceeds anything Robert has produced, he's the pick at No. 3 overall.
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4. Tampa Bay Rays: OF Luis Robert Jr.
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Actual Pick: LHP/1B Brendan McKay
Robert's Actual Draft Position: International prospect (CWS, $26 million bonus)
The Tampa Bay Rays do as good a job as any organization with developing pitching talent, so passing on Hunter Greene, Kyle Wright and some of the other top arms in this class would be tough, but the upside of Luis Robert Jr. is simply too high to let him slip any further.
The Cuban defector was given a massive $26 million signing bonus by the Chicago White Sox, and the team paid a matching tax penalty, so the hype train had already left the station before he ever made his pro debut.
He has battled injuries throughout his time in the big leagues, never playing more than 98 games in a season since he debuted during the abridged 2020 campaign, but he has a 117 OPS+ and has averaged 5.4 WAR per 162 games when he has managed to take the field.
His tantalizing mix of power, speed and defense would slot nicely between Randy Arozarena and Josh Lowe in the Tampa Bay outfield.
5. Atlanta Braves: RHP Hunter Greene
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Actual Pick: RHP Kyle Wright
Greene's Actual Draft Position: No. 2 overall (Cincinnati Reds)
Do the Atlanta Braves stick with their pick of 2022 breakout pitcher Kyle Wright or pivot to the higher ceiling of Hunter Greene?
That was one of the tougher decisions in this entire exercise.
The fact that Greene is roughly four years younger and off to a better start to the 2023 season broke the tie, and the team-friendly six-year, $53 million extension that Greene recently signed with the Reds feels a lot like the type of deals the Atlanta front office has given out in recent years.
Armed with a fastball that averages 98.9 mph on the gun and a wipeout slider, Greene has piled up 204 strikeouts in 153.2 innings during his two seasons in the big leagues.
6. Oakland Athletics: RHP Kyle Wright
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Actual Pick: OF Austin Beck
Wright's Actual Draft Position: No. 5 overall (Atlanta Braves)
Kyle Wright was in the conversation to go No. 1 overall before an inconsistent junior season at Vanderbilt caused him to slip to No. 5, and despite the addition of international players, he doesn't slide much more than that in this redraft.
The 27-year-old took some time to find his footing in the big leagues, but after going 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 174 strikeouts in 180.1 innings last season, he is as accomplished as any pitcher in his draft class.
The 6'4", 215-pound right-hander would immediately become the ace of the Oakland Athletics staff, and he might have gotten more of an opportunity to prove himself in the big leagues earlier after he was limited mostly to spot-start duties during his first few seasons in Atlanta.
He pitched just 70 innings over his first four seasons in the majors while shuttling between Triple-A and the big leagues, and he didn't have much margin for error on a contending Atlanta team. Maybe he'd get a longer look sooner in Oakland and the breakout season would come a year or two earlier.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks: OF Adolis García
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Actual Pick: 1B/OF Pavin Smith
García's Actual Draft Position: International signing (STL, $2.5 million bonus)
A Cuban defector who spent part of the 2016 season playing for the Yomiuri Giants in Japan, Adolis García eventually signed with the St. Louis Cardinals, but it was not until after the Texas Rangers purchased his contract that he finally got an extended big league opportunity.
He launched 31 home runs as a 28-year-old rookie in 2021 and followed that with a 27-homer, 25-steal, 3.6-WAR season last year to solidify his status as an impact player.
Even with the emergence of Corbin Carroll this year, the D-backs outfield remains in flux as Alek Thomas has yet to prove he can hit MLB pitching and Jake McCarthy was demoted to Triple-A after a rough start to the year.
Plugging him into right field and a spot in the middle of the lineup would give a young team on the rise another piece to build around.
8. Philadelphia Phillies: C/OF Daulton Varsho
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Actual Pick: OF Adam Haseley
Varsho's Actual Draft Position: No. 68 overall (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Would an opportunity to draft and develop Daulton Varsho as a catcher have changed the course of Philadelphia Phillies history?
The former top prospect hit .301/.378/.520 with 25 doubles, 18 home runs and 21 steals at Double-A during the 2019 season, the same year J.T. Realmuto joined the Philadelphia Phillies in an offseason blockbuster trade.
Drafting him wouldn't have changed the need to make that trade, but his rapid rise through the minor leagues might have been enough for the front office to think twice about signing Realmuto to a record-setting five-year, $115.5 million extension when he hit the open market after the 2020 season.
It's an interesting hypothetical worth pondering for a team that has a ton of money tied up in a handful of aging stars.
9. Milwaukee Brewers: RHP Luis Garcia
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Actual Pick: IF Keston Hiura
Garcia's Actual Draft Position: International signing (HOU, $20,000 bonus)
The Houston Astros managed to land Luis Garcia for a modest $20,000 bonus during the 2017 international signing period, and he has since developed into far and away the best pitcher from that international class.
In this scenario, he joins Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta to make an already talented Milwaukee rotation even better, slotting in as one of the best No. 4 starters in baseball.
The Brewers have often let their top pitching prospects cut their teeth in the bullpen before shifting them into the rotation, and the Astros took a similar approach with Garcia, so from a developmental standpoint, this feels like a great fit.
The 26-year-old has a 3.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 364 strikeouts in 352 innings over four MLB seasons, and he has 23.1 frames of postseason experience. His 2023 season has ended, as he'll undergo Tommy John surgery, but he's still worthy of this early redraft position.
10. Los Angeles Angels: LHP MacKenzie Gore
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Actual Pick: OF Jo Adell
Gore's Actual Draft Position: No. 3 overall (San Diego Padres)
After tearing through the lower levels of the minors and rising to the top of the pitching prospect rankings, MacKenzie Gore dealt with command and mechanical issues in 2021 that looked like they might derail his career.
He eventually came out the other side to debut with the San Diego Padres in 2022, posting a 4.50 ERA with 72 strikeouts in 70 innings, and he was shipped to the Washington Nationals as part of the Juan Soto blockbuster.
With a 3.77 ERA and 39 punchouts in 31 innings this year, he is settling in nicely as an MLB starter, and he's still only 24 years old with club control stretching all the way through the 2027 season.
Maybe drafting Gore would keep the Angels from overpaying for Tyler Anderson this past offseason at three years, $39 million.
11. Chicago White Sox: LHP Trevor Rogers
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Actual Pick: 3B Jake Burger
Rogers' Actual Draft Position: No. 13 overall (Miami Marlins)
Left-hander Trevor Rogers looked like a future ace during his rookie season in 2021, posting a 2.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 157 strikeouts in 133 innings while earning an All-Star selection and finishing runner-up in NL Rookie of the Year voting.
He failed to match that success last season, finishing 4-11 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 23 starts, but he is off to a better start this year and still has enough upside to bet on in his age-25 season.
With Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito and Mike Clevinger all potentially headed for free agency this offseason, the White Sox would benefit greatly from having a controllable young arm such as Rogers to slot alongside Dylan Cease in the rotation.
12. Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Tanner Houck
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Actual Pick: RHP Shane Baz
Houck's Actual Draft Position: No. 24 overall (Boston Red Sox)
Slotted in both the starting rotation and at the back of the bullpen over the past few seasons, right-hander Tanner Houck has shown the potential to be an impact pitcher at the highest level.
The 26-year-old has a 3.44 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 193 strikeouts in 178 innings in his MLB career, and with a strong 6'5" frame, a terrific slider and a mid-90s fastball he checks all the boxes to be a rotation staple.
The Pirates have been in a position to gamble on upside for years as they continue to build back toward contention, and now that they have seemingly turned a corner, another quality, controllable arm on the staff would go a long way.
13. Miami Marlins: IF Josh Rojas
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Actual Pick: LHP Trevor Rogers
Rojas' Actual Draft Position: No. 781 overall (Houston Astros)
A 26th-round pick out of the University of Hawai'i, Josh Rojas has been the biggest late-round steal of the 2017 draft class.
The Houston Astros traded him to the Arizona Diamondbacks as part of the Zack Greinke blockbuster deal, and he was a 3.2-WAR player last season when he posted a 111 OPS+ with 35 extra-base hits and 23 steals while splitting his time between second base and third base defensively.
With his speed and defensive versatility, he is the type of player who can help any team, and he's the best player on the board here for the Miami Marlins at No. 13 overall.
14. Kansas City Royals: OF Chas McCormick
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Actual Pick: 1B Nick Pratto
McCormick's Actual Draft Position: No. 631 overall (Houston Astros)
Another late-round find by the Houston Astros, outfielder Chas McCormick was a 21st-round selection out of D-II Millersville University of Pennsylvania, where he hit .372/.440/.523 across 955 plate appearances as a four-year starter.
An unheralded contributor in a Houston lineup filled with high-profile stars, he has quietly posted a 111 OPS+ with 30 home runs, 103 RBI, 12 steals and 4.2 WAR in 238 career games, helping to ease the departure of George Springer in free agency.
The Kansas City outfield has been a revolving door since the days of Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain ended, and he would be a welcome addition.
15. Houston Astros: RHP Shane Baz
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Actual Pick: RHP J.B. Bukauskas
Baz's Actual Draft Position: No. 12 overall (Pittsburgh Pirates)
The Astros have a knack for developing high-octane arms, and while he has dealt with injury issues throughout his professional career, Shane Baz still brings upside that could be fully unlocked in their organization.
Still just 23 years old, he posted a 2.06 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 113 strikeouts in 78.2 innings in the upper levels of the minors during the 2021 season, stepping away from the Tampa Bay Rays organization for a stretch to pitch for Team USA in the Olympics.
He made his MLB debut that September with a 2.03 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 13.1 innings down the stretch, and the Rays gave him the ball to start Game 2 of the ALDS.
Arm issues limited him to six appearances in 2022, and he is recovering from Tommy John surgery, but it's worth rolling the dice on his ceiling for an Astros team without any glaring needs.
16. New York Yankees: C/OF MJ Melendez
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Actual Pick: RHP Clarke Schmidt
Melendez's Actual Draft Position: No. 52 overall (Kansas City Royals)
There were zero catchers selected in the first round of the 2017 draft, with MJ Melendez the second backstop off the board when he was chosen No. 52 overall in the second round by the Kansas City Royals.
He got off to a slow start in the minors but came out the other side of the canceled 2020 MiLB season a different player, hitting .288/.386/.625 with 41 home runs and 103 RBI in 124 games between Double-A and Triple-A.
That paved the way for his MLB debut last year, and while he batted just .217, he showed a great approach at the plate with a 12.4 percent walk rate while tallying 18 home runs and 62 RBI.
The New York Yankees do not have a clear catcher of the future, and he also provides versatility with the ability to handle a corner outfield spot.
17. Seattle Mariners: 2B/3B Miguel Vargas
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Actual Pick: 1B Evan White
Vargas' Actual Draft Position: International signing (LAD, $300,000 million bonus)
Second base has been a revolving door for the Seattle Mariners since Robinson Canó was suspended after he tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs and ultimately traded to the New York Mets in the blockbuster deal that brought Jarred Kelenic to Seattle.
Adam Frazier failed to productively plug the hole last year, and Kolten Wong has struggled even more this season, so the opportunity to potentially shore up the position by selecting rookie Miguel Vargas is appealing.
Vargas, 23, began the year ranked No. 29 on the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list after hitting .304/.404/.511 with 32 doubles, 17 home runs and 82 RBI in 113 games at Triple-A in 2022.
18. Detroit Tigers: RHP Garrett Whitlock
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Actual Pick: RHP Alex Faedo
Whitlock's Actual Draft Position: No. 542 overall (New York Yankees)
An 18th-round pick who was drafted more on stuff and potential than production during his college career, Garrett Whitlock began his pro career in the New York Yankees organization before he was selected by the Boston Red Sox in the 2020 Rule 5 draft.
He went 8-4 with a 1.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 81 strikeouts in 73.1 innings as a rookie, tallying two saves and 15 holds in 46 appearances out of the bullpen. The 26-year-old signed a four-year, $18.75 million extension that includes a pair of club options prior to the 2022 season and then continued to be a bright spot on the Boston staff last year while serving in a swingman role.
The Detroit Tigers have had a tough time developing pitching talent in recent years, which has played a role in their stalled rebuilding efforts, so the opportunity to add another quality arm to the staff would be welcomed with open arms.
19. San Francisco Giants: SS Ezequiel Tovar
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Actual Pick: OF Heliot Ramos
Tovar's Actual Draft Position: International signing (COL, $800,000 bonus)
With Brandon Crawford coming down the homestretch of his career, Thairo Estrada best suited to stay at second base and top prospect Marco Luciano expected by some to outgrow shortstop, the San Francisco Giants have a long-term question mark at the position.
Ezequiel Tovar could be the answer.
The 21-year-old hit .319/.387/.540 with 32 extra-base hits and 17 steals in 71 games in the upper levels of the minors last season before making his MLB debut as a September call-up.
The Colorado Rockies handed him the starting job to begin the 2023 season, and while he is off to a slow start at the plate, all the tools are there for him to be a two-way standout shortstop for the next decade.
20. New York Mets: RHP James Karinchak
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Actual Pick: LHP David Peterson
Karinchak's Actual Draft Position: No. 282 overall (Cleveland Guardians)
With 13.9 strikeouts per nine innings over 146 career appearances, James Karinchak has some of the most unhittable stuff in baseball when everything is clicking.
His fastball sits in the mid-90s, and he can reach back for more when needed, and his lethal curveball generated a 48.6 percent whiff rate last season as he posted a 2.08 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 14.3 K/9 with three saves and eight holds in 38 appearances.
A contending team can never have too many quality bullpen arms, and as the New York Mets continue to work around the loss of All-Star closer Edwin Díaz to injury, Karinchak would be an impactful addition to their relief corps.
21. Baltimore Orioles: RHP Brayan Bello
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Actual Pick: LHP DL Hall
Bello's Actual Draft Position: International signing (BOS, $28,000 bonus)
One of only two pitchers from the 2017 international class to earn a first-round spot in our redraft, Brayan Bello showed intriguing upside as a rookie with the Boston Red Sox last season.
The 23-year-old made 11 starts and two relief appearances in 2022, posting a 4.71 ERA with 55 strikeouts in 57.1 innings, and his 2.94 FIP painted a far more encouraging picture of his debut performance.
There are more established pitchers still on the board, but it makes sense for the Orioles to prioritize upside over floor as they look to break through and reach the postseason for the first time since 2016.
22. Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Griffin Canning
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Actual Pick: SS Logan Warmoth
Canning's Actual Draft Position: No. 47 overall (Los Angeles Angels)
One of the most productive college pitchers in the nation during the 2017 season, Griffin Canning finished 7-4 with a 2.34 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 140 strikeouts in 119 innings during his junior year at UCLA.
The 26-year-old reached Triple-A in his first full professional season and made his MLB debut the following year, logging a 4.58 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 90.1 innings during his rookie season. He won AL Gold Glove honors in 2020 and has a 4.78 ERA in 229.2 career innings at the MLB level.
The Toronto Blue Jays have several high-priced outside additions in their starting rotation, and the potential to develop a pitcher such as Canning to fill a spot at the back of the staff might have saved them some money while trying to build a competitive starting staff.
23. Los Angeles Dodgers: LHP DL Hall
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Actual Pick: OF Jeren Kendall
Hall's Actual Draft Position: No. 21 overall (Baltimore Orioles)
Left-handed pitchers who can reach the upper 90s with their fastball don't grow on trees, and the Los Angeles Dodgers have the developmental staff in place to squeeze the most out of a pitcher such as DL Hall.
The 24-year-old has earned a spot on the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list each of the last five seasons, checking in at No. 75 to begin the 2023 campaign after he posted a 4.48 ERA with 137 strikeouts in 84.1 innings in the minors last year.
With 5.2 walks per nine innings during his minor league career, he may not have the command to stick as a starter, but the stuff is there for him to be an impact arm in some capacity in the big leagues.
24. Boston Red Sox: SS Ronny Mauricio
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Actual Pick: RHP Tanner Houck
Mauricio's Actual Draft Position: International signing (NYM, $2.1 million bonus)
Ronny Mauricio is the first player in this redraft who has not yet made his MLB debut, but he has the offensive upside to be worthy of a first-round selection, and the Boston Red Sox have a clear need on the infield.
The 22-year-old has been moved aggressively through the New York Mets minor league system, spending all of his age-21 season last year at Double-A. He tallied 26 doubles, 26 home runs, 89 RBI and 20 steals, but those strong counting numbers were accompanied by a subpar .259/.296/.472 batting line.
After winning Dominican Winter League MVP honors during the offseason, he was sent to Triple-A to open the year and is batting .353/.391/.622 through 30 games and knocking on the door for his first MLB promotion.
25. Washington Nationals: RHP Keegan Thompson
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Actual Pick: LHP Seth Romero
Thompson's Actual Draft Position: No. 105 overall (Chicago Cubs)
The Chicago Cubs selected pitchers with seven of their first eight picks in the 2017 draft, and Keegan Thompson has been the best of the bunch by a wide margin.
The 28-year-old has filled a variety of roles on the staff since making his MLB debut in 2021, logging 23 starts and 49 relief appearances and pitching to a 3.63 ERA with 175 strikeouts in 183.2 innings.
A controllable pitcher with the ability to slot into the starting rotation or serve as a multi-inning reliever out of the bullpen would be a valuable addition to the Washington Nationals' rebuilding efforts.
26. Texas Rangers: RHP Trevor Stephan
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Actual Pick: OF Bubba Thompson
Stephan's Actual Draft Position: No. 92 overall (New York Yankees)
Another Rule 5 success story from the same New York Yankees draft class as Garrett Whitlock, Trevor Stephan was also taken in the 2020 Rule 5 draft as the Yankees lost a pair of quality arms they left unprotected.
Stephan, 27, had a 4.41 ERA and 10.7 K/9 in 63.1 innings as a rookie with the Cleveland Guardians in 2021. He then took another step forward last year to emerge as one of the team's go-to relievers, logging a 2.69 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 11.6 K/9 with three saves and 19 holds in 66 appearances.
The Guardians gave him a four-year, $10 million extension during the offseason, and he has been every bit as impressive to start the 2023 campaign. Adding him to a shaky Texas Rangers bullpen would really help solidify that relief corps.
27. Chicago Cubs: OF George Valera
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Actual Pick: LHP Brendon Little
Valera's Actual Draft Position: International signing (CLE, $1.3 million bonus)
One of the most hyped offensive prospects in the 2017 international class, George Valera saw his first extended action in the upper levels of the minors last year and finished with impressive overall numbers.
The 22-year-old hit .250/.353/.463 with 25 doubles, 24 home runs and 82 RBI in 132 games between Double-A and Triple-A, and while he is recovering from offseason wrist surgery, his future remains incredibly bright.
That upside is enough to make him the final pick in our redraft's first round, adding him to an exciting collection of young outfielders for the Chicago Cubs that includes top prospects Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kevin Alcántara and Brennen Davis.
Compensatory Round
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28. Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Bailey Ober
(Pick assigned for losing Edwin Encarnacion in free agency.)
29. Texas Rangers: 1B/3B Mark Vientos
(Pick assigned for losing Ian Desmond in free agency.)
30. Chicago Cubs: OF Drew Waters
(Pick assigned for losing Dexter Fowler in free agency.)
Competitive Balance Round A
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31. Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Nate Pearson
32. Cincinnati Reds: 1B/OF Brent Rooker
33. Oakland Athletics: RHP Alex Lange
34. Milwaukee Brewers: IF/OF Ezequiel Duran
35. Minnesota Twins: IF Taylor Walls
36. Miami Marlins: 3B Jake Burger
Notable Undrafted Players
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Undrafted Position Players
- OF Jo Adell
- SS Jose Barrero
- OF Stuart Fairchild
- IF Keston Hiura
- SS Royce Lewis
- IF Nick Maton
- OF Jake Meyers
- 1B Ryan Noda
- OF Andy Pages
- 1B/OF Nick Pratto
- IF/OF Ceddanne Rafaela
- OF Heliot Ramos
- IF Brayan Rocchio
- 1B/OF Gavin Sheets
- 1B/OF Pavin Smith
- OF Bubba Thompson
- C Connor Wong
Undrafted Pitchers
- RHP Mike Baumann
- RHP Connor Brogdon
- RHP Jake Cousins
- LHP Brandon Hughes
- RHP Ron Marinaccio
- RHP Eli Morgan
- LHP David Peterson
- RHP Clarke Schmidt
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