Mets' Early Takeaways of 2023 MLB Season
With a record-setting payroll pushing $350 million, expectations were sky-high for the New York Mets entering the 2023 season, so suffice it to say their sub-.500 record has been among the biggest disappointments of the year so far.
Rookie Brett Baty has been an early bright spot offensively, though the team has as a whole has underperformed at the plate, due in part to some bad luck from a batted-ball standpoint. On the other hand, the early struggles of the starting rotation are a far bigger concern going forward.
There is still a lot of season to be played, but with one month in the books, now is the perfect time to dig into some of the team's biggest early takeaways.
Off we go!
The Offense Has Had Some Bad Batted-Ball Luck
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The Mets offense has been the definition of mediocre so far this year, ranking near the middle of the pack in batting average (.237, 21st), OPS (.716, 16th) and runs per game (4.33, 19th).
Considering how much money they've pumped into that portion of the roster, those numbers are well short of expectations, but there is some hope that there could be positive regression right around the corner.
According to FanGraphs, the Mets rank 26th in the majors in batting average on balls in play (.272), but 20th in hard-hit rate (38.1%) and 19th in average exit velocity (88.8 mph). To oversimplify, the quality of their contact has been better than the results of their contact.
It's relatively minor in the grand scheme of things, but seeing a few more hard-hit balls find a hole rather than finding someone's glove could go a long way toward building some momentum offensively.
Brett Baty Will Be a Factor in the NL Rookie of the Year Race
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Outfielders James Outman (LAD) and Corbin Carroll (ARI) have emerged as the early favorites in the NL Rookie of the Year race, but it's only a matter of time before Brett Baty crashes the party.
While he started the season in the minors, it didn't take long for Baty to be called up to replace a struggling Eduardo Escobar as the team's primary third baseman.
After hitting .400 with five home runs and 15 RBI in nine games at Triple-A, he made his MLB season debut on April 17, and he is hitting .271/.338/.424 for a 111 OPS+ with three doubles, two home runs and six RBI in 65 plate appearances.
Beyond the surface-level numbers, he also has fantastic batted-ball numbers, including a 53.3 percent hard-hit rate that would rank 18th in the majors if he qualified for the leaderboard. That bodes well for his ability to continue producing at a high level as he tries to chase down those two outfielders in the Rookie of the Year race.
The Starting Pitching Struggles Are Real
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Heading into the season, a projected starting rotation of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, José Quintana, Carlos Carrasco and rookie Kodai Senga looked like it had the potential to be the best in baseball.
Let's check in on that group:
- Verlander: 2 GS, 2.25 ERA (4.23 FIP); missed first 31 games with shoulder injury
- Scherzer: 5 GS, 5.56 ERA (6.31 FIP), 22.2 IP
- Quintana: Sidelined until at least July following bone graft on rib
- Carrasco: 3 GS, 8.56 ERA (7.41 FIP), 13.2 IP; sidelined with bone chip in shoulder
- Senga: 6 GS, 3.38 ERA (5.15 FIP), 32.0 IP
The fact that most of those pitchers have an FIP that is higher than his ERA is not a promising sign going forward, and while guys like Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and David Peterson have done their best to fill in, a lack of quality depth has also been exposed as an issue.
This team put a lot of eggs in the Verlander and Scherzer basket, and those two need to get on track for them to have a chance of living up to lofty expectations.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and accurate through Tuesday's games.
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