BS Meter on Latest NBA Trade and Offseason Rumors
As we dive deeper into the 2023 NBA playoffs, this also means the offseason is growing closer for all 30 teams.
Between Kyrie Irving's future in Dallas, additional free-agent and trade targets for the Mavericks, a potential home for Dillon Brooks and one current playoff team monitoring the status of a two-time MVP, there's been a lot of rumors spinning around lately.
It's time to fire up the BS meter to determine what's to be believed and what looks like a lie heading into the summer.
Jakob Poeltl a 'Lock' to Re-Sign with Raptors
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While not much went right for the Toronto Raptors this season, Jakob Poeltl proved to be a nice addition following a trade over from the San Antonio Spurs.
The 27-year-old center averaged 13.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.3 blocks and shot 65.2 percent overall, improving the Raptors by a whopping 14.1 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor (98th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass).
Even with Poeltl about to hit unrestricted free agency and the Raptors facing a lot of offseason questions, don't expect him to leave Toronto anytime soon.
As Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus writes, "Per multiple sources around the league, the Toronto Raptors are a 'lock' to bring back center Jakob Poeltl, whom the team initially drafted at No. 9 in 2016."
Pincus also states that Toronto may end up paying Poeltl between $13 million and $15 million per year on a new deal.
Keeping this partnership going makes sense for everyone involved. The Raptors paid way too much (2024 top-six-protected first-round pick, second-round picks in 2023 and 2025, Khem Birch) to have Poeltl walk out the door now, and the veteran center looks like he'll continue to have a starting job and nice payday if he stays in Toronto.
While a number of contenders could use his rebounding, passing and defense, expect Poeltl to stay with the Raptors like Pincus reported.
BS Meter: No BS here. Poeltl and the Raptors look like a match.
Pistons 'Team to Watch' for Dillon Brooks
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Dillon Brooks has made a lot of headlines this postseason, although few of them actually contributed to winning for the Memphis Grizzlies.
As he hits unrestricted free agency this summer, Brooks could very well find himself shopping for a new home.
One potential destination? The Detroit Pistons.
As Marc Stein of The Stein Line substack writes, the Pistons are "a team to watch" for Brooks this summer.
The Pistons have a nice chunk of cap space heading into free agency, with a projected $25.5 million, according to Spotrac's Keith Smith. Given the amount of quality starters and role players projected to become free agents this offseason, however, Brooks shouldn't be high on Detroit's list.
Yes, his defensive chops and playoff experience would come in handy with the Pistons, but Brooks' efficiency on offense would hurt this team's scoring output while limiting the overall spacing. Among the 74 players who attempted 13 shots or more last season, Brooks' field-goal percentage of 39.6 percent ranked 73rd overall, only ahead of Fred VanVleet.
Considering Detroit finished just 22nd overall in three-point accuracy (35.1 percent), Brooks' mark of 32.6 percent from beyond the arc this season would only make things worse.
The Pistons may check in on Brooks' asking price but should ultimately look elsewhere for veteran help.
BS Meter: BS that Detroit should pursue Brooks in free agency, even if the team's available cap space may link him to the Pistons.
Khris Middleton, Deandre Ayton on Mavs Radar
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The one-ring circus known as the Dallas Mavericks will be among the more intriguing shows this summer.
From Kyrie Irving and Christian Wood's free agency, to Luka Dončić dodging trade rumors and the overall disappointment of failing to make the playoffs after an appearance in the West Finals a year ago, there's never a boring day in Dallas.
For now, this is an organization that needs to continue to add as much talent as possible around Dončić, a player who could very well become the best in the world over the next few seasons.
According to The Athletic's Tim Cato, Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton and Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton "have been floated as possibilities" as potential targets via free agency and trade.
Of course, there's one potential flaw with these targets. Following the trades for Irving and Wood over the past year, the Mavs are low on both assets and cap space.
Dallas only possesses cap space if it renounces the rights to its current free agents like Irving and Wood, which appears unlikely, at least for Irving. The Mavs can't afford to let the All-Star point guard walk, especially after seeing Jalen Brunson do the same last summer. This likely rules out Middleton, unless the Milwaukee Bucks were to somehow agree to a sign-and-trade.
Of course, that presents a problem as well, as trading for a player of Middleton's or Ayton's caliber means giving up something of value in return. The Mavs are down to just one tradable first-round pick for now (2027) and don't even possess a second-round pick to part with.
Young guards like Josh Green and Jaden Hardy carry some value, but neither is landing a player like Middleton or Ayton, both of whom would be coming from teams that also want to win now.
BS Meter: BS that Dallas can acquire either of these players. The Mavs will need to be more realistic given their limited cap space and trade assets.
Lakers Are 'Disinterested' in Pursuing Kyrie Irving in Free Agency
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There's been a lot of smoke around Kyrie Irving and the Los Angeles Lakers over the past year, although no fire as of yet.
Irving wanted to join the Lakers last summer, per The Athletic's Shams Charania, and Los Angeles offered the Brooklyn Nets two unprotected first-round picks and Russell Westbrook at this year's deadline before Irving was sent to the Dallas Mavericks.
LeBron James even spoke of his disappointment of not acquiring Irving the very next day in an interview with ESPN.
While Irving will become an unrestricted free agent this summer and the Lakers have the option to open up some significant cap space, don't expect both parties to go running toward each other with open arms.
According to The Athletic's Tim Cato, the Lakers are "disinterested" in pursuing Irving in free agency, adding that "to acquire him would require jettisoning several deadline acquisitions who have helped revitalize their season and land them in a second-round series against the Golden State Warriors."
Landing Irving could mean losing D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves in free agency, as well as turning down team options on players like Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt.
As talented as Irving is, losing three starters and one of the team's best shooters simply isn't worth it.
If Irving truly wants to sign with the Lakers, he could still do so at a significant discount, although that seems unlikely as well. His best chance at a big payday (and possibly his last) remains with the Mavericks.
BS Meter: We hope there's no BS here, as the Lakers' depth is one of the reasons why Los Angeles is off to a 2-1 series lead against the Warriors. Giving this up for Irving would be a mistake.
Knicks Monitoring Giannis Antetokounmpo's Status with Bucks
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Although it seems like yesterday that Giannis Antetokounmpo put to rest any speculation about his leaving the Milwaukee Bucks by signing a five-year, $228 million contract, we could be just two seasons removed from his next free-agency circus.
Given that the 28-year-old, two-time MVP will almost certainly turn down his player option in 2025-26 in order to sign a new long-term deal, this leaves just two guaranteed years left on his current contract.
Following a historically bad first-round exit to the No. 8-seeded Miami Heat in five games and now the firing of head coach Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks are in a bit of disarray just two years after winning a championship. Add in the upcoming free agency of Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez along with a lack of draft picks and young talent and things could suddenly take a dark turn in Milwaukee.
At least, that's what opposing teams are hoping.
As ESPN's Brian Windhorts reports, the New York Knicks are among the teams monitoring the Bucks and Antetokounmpo, seeing if one of the NBA's top players will sign an extension.
Windhorst also describes Antetokounmpo as a "nonrenewable resource" for Milwaukee, making the comparison to LeBron James with the Cleveland Cavaliers. This is to say, superstar players rarely agree to join small-market teams. Should such players show any sign of leaving in free agency, these teams may have no choice but to trade them and get something back before it's too late, a lesson the Cavs learned the hard way in 2010.
The Knicks have the first-round picks and players available to make a significant trade offer to Milwaukee should the opportunity even present itself.
For now, Antetokounmpo is safe in Milwaukee. Should this change, expect the Knicks to be among the first teams to call.
BS Meter: No BS. If there's even a sliver of a chance of Antetokounmpo becoming available over the next year, New York is one of the few teams that can make a big offer.
