2023 NBA Free Agency: Best Available Bigs and Their Top Landing Spots
The rest of the league is preparing for the offseason as the final eight teams battle through the second round of the playoffs. The NBA's "Wembanyama" draft lottery is on May 16, followed by the NBA draft on June 22. The team to win the lottery will presumably land a franchise center in Victor Wembanyama, which will directly impact the big-man free-agent class of 2023.
With a new collective bargaining agreement and more stringent rules for heavy spenders, front offices may need to take a different approach to team-building. That may directly impact the fate of the Golden State Warriors and Draymond Green, who can opt out of his final season to either re-sign or find a new home.
The list of starting-caliber bigs is short. The pool of impact free agents, in general, is relatively shallow. Most available centers project to stay with their existing teams, but a few may ultimately relocate in July.
Check out Part 1: Best Available NBA Free-Agent Guards and Their Top Landing Spots and Part 2: Best Available NBA Free-Agent Wings and Their Top Landing Spots
Will the Warriors Pay Draymond Again?
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Many Warriors fans feel the new collective bargaining agreement has targeted their franchise. And (in this case) they're not wrong. Golden State was spending at an uncomfortable rate for most of the other teams in the league, and now the Warriors need to decide how long they can keep their championship core together, starting with Green this summer.
Green has a $27.6 million player option that he needs to accept before July, which means he better have a very clear sense of where his next paycheck is coming from should he decline that number.
The Warriors can extend him for four additional seasons ahead of July. Green can opt in and start his extension with the 2024-25 season for as low as the minimum or as high as $38.6 million, adding three additional years. Or he can opt out and extend for four additional years starting in the $27.6-$31 million range for 2023-24.
The other path is opting out and re-signing as a free agent with the Warriors, which could run up to five years, starting between a minimum of $3.1 million to a maximum of $46.9 million maximum (based on a projected $134 million salary cap). Does a number in both years and salary work for both sides?
If not, can Green find another team willing to spend close to the amount he would need to decline to explore free agency? Most teams with spending power have younger rosters, like the San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz.
Some have playoff aspirations, and Green is well-respected for what he does to help the Warriors win. But he's 33 and a polarizing player who isn't for everyone, especially as a long-term investment.
With the possibility of no multiyear destination at his price, Green may opt in with Golden State for one more season.
Porziņģis Expected Back in Washington
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The Washington Wizards recently parted ways with top basketball executive Tommy Sheppard. Still, some competing front offices expect the Wizards' next hire to stay the course, expanding upon the team's current core of Bradley Beal, free agent Kyle Kuzma (once he declines his player option) and Kristaps Porziņģis.
Porziņģis has a similar decision to Green with a player option but at an even higher number ($36 million). He, too, can opt in or out and extend before July or opt out to explore free agency.
Many expect Porziņģis to end his contract and re-sign with Washington at a lower number for 2023-24 on a healthy multiyear deal, perhaps in the four-year, $134 million to five-year, $174 million range.
A new executive may take the Wizards in a different direction. Porziņģis, almost 28, would need one of the teams with cap space (that doesn't land Wembanyama in the draft) to target him. Most already have size, like Chet Holmgren in Oklahoma City, which might limit his options.
If so, Porziņģis may opt in and explore free agency in 2024 if the Wizards aren't looking to commit long-term.
Vučević Also Back in Chicago?
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The overarching theme of 2023 free agency may be the top players re-signing with their current teams. Nikola Vučević may not buck that trend in Chicago with the Bulls.
While Chicago didn't make the playoffs this season, the franchise has no clear path to replace Vučević if he leaves in free agency. With almost $90 million invested in Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball, the Bulls won't have significant cap space this summer.
Vučević is coming off a $22 million salary, which could be his range to stay in Chicago; he could even sign an extension starting at up to $26.4 million before ever reaching free agency.
At 32, he might not make sense for most teams with cap space—perhaps the Rockets would go after him if they decide to go in a very different direction (including a run at James Harden). Otherwise, he's probably looking at the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE), which projects to be $12.2 million.
Chicago likely feels like it needs Vučević, and that's probably the best path for the veteran center to get his next contract.
Christian Wood Likely Moving On
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Assuming the Dallas Mavericks bring back Kyrie Irving, they need to surround him and Luka Dončić with athletes, defenders and shooters.
Wood may be two of the three, but the franchise may look instead for more of a defensive presence. While he's eligible for an extension through the end of June starting at $17.2 million, he may need to find a new home instead.
At 27, he could have suitors from the many teams with cap room, including two of his former teams—the Pistons (who need shooting) and the Rockets. If he can't find a team with space, Wood will seek a team's NTMLE in the $12.2 million range, such as that of the Portland Trail Blazers, Charlotte Hornets or Bulls.
Poeltl a 'Lock' in Toronto
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Per multiple sources around the league, the Toronto Raptors are a "lock" to bring back center Jakob Poeltl, whom the team initially drafted at No. 9 in 2016. He was a necessary sacrifice in 2018, sent to the San Antonio Spurs in a package for Kawhi Leonard.
The Spurs sent him back to Toronto in February, and the Raptors didn't give up a protected 2024 first-round pick to rent his services for a few months. While Toronto has several decisions to make this offseason concerning the future of Pascal Siakam, O.G. Anunoby, Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr., pencil Poeltl back with the team.
The question will be price, and Poeltl may not find significant interest from the teams with cap space, likely placing him in the NTMLE range. That might lead Toronto to pay him in the $13-15 million starting range.
Other Free Agents
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Teams should find plenty of quality rotation bigs available in free agency this offseason. P.J. Washington, who is more of a small-ball 4/5, is the top restricted free agent. The Hornets seem committed to bringing him back (along with Miles Bridges, who didn't play last season).
Brook Lopez was in contention for Defensive Player of the Year, and while the Milwaukee Bucks have changed head coaches (parting ways with Mike Budenholzer), Lopez is a vital part of that team's core.
The LA Clippers have the rights to bring back Mason Plumlee. So do the Minnesota Timberwolves with Naz Reid, though the team is heavily invested in Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert. Competing teams are keeping an eye on Reid's situation.
Andre Drummond probably opts out of his $3.4 million option with the Bulls, though that wouldn't preclude him from re-signing.
The Magic may move on from Jonathan Isaac, whose contract lost most of its guarantee protections with his multiple injuries. The Los Angeles Lakers must decide on the $10.3 million team option for Mo Bamba.
The number of serviceable big men likely to be available for as low as the minimum is too long to list.
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